Futureye

Opinions are like Assholes

2011-10-04T22:31:00.000-07:00

One of the opinion articles in the WSJ today perfectly illustrates why the ruling class of so-called experts is despised by the masses.

Aid North Korea's Victims
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204612504576610551421032670.html?mod=WSJAsia_hpp_MIDDLE_Video_Third

The article advocates the US set up a refugee program in Beijing to help escaping North Koreans reach freedom and thereby hasten the collapse of the Hermit Kingdom.

I agree. NGOs should help escaping North Koreans as they pass through China. And yes - if vast numbers were to begin escaping - it would weaken the regime.

BUT and here's the point this idiot has not considered: If such a policy were openly publicised, and it DID have the intended effect...

What would such a madman do if he felt his grip on power slipping away? (Not to mention relations with China - if the US embassy in Beijing were a known asylum and transit point for North Koreans to the US)

It could very well lead to a full-scale invasion by the North. An invasion that could likely set off a regional war involving the Six Parties (US. China, Russia, Japan, North & South Korea) at the very least.

I think anybody proposing a strategy that would threaten the North Korean dictator better sit silently and patiently consider the kind of maniac they're dealing with and prepare for the consequences.

There are only a few ways to bring him down -- and none of them is very palatable. From most aggressive to least:
1. An all out invasion by the US, Korea and Japan.
2. A CIA-coup like the one in Tehran in 1953. Or
3. ---and this seems to be the path North Korea's neighbors have chosen--- let conditions get so bad inside North Korea that A. the the people finally rise up and overthrow their dictator or B. the system finally collapses under its own weight when it can no longer even feed the army.

Is such a strategy a terrible thing to do? Yes. Absolutely, but the consequences of being more aggressive might mean a war that could consume Asia, set it back a generation and end life for 100,000,000 people or more!

So much for the opinions of so-called "experts"....

The Euro On One Leg And Losing Its Balance

2011-09-29T17:17:00.000-07:00

Germans Reconsider Ties to Europe

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204138204576598643746175236.html?mod=WSJ_hp_us_mostpop_read

The article has chilling implications.

How long till the return of the Mark, the Franc, Lira, Peso, Guilder (Netherlands), Markka (Finland), Krone (Denmark), Drachma etc...?

And just how will the exit take place?

Because the writing is definitely on the proverbial wall: The Germans -- the bulwarks and principal backers (read financiers) of the Euro -- are wavering in their resolve.

Sentiment, or the mood of the markets, is something wise investors watch. Now - it may be time to watch the mood of Germany toward the Euro because when pessimism about the Euro becomes widespread - the end of the Euro is insight.

And when the leaders of Europe begin vehemently denying a return to national currencies - it is imminent. DUCK. Run for cover. Cut any exposure to Europe and prepare for the real Financial Tsunami to hit.

EUROPE --- Repeating History: More World Wars?

2011-09-26T00:38:00.000-07:00

Criticism of America is popular, ubiquitous and most-often well-deserved. And because it is the central actor on the world stage, it is also the easiest target.

But what of Europe? Remember - those people who consider themselves the paragons of a higher humanity, greater sense of justice and who seem to make the world's luxury goods eat equally well....

Are also the Idiots who've plunged the world into - not one - but TWO world wars. And as the threat of a disorderly breakup of the Euro (which is a question of When - not If) grows greater by the day ---- it may well be Full-Of-Itself Europe that AGAIN plunges the world into chaos.

Below is a quote from an article in the WSJ that accurately illustrates the risks to Europe --- A sort of Damned if it does and damned if it doesn't scenario in regard to Greece's bankruptcy:

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204422404576593122004251398.html

"The cost to Greece of exiting the euro could be up to 20% of GDP, according to Credit Suisse estimates. But once the taboo of euro exit is broken, other fiscally troubled countries will be at risk of similarly catastrophic bank runs, raising the specter of a disorderly euro break-up. That could trigger losses of up to €300 billion in core euro-zone banks and €630 billion among peripheral countries' banks, Credit Suisse estimates."

And if that happens, the vaunted Europe will likely sink back into a second Dark Age. At least in such a state of barbarity, they are less likely to be a menace to the world again anytime soon.

Twilight of America: Waiting in a vacuum...

2011-09-18T23:37:00.000-07:00

Most people would consider this fantasy, but America is already no longer the great superpower. The signs are everywhere. Daily. Problem is, because most people cannot conceive of such a world, it is not even within the realm of possibility in most minds.

Like an "OFF LIMITS" sign hangs inside the brain.

But, push the sign aside, embrace the possibility and the signs are EVERYwhere.

Just today, there are two articles in WSJ. Most people probably read and pass on thinking "Oh, that was interesting/sad/great...." Whatever the individual sentiment. But failing to see the connection.

Hong Kong is planning for the DEpegging of its dollar to the US.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424053111904060604576574640464933236.html?mod=WSJAsia_hpp_LEFTTopStories

Then there is an article about America's aging military hardware.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424053111904103404576561053811426640.html

Two paragraphs really tell the story in a nutshell:

"The Aegis guided-missile cruiser, a warship designed to counter the threat of Soviet warplanes armed with antiship missiles, entered service in 1983. Today, the bridges of older Aegis ships are reminiscent of the video arcades of the 1980s: monochromatic consoles with push-button controls. "The systems that we are replacing are Commodore 64 technology," says Navy Capt. Brian Eckerle, invoking the primitive home computer to describe ongoing efforts to modernize Cold War-era ships.

One Air Force pilot describes the navigation systems in his unit's C-130 cargo planes, which entered service nearly three decades ago, as "antiquated." A navigator in his unit, he says, bought an off-the-shelf Global Positioning System device that can better provide weather information and the latest civil aviation notices, and even check the accuracy of the government-issued navigation system."

When commercicaly available technology is superior to the elite military goods - you know the powers that be are asleep. The important takeaway is to note the inflection point has probably already passed. America is probably already no longer in control of the seas in Asia.

And...

The US dollar is already no longer the world reserve currency. IN FACT. Yet, the world continues in its fantasy that it is. Why? - because most of us have never known a world any different. We simply have trouble imagining it is even possible or fear what it might mean.

Even those who hate America - like an opposition party in parliament - are often at a loss when faced with the possibility of ruling.

So the world sits and waits for a new world leader or leaders, or whatever system will emerge. Meanwhile - it is just easier to pretend nothing has changed.

Business-Enviro Trend To Watch

2011-09-12T21:23:00.000-07:00

The Wall Street Journal has what seems to be just another article about Foreign Direct Investment by an internet company - Google. But it is much more profound than that. Welcome to the Enviro-Business Model.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424053111904836104576560551005570810.html

Companies all over the world have been shaving and sawing off costs everywhere they can for a long time.
Old News. People call these frictions. Or basically anything that inhibits or slows down, any barrier to business.

Whether that means more time, more money, more materials, more info processing, higher labor costs, operational costs.... Everything is on the chopping block.

And this article points to the next trend: Enviro-Restructuring. That is, businesses looking for ways to make their business more harmonious with nature so as to save money with the ultimate aim of becoming more competitive.

In Google's case, they've come to the not-hard-to-understand conclusion that their data centers eat up an enormous amounts of energy. Energy that impacts their expenses and competitive position vis-a-vis rivals.

Solution? Locate the data centers somewhere cold. Where the ambient temperature helps cool the servers.

When you think about it, it's so perfectly logical one almost wonders why it hasn't been done already. Why? Because in the West, since the Industrial Revolution and the advent of Germ Theory and vaccines, we have tended to ignore nature.

There has been a lot of arrogance. A real attempt to defy and live beyond the laws of nature. What has followed in its path is a destruction and degradation of the planet. And of course, the reaction to that - Environmental Extremism.

But I see a reversal. A tacit, quiet admission. Tentative. But unmistakable. Business is realising that while it has never been cost effective - now the competitive pressures are laying bare costs that were formerly hidden or ignored.

Internet companies are truly on the leading edge of so MANY trends that are reshaping our world, but look to see more and more companies around the world following Google's lead.

First it will be internet and other technology companies. But within a year or two it should start to broaden to other industries.

Here's the takeaway: Is your company ready when this wave hits? Or will you be left behind?
Watch the wave...

Conventional Thinkers ALWAYS Get It Wrong In Times Of Change

2011-08-21T02:13:00.000-07:00

http://english.aljazeera.net/indepth/opinion/2011/08/2011816104945411574.html

Nouriel Roubini is Chairman of Roubini Global Economics, Professor of Economics at the Stern School of Business, New York University, and co-author of the book Crisis Economics.

WOW!
You'd think a big wig like that should know something. But don't be fooled. He doesn't know what he's talking about because...

He is a conventional thinker in times of extraordinarily breathtaking change. Not a recipe for accurate, actionable thinking.

He is feeding us prescriptions from the past. Like a Hollywood writer who's long since run out of material, he just keeps writing the same story with changed names.

He misdiagnosis the problem as Capitalism. No. Capitalism is fine. Alive and well. It is Government which can no longer meet the needs of a changing world. A world that is becoming one big market. It is government that is standing in the way of progress on nearly every front.

It is government which steals vast amounts of our money at gun-point and then squanders it on the most unbelievably inane and ghastly projects. It is government which has bankrupted itself with greed and the most grotesque mismanagement of resources possible.

So gross in fact, many times the return on capital by government is not even 1 - 1, but negative.

And we will not have a 1930's style depression. No. This will be a long soft, recession, more reminiscent of the 1970s. The West or center of the empire is now beginning its own lost decade like Japan. Only without the benefit of huge piles of savings.

He is right. Many people in the middle class ARE losing ground. But that is because they've been overpaid in protected markets. Markets which governments can no longer protect as they become deeper and more integrated. More integrated as they become ever more exposed to global competition. That is why the Middle class are losing ground.

And Roubini's MIS-diagnosis, and MAL-prescription that we return to policies and ways of thinking from the past are a good example of why the old adage "Ivory-tower idiot" is still so apt.

Riots and Protests Everywhere - WHY?

2011-08-12T00:31:00.000-07:00

As the title suggests, there are demos and riots happening all over the globe. And most of them share a common theme. Or rather two...

See if you see the pattern in these various exhibits:

A. Recent demo in NY against Wall Street in particular and the rich in general. Message: The rich should pay more tax. Submessage: People protesting should be getting that money.

B. British riots. We hear there is some a whiff of race and a dollop of police brutality, but the real chicken in the pot seems to be about "class". 'About the exploitation of the working class by the owning class'.
Message: The owning class needs to 'give' to the "exploited".

C. 'Watts (L.A.) remembers 1965. As they reflect, many say the problems of poverty that fed those riots haven't been addressed or improved. There are fears of a repeat.

D. Riots in Israel continue... They are outraged that market forces have made it too expensive for many to live in the posh, cultured areas. Message: The government should take money from somebody and give it to them - subsidize their lifestyle.

E. And in Chile. (University) Students are demanding the government make their education free.

What these all have in common:

The President of Chile summed it well when he told the students: 'You ask for free education, but someone has to pay for that.' He went on to point out that if he gave them what they were asking for, the poor would also end up paying for the relatively well-to-do students.

And that is the crux of every demo in this first list : They want some other class of people to subsidize their living.

These are the GIMME DEMOS.

Then there is another set of demos with a separate theme:

In Japan people are demonstrating against their government's secrecy about the extent of the nuclear fall out. (Interesting this is happening right after the Hiroshima and Nagasaki anniversaries...)

Then, there is the ongoing story in the Middle East.
In this latter group, the common theme is DISTRUST. In Japan they want transparency and accountability. In the Middle East they are demanding Transparency, Accountability and Equality of opportunity.

The Difference?

The demos in first group LOOK TO GOVERNMENT FOR SOLUTIONS to problems of living they can't or don't want to deal with on their own.

The second group realises, GOVERNMENT IS THE PROBLEM. And they are demanding reform.

Yes. Riots and Demos are taking place across the globe, but not all demos are created equally.

The Difference Between Israeli and Arab Protests

2011-07-30T19:16:00.000-07:00

http://english.aljazeera.net/news/middleeast/2011/07/201173020161903849.html
Equality!
A much vaunted word. Bandied about on banners and bulletins. But take a closer look and people are often talking about VERY difference ideas.

In the various Arab countries, the fight, the laudable and noble protests almost all started over a minor grievance. Security forces reacted brutally using live ammunition on peaceful, unarmed civilians.

As a result - the protests widened their original intent to demanding the government be tossed out.

But behind, the initial and the latter, broader demands was one common element. People wanted an end to corruption and ---here it comes--- an equal opportunity under the law.

Because from one country to another people struggle with basic rights. Certain favored groups have the power and the others are left forever to live on the bottom rungs of the caste.

In Bahrain, for example, the ruling MINORITY bars the majority from many, many opportunities. And to insure loyalty, the monarchy imports security forces from Pakistan.

Yes - this is very broad brush, but essentially all these people are saying is: Give me a fair chance. I'll study. I'll do the work. Just give me the same shot this other group has: EQUALITY of OPPORTUNITY.

BUT....
In Israel, they are taking to the streets for very different reasons. Something called: "Social Justice".

One protester summed it up well when he said: "...We want affordable housing, health, education and welfare." Translation? We want that which we haven't earned. We demand others subsidize our lifestyle. We demand our entitlements. And here it comes: We demand EQUALITY of RESULT.

We want to share equally in what OTHERS have created!

And isn't that the whole thrust of socialist dogma? That no matter how hard or smart someone works, no matter how much value she creates - everyone should receive the same payment. The same reward. Whether she works hard or not at all.

And I might add, this is also the problem in America. Too many people have their hand out. Too many people are protesting, begging and throwing fireballs at the other team in order to get their sticky paws on loot and goods they didn't earn.

Today, like Israelis, when Americans talk of Equality, they most often have the second - the socialist, entitlement, welfare grasping - meaning in mind.

Jobless Recovery and the Slide to Socialism

2011-07-26T21:40:00.000-07:00

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424053111904772304576468820582615858.html?mod=WSJAsia_hpp_LEFTTopStories

The great media outlets are finally waking up to something that's been apparent to thinking people for years... Recoveries no longer presage JOBS.

The sad thing is, the WSJ is starting to sound like La Liberation, (The organ of the Socialist Party of France).

The article blames the jobless recovery on companies - painting a picture of them reaping mega profits while creating "disposable workers".

But there is another side to the story: A businessman who WANTS to hire but who's decided NOT to.

Why....?

A businessman and would-be employer explained the reasons why he would NOT be hiring. And it had NOTHING to do with the qualifications of applicants or the fact that his business DID in fact need workers.

So - why the hell was he refusing to hire? Isn't this akin to some sort of business suicide?

Nope!

To summarize his article:
As a businessman I MUST be able to control costs. This is fundamental. And because the government keeps increasing the entitlements, payments, taxes, obligations and various and sundry requirements for me to hire and keep an employee,

THE GOVERNMENT MANDATED EXPENSES HAVE BECOME A BLANK CHECK I CAN NO LONGER AFFORD TO SIGN.

That's it in a nutshell. Since he can't control the ever-increasing, ever more onerous government imposed costs and obligations, the only way to achieve some level of cost-control is to CEASE hiring.

Sad, but true.

And while his business suffers from lack of qualified people on staff, ie growth is stunted. He's chosen this as the lesser evil to the voracious dragon in his office suite that threatens to devour his whole business if he just goes about hiring people when he needs them.

He ends his essay with this: "From where I sit, the government's message is unmistakable: Creating a new job carries a punishing price."

Consider this situation multiplied millions upon millions of times and the jobless recovery suddenly makes perfect sense.

Fancy, intellectual sounding arguments are often very seductive and can easily mask the true, often simple causes of problems.

Could this man's explanation reveal the real underlying cause?

I believe so.

His original essay is included below:
By MICHAEL P. FLEISCHER

With unemployment just under 10% and companies sitting on their cash, you would think that sooner or later job growth would take off. I think it's going to be later—much later. Here's why.

Meet Sally (not her real name; details changed to preserve privacy). Sally is a terrific employee, and she happens to be the median person in terms of base pay among the 83 people at my little company in New Jersey, where we provide audio systems for use in educational, commercial and industrial settings. She's been with us for over 15 years. She's a high school graduate with some specialized training. She makes $59,000 a year—on paper. In reality, she makes only $44,000 a year because $15,000 is taken from her thanks to various deductions and taxes, all of which form the steep, sad slope between gross and net pay.

Daniel Henninger discusses how Robert Rubin and Alan Greenspan agree that Americans should send more of their paychecks to Washington. Also, Fannie and Freddie ask for more cash within weeks of an Obama pledge to end taxpayer rescues.

Before that money hits her bank, it is reduced by the $2,376 she pays as her share of the medical and dental insurance that my company provides. And then the government takes its due. She pays $126 for state unemployment insurance, $149 for disability insurance and $856 for Medicare. That's the small stuff. New Jersey takes $1,893 in income taxes. The federal government gets $3,661 for Social Security and another $6,250 for income tax withholding. The roughly $13,000 taken from her by various government entities means that some 22% of her gross pay goes to Washington or Trenton. She's lucky she doesn't live in New York City, where the toll would be even higher.
More

Employing Sally costs plenty too. My company has to write checks for $74,000 so Sally can receive her nominal $59,000 in base pay. Health insurance is a big, added cost: While Sally pays nearly $2,400 for coverage, my company pays the rest—$9,561 for employee/spouse medical and dental. We also provide company-paid life and other insurance premiums amounting to $153. Altogether, company-paid benefits add $9,714 to the cost of employing Sally.

Then the federal and state governments want a little something extra. They take $56 for federal unemployment coverage, $149 for disability insurance, $300 for workers' comp and $505 for state unemployment insurance. Finally, the feds make me pay $856 for Sally's Medicare and $3,661 for her Social Security.

When you add it all up, it costs $74,000 to put $44,000 in Sally's pocket and to give her $12,000 in benefits. Bottom line: Governments impose a 33% surtax on Sally's job each year.

Because my company has been conscripted by the government and forced to serve as a tax collector, we have lost control of a big chunk of our cost structure. Tax increases, whether cloaked as changes in unemployment or disability insurance, Medicare increases or in any other form can dramatically alter our financial situation. With government spending and deficits growing as fast as they have been, you know that more tax increases are coming—for my company, and even for Sally too.

Companies have also been pressed into serving as providers of health insurance. In a saner world, health insurance would be something that individuals buy for themselves and their families, just as they do with auto insurance. Now, adding to the insanity, there is ObamaCare.

Every year, we negotiate a renewal to our health coverage. This year, our provider demanded a 28% increase in premiums—for a lesser plan. This is in part a tax increase that the federal government has co-opted insurance providers to collect. We had never faced an increase anywhere near this large; in each of the last two years, the increase was under 10%.

To offset tax increases and steepening rises in health-insurance premiums, my company needs sustainably higher profits and sales—something unlikely in this "summer of recovery." We can't pass the additional costs onto our customers, because the market is too tight and we'd lose sales. Only governments can raise prices repeatedly and pretend there will be no consequences.

And even if the economic outlook were more encouraging, increasing revenues is always uncertain and expensive. As much as I might want to hire new salespeople, engineers and marketing staff in an effort to grow, I would be increasing my company's vulnerability to government decisions to raise taxes, to policies that make health insurance more expensive, and to the difficulties of this economic environment.

A life in business is filled with uncertainties, but I can be quite sure that every time I hire someone my obligations to the government go up. From where I sit, the government's message is unmistakable: Creating a new job carries a punishing price.

Mr. Fleischer is president of Bogen Communications Inc. in Ramsey, N.J.

An Uncomfortable Truth: Babies Are Amplifiers

2011-07-16T19:41:00.000-07:00

My partner wrote about this recently. That children are mirrors of their parents. Garnered quite a response. It was quite a thoughtful piece. Now - I'd like to explore another aspect of it. Babies and their moods.

You see - having a newborn is, well, a new experience. And of course, there is the inevitable guessing game whenever they cry. Is it this? Is it that? Or what about....? And on it goes until you happen upon the problem or combination of problems.

But have you ever noticed how babies can react to different people in dramatically different ways? And I'm sure everybody has heard the old cliche (which I believe to be true) that if kids and dogs like you, you're probably OK. But if they hate you, I'm going to be doubly on guard. Something's not right.

And we made a similar discovery during a tense moment some time back - and this is the point of this piece. When we are calm, it's easy to calm him. When one of us is upset, it is nearly impossible. He whines and cries, squirms and begs. But for what?

Toggle through all the possibilities. Needs changing? Nope. Hungry? No again. Tired? Still wrong. Pain or sickness? Negative.
Strike that. There is a sort of pain. More on that in a minute.

Enter the sitter/nanny, slash other care giver. The one outside the family. Ahhhh... And now the plot thickens.

It started very subtly. Sometimes when she would return from outside, kiddo would suddenly become fussy. Before that, with only Mommy and Daddy, he was fine. Happy. Contented.

Could it be? No.....
But the thought sticks in the back of your mind.
And of course, she is always complaining how fussy and difficult he is.
Hmmmm...

But the theory was finally confirmed when she was out sick for several days. During the times and activities when kiddo was usually hard-as-nails to live with, he played by himself. Without incident. Without drama.

Yes. Of course we knew she had some personal issues. But now we understand a painful and poignant reality: Babies are like amplifiers.

You remember the ones. Part of that music center. It took and greatly magnified the sound of an otherwise silent cassette or CD.

And so - apparently - babies are with OUR moods and dominant emotions. If we are full of inner turmoil, anger and unhappiness, they will broadcast it to the world. Forget calming them.

Maybe your kid is different, but that's our story.

Now - what to do about the sitter?

The Bali Series 5: Two-Tiered Pricing System

2011-04-12T10:17:00.000-07:00

As I originally contemplated writing this article, I was aware I was pissed off by something and wanted to have my say, but as I typed and edited I began to see that it was something bigger. And that's why it so bothered me.

There was a famous commercial many years ago in my country that showed a first nations man in full head dress with a tear running down his cheek. The tag line was: A Mind Is A Terrible Thing To Waste.

To this day - I don't remember what the advert was for, but I think that sums up why this upsets me. And why I'm writing. We could say - Indonesia is a terrible country to waste. But I'm getting ahead of myself.

This is actually a continuation of my Thinking of Living in Bali? series, but the ideas apply to the whole of Indonesia.

So, IF you are considering living in Bali/Indonesia, there is a very annoying aspect of life here. Something that is one of the banes of this country and especially pronounced in Bali.

And just today it hit me why I detest it so much. It is the practice of charging one price to locals (a lower one) and a significantly higher price to foreigners.

And I'm going to be brutally honest. It is the foreigner visitors themselves who often instigate and encourage this practice. They look at someone working hard, charging a fair price -- by this country's standards -- for some service.

They hear the price and immediately decide THAT'S NOT ENOUGH.

So they offer more!

"Oh you poor thing. We won't let you work for that." is the well-intentioned but foolish beginning.

I've seen this too many times to recount.

Yes - by Western standards - people here work for pennies. But --- and this is the point of this pointed post --- there is a reason WHY this is so.

Have we forgotten how hard many of our grand fathers and mothers were working - for pennies - before our countries developed?

But for a moment, let's go back to the locals and their sordid practice of maintaining a two-tiered pricing structure. And keep in mind, this has nothing to do with foreigners picking up their fair share of taxes or any other such (possibly) legitimate explanation.

It is ENVY. Many locals see the relatively rich Westerns (or should i say people from more developed countries?) who are comparatively better off than them.

Fine. But it is what they then choose to do with that envy that is the problem.
IF they said to themselves: "Damn, look at that dude with his hot girl, cool car and great life. I wanna be like him. I'm gonna work my ass off and make a better life for myself and my family."

If they say that, I'm their biggest fan and supporter. But that is not what many say.

Instead too many say: "Look at that rich foreigner. How can I get some of her money so I can have better life?"

In this way, there is direct link between envy and greed. And NO, Gordon Gekko is WRONG. Greed is NOT good. The profit motive is good. That is what has built our world. But -

Greed is a perversion of that good and natural desire which kills the will and creativity to growth, production and development.

And ENVY and GREED are two diseases Indonesians have in cancerous proportions. Hence - a two price structure.

But, while this does temporary damage to visitors and is an constant source of irritation and injustice to foreigners who live here,

it cripples the Indonesians.

It retards them because as this attitude has metastasized into their whole culture and AND THE REASON THEY TOLERATE their unbelievably corrupt government.

Many, (i hope not most) no longer look for ways to better themselves by hard, clever, creative work that produces a better good or service.

Instead...

They have developed a mentality of looking for ways to extort money from people who have it. The parking mafia is another great example that I'll come to in a moment...

And I believe THIS is one of the main ubiquitous attitudes which keeps Indonesia in the Dark Ages.
Retards it, its development, its people and stunts its future.

And makes it one of the laughing stocks of Asia.

It is also why Japan has bullet trains and Indonesia still runs trains from the 1930s,

and still doesn't even have the equivalent of a national expressway system. It still piddles along with a dilapidated set of railways and local roads.

It is still the 1950s.

Unbelievable? Yes. True? Yes. In Indonesia there is still no express way between it's two largest cities, Jakarta and Surabaya. That's right.

You have only locals highways that are notoriously narrow, dangerous and eternally congested with bicycles, motorbikes, peddle-taxis, peddler-carts, cars, buses, lorries and construction vehicles.

Amid this cacophonous mess, you still need to stop for trafic lights in every town and berg along the way.

Nor does it have a modern rail system.

Consider this:

Nozomi class bullet trains cover the distance from Tokyo to Osaka (about 550 kilometers) in 2 1/2 hours. If Indonesia had bullet trains, one could travel from Jakarta to Surabaya (796 km) in 3 hours 40 minutes.... And from Jakarta to Denpasar (1206 km) in 5 1/2 hours.

BUT...

the reality today is that from Jakarta to Denpasar (Bali) would take at least a day -- [by car or train] and likely longer with chronically common delays.

But that's not all:
In Indonesia, there is a common site on the streets you won't see in most other countries - parking men. These are men who stand in front of some shop or restaurant and literally help squeeze you into a parking space.

Because many streets are narrow, and the parking areas narrow as well, these men often serve the valuable function of helping people into the narrowest of spaces, then directing traffic to help them safely re enter the flow when they leave.

They often even ask you to leave you car in neutral so they can push it forward or backward to make room for another car to pass into or out of the parking area. And for this, they collect a fee from each car.

Fair enough.

BUT, there are also many occasions --- and this is why i call them the Parking Mafia --- when they perform no work, no function. Keep in mind, these are places that would be FREE parking in developed countries.

They simply collect a fee from you for ENTERING THEIR ZONE. They merely sit like a security guard and collect your money. But they provide no security.

The money they collect doesn't go beautify the city, plant trees, build roads, rails, hospitals, schools or feed the poor.

It goes in these mens pockets. And many of these men make hundreds and even thousands of dollars per month in a country where most people still live on a few dollars a day.

The system is tolerated because when someone refuses to pay, the parking mafia are known to retaliate: Things like keying your car.... or worse.

This is EXTORTION.

So, when Indonesians, especially the Balinese give up this self-defeating bid to extort money from the productive in order to subsidize their laziness. ..

When they give up and this weak, pathetic behavior and decide to start building their country by providing better goods and services in their businesses, THEN AND ONLY THEN

will they have the balls to begin

DEMANDING better government from their third-world idiot stand-ins for leaders. And they will have turned a corner and pushed the button on the Indonesian Renaissance.

Because... they will never eliminate corruption in their government until they give it up amongst themselves and against foreigners.

When they do, they will have high speed rail, a modern expressway system and streets that don't flood up to your waist every time it rains. In short - a modern country with quality services and infrastructure.

And they will be richer. Maybe richer than the people now visiting Indonesia...

I wonder how much longer they will slovenly accept the status quo? How long they will persist in their greed?
How long until they give up their pathetic attempts to get something for nothing?

Because until they do - they don't deserve better. And until they do - they will remain poor and retarded.

Until they do...

They will continue to live narrow, short, darkened lives --- as they deserve.

I wonder: Is that Karma?

Indonesia Scraps Medieval Treatment of Women

2011-04-07T05:06:00.000-07:00

They have talked about it forever. And finally written this into law - nearly 20 years after Singapore.

Of what do I speak?

The wretched law that says a foreign man married to an Indonesian woman must have a work visa in order to live and work in Indonesia!

A truly antiquated, backward, bigoted - and ultimately self-defeating law which inevitably results in many of the best and brightest women taking their brains, money and talents OUT of Indonesia.

That's about to change!

As soon as this becomes law, Indonesia will join the great majority of countries where marriage affords one the right to live and work freely and unhindered.

The key points of the New Law are as follows:

· If you marry an Indonesian citizen here, you will be entitled to Izin Tinggal Terbatas. After 2 years, you can convert it to Izin Tinggal Tetap (ITAP).

· If you have already been legally married for at least two years to an Indonesian citizen, you get an ITAP immediately. E.g. if you marry your Indonesian spouse in Australia and stay there for 2 years before coming to live in Indonesia, you are entitled to an ITAP immediately.

· If you have an ITAP because you are married to an Indonesian, you can work here without needing a work permit.

· If your children choose to keep their foreign nationality once they reach the age of 18, they are entitled to an ITAP and can work here.

· If your children were over 18 when the citizenship law was passed and never had Indonesian nationality, they are now entitled to an ITAP and can work.

· Foreigners who are legally married to Indonesians no longer need a `penjamin' (sponsor).

· The ITAP is valid for an unlimited period but needs to be renewed administratively every 5 years. There is no cost for this.

· If you already have an ITAP and your Indonesian spouse dies, you keep the ITAP.

· If you have an ITAP and you and your Indonesian spouse divorce before you have been married for 10 years, the ITAP is cancelled.

· If you have an ITAP and you and your Indonesian spouse divorce when you have been married for 10 years or more, you keep the ITAP.

Unfortunately we still have to have the re-entry permit. If you have an ITAP, you will be able to get, as now, a multiple re-entry permit that is valid for 2 years.

Now that the bill has been approved by the DPR it will go to SetNeg and then be signed by the President. However, it will take some time before the implementing regulations are drawn up and this law becomes effective.

Source : Milis APAB.

Just Point To Make Real Things Tell You Their Story...

2011-04-01T06:57:00.000-07:00

"The future is already here - it's just not very evenly distributed." --William Gibson

Science fiction has postulated and imagined what "augmented reality" would be like. Well - wonder no more: It's here...

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704739504576067780550250202.html?mod=WSJ_Tech_Below_Video

So what is it? And what does it mean to you and me?

Everything-

Let's jump straight to the end of the article and the most immediately profitable application. Because like any new technology, there is always the need to find a viable way to make money.

Otherwise - development just doesn't happen.

MEDICINE: Specifically remote monitoring.
Imagine you have a slightly sick relative who --in a perfect world-- would have around the clock home care or professional nursing staff at beck and call.

But due to strained budgets due to high labour costs, reality often dictates finding less costly solutions.

Until now - about the only option was to "leave em to their own devices" and hope for the best. Soon - you will be able to remotely monitor almost anything. Right on your mobile phone.

Whether they're upright? Heart rate? Asthma? etc... You name it - it can be monitored and you can be alerted if anything falls out of its normal range.

And that's not all. Even if you're healthy - apps could let you get a virtual check up with your mobile. Soon, we will enter the era of mobile/remote medicine. It won't totally eliminate the need to go to the hospital - just most of it.

Wouldn't you pay for that? I know i would.

But there are also sexier and juicier applications: Games are another avenue for development. And yet, it is other applications which promise to change our lives much more profoundly - and faster:

REAL ESTATE
Imagine being able to point your phone at a building and know who has property for rent or sale, for how much and who to contact? How about a virtual tour? A floor plan?

Have your own home and furniture's photos loaded? Hmmm... Wanna see how your stuff would look in that house or apartment?

I'd pay for that. How bout you?

SHOPPING
Or when you go shopping: There was recently a trial by Tissot Watches in London. Using Augmented Reality, customers were able to try on watches --virturally-- without entering the shop and enduring the high pressure sales...

Guess what - sales shot up 83%.

Oh, and sales probably shot up, because people could find the RIGHT watch so much faster and with less hassle...

EDUCATION
The possibilities are endless and mind boggling.
Welcome to the era of virtual teachers. One-on-One interaction. Customized education to fit your pace, learning style, dominant intelligence and idiosyncratic strengths and weaknesses.

If Einsteins brain was apparently noted for its rich connections, in future this will not be uncommon anymore.

Truly accelerated learning. That is fun and relevant.

The emphasis on memorization will fade into oblivion to be replaced by students producing results. Real world results.

And out of this, I see a revolutionary new model of education emerging which turns the current dead factory era method on its head. And oh - it can't come soon enough....

I see this technology as so fundamentally becoming a part of our lives that in 10 years we will wonder how we ever lived with out it. Kinda like the internet and mobile phones have become today.

Because as i read about this, I am simultaneously pulled in two directions at once: On the one hand, I can only begin to imagine the impact such technologies as this will have on our lives.

How it will change the way we do business, live and play...?

But I also wonder, with the rapidity and ubiquity of change technology is bringing in its tsunami - How will I explain to the younglings in 10 years how we used to live Pre-Mobile phone or Pre-Internet....??

It will seem to them as distant and faded as it is for me to watch jerky black and white film clips of the early 1900s: WWI, the fall of empires and the Roaring 20's....

A time when most people lived on farms, not cities, electricity and phones were still not common for most. Ditto running water and indoor toilets.

What a difference a hundred years makes!

The Government of Kansas City is Lucid - For Now...

2011-04-01T06:20:00.000-07:00

This is what happens when taxes are DRASTICALLY reduced --> Prosperity: A backwater becomes a teaming metropolis - alive.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704530204576235163052635494.html?mod=WSJASIA_newsreel_technology

In a nutshell, the article says that Kansas City Kansas, the poor dismal brother to Kansas City, Missouri began experiencing a dramatic turnaround in its fortunes a few years ago when it decided to --- GASP --- offer tax incentives.

And now - as a further sign of its progress - the mighty Google has decided to bestow upon it the fastest internet in the country.

But while this is a good thing, one must keep the bigger picture in mind. Lowering taxes is merely government's way of belatedly and usually begrudgingly admitting that business pays all taxes and creates all prosperity.

An admission that governments usually only make in desperation as they acknowledge that without business, they (the government) will eventually cease to exist. Plain and simple.

Yet - history continues to demonstrate that as soon as governments get a taste of the prosperity companies create, they almost always begin killing the golden goose with their greed for higher taxes, corruption and utter bankruptcy of competence due to their lack of even the most fundamental understanding of economics.

And the cycle will continue, my friends.... Until one fine day, the citizens which have been milked like cows will use their intelligence to sprout metaphorical wings and fly away never to return. Then what will be the fate of parasitical governments?

Kidnapping: The New Tax Collection Technic

2011-03-05T10:47:00.000-08:00

How long till the practice of government kidnapping and torture morphs into something that could make any one of us a target?

http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0804522/
In the 2007 movie, Rendition is kidnapping and torture, by --who else?-- in order to extract information from a suspected "terrorist". Of course, the whole point of the movie is that the guy they kidnapped had NO political inclinations, ideas and probably no interest in anybody's politics.

Just a guy trying to make a dollar and live his life. Until...

And then of course the story becomes all-too-familiar: Innocent, unsuspecting guy then DEVELOPS ideas and political aspirations as a result of the welcome and hospitality he endured at the hands of his torturers.

So what's the point of all this?

With all the hooopla about tax havens being blacklisted, governments around the world simultaneously running out of money AND getting more desperate to follow so-called "tax-cheats", it's not much of a logical leap to see the day when "terrorism" will be replaced by "catching tax-cheats" or whatever demonized moniker is invented.

Because with the greater mobility of money and with the impoverished governments of the world becoming ever more grasping and rapacious, we may begin to see governments using tried and tested methods from one field in another. And I mean --- why not? From their perspective, it's just an economical use of resources.

Or rather, once the "terrorism" era is over (or at least on the wane), those agencies and people who've developed those competencies will not just lie down and die.

No. As always, they will morph into something else. It's the survival instinct. They will find another mission --- so to speak.

And what will that new mission be?

Well, if they thought they were doing God and Country service "protecting it from terrorists", how much more fanatical and bloody can they become if a new group of people is identified as those who would single-handedly destroy the fabric of society and bring civilization to ruin?

Enter the so called "tax-cheat". And remember, just as the definitions of "terrorist" are fuzzy and shifting, those for tax-cheats will likely be even more vague. So vague and shifting as to ensnare anyone.

Consider: What's to stop some arrogant government with the power to actually carry it out, and one which has actually shown it is immune to any moral limitations in the past --- to freely violate anyone's rights, debase and besmear any creed --- if it serves their current agenda -- their survival?

IF they can convince themselves there's a threat --- a threat to their very survival. And of course, their survival is the ultimate law unto itself. What will stop them?

I mean, why not turn the whole apparatus used to combat one brand of perceived threat to neutralize another?

It's simple. People could be snatched off the streets of almost anywhere in the world and held and tortured ..... until some alleged tax-bill is paid?

Or until the names of banks or the whereabouts of other hitherto unknown assets to come to light, "so they can be properly assessed and rightfully taxed"

How long? And where will it begin?

I can assure you, it will begin with someone gray. That is, someone high enough profile, but maybe not especially well-liked. One who has enemies.

And Assets!

But which do not directly benefit the country in question. Gray also meaning someone who may not always "pay his fair share". He or she will be someone who is very astute and aggressive in paying the absolute minimum tax. She will likely use every know tax "loophole" known.

In other words, he or she will play the game with the tax collector, and with superior intelligence and diligence BEAT the tax-man at his own game.

Yes. Someone who will be easy to point the finger at. And when the political temperature is right --- when enough of the tax consumers feel their government OWES them and they're NOT getting their due ... and government can cleverly point the finger at the "Tax-Cheats" ---then the practice will begin.

I see that day not far away...

But just as taxes started out only for the rich, rendition too, will trickle down. Until... it makes its way to a neighborhood near you --- maybe yours.

How Many Times Have You Received An Email Like This?

2011-02-18T10:03:00.000-08:00

I buy things over the internet. Lots of us do. Natural - right?

And sometimes we also no longer want something or we realise we're paying for something we're no longer using. Our needs change or whatever. So we cancel. And that's when we get emails like the following.

I hate them. Do you?

Email From A Corporate Giant Responding To My Cancellation Request.
I've deleted personal info to protect the privacy of the guilty and myself.

From: "tickets@.com"
To: @yahoo.com
Sent: Friday, 18 February 2011 22:56:58
Subject: Update to Ticket ID: LGB-14745726

Hello ,

Thank you for contacting .com with your request. I noticed that you have been a valued member of the .com family for several months now and wanted to see if there were any outstanding issues on your account that I may be able to assist you with. Would you mind elaborating on exactly what problems you were experiencing on the account? I would be more than happy to assist you in any way that I can to fix any unresolved issues.

Please give me a call back at 866-XXX-2867, extension 1012 at your convenience (when the phone greeting comes on, just input "1012" and it'll transfer you right away). Or you can reply to this email.

I look forward to your reply and assisting you further with your account.

Have a great day!

Sincerely,

Steven G..com LLC
http://support..com/
Available 24 hours a day at 1-866-XX-XXXXX

I'm sure i'm not the only one who's ever gotten an email like that. How did you feel?
Well, I can tell you how i felt. Because...

Here's the letter I WANTED TO SEND and the letter I WISH EVERY CORPORATE MANAGER WERE FORCED TO READ.

"Hello Steven G.,

I really am not sure how to respond to this email as i was expecting a confirmation of cancellation.

Because - while your emails sounds friendly and helpful, i get the feeling you're refusing to process my cancellation until i call you and explain my 'reason'.

Is that correct?

Or do i have it wrong?
If so, I am really disappointed.

Yes. I know you're just doing your job trying to keep a customer, but by putting this extra step between me and cancellation, you are effectively trying to block my way as i attempt to leave the building.

And that is insulting. Your managers who put you up to this should realise there is segment of the population that highly resents that. And I am among them.

Because --- by trying to frustrate and delay my leaving, you are actually achieving the very opposite of what your managers intended.

You see, i already shared my (embarrassing) reason with some some sort of customer response thingee yesterday. Apparently you didn't receive that. And in that I gave xxxxx a glowing recommendation. And Yesterday HAD EVERY INTENTION OF LATER RETURNING.

But now...

Your email is single-handedly making me determined to never do business with you again and to share with every body I know just how hard it is to leave xxxxxx....

You see --- Your corporate wizards mistake is in NOT offering me the express cancellation ALONG with the option to talk to someone about my issue. Offer choices. Customers love choice.

In their infinite wisdom they've decided that most people can be, bullied and intimidated into staying put ---either through the unpleasantness of having to make that phone call and explain themselves like 5 year old child or because the company really can diagnose the issue, solve the problem and save the day.

But they forget that there is a sizable portion of the population that is roundly insulted and incensed by such treatment. And it has the very opposite effect to the intended one.

And since you all seem to need the simplest things repeated again and again, let me spell it out once again for your hard-headed moronically ignorant managers:

By placing the talk-it-out session between me and canceling you have effectively stood in my way as i try to get off the ride. You are trying to get me to pony up and stay on the ride indefinitely.

I resent that. And it will be front and center next time i want to do business with a company like yours... I will remember this little bit of unpleasantness and patronisation and will roundly avoid you."

End of email I WANTED TO SEND*******

BUT i know it is human nature.

Actually the managers have made a very astute decision. They know that such tactics actually WORK and work very well on large segments of the population. They have ----from a profit standpoint---- wisely calculated that pissing people like me off doesn't really matter. There are enough sheep to keep their pockets full of green.

Imagine if someone did that to you in public place...

Stopped you and asked you why you were leaving, then told you that you'd have to go explain yourself to so and so.....before you would be allowed to leave.

What would you do?

Yep. You'd probably try to humor them and be diplomatic in the beginning. But then imagine this happened in every shop. Almost Every time.
In the beginning you might say something like : "Hey pal, it was a blast, but I've had enough."

But eventually, your patience may just run out.

And the next time, you might just push the guy out of the way. And if he still persisted, you might call for help or bust him in the chops.

Knowing that : Here's the email I DID send:

"Hello Steven G.,

I really am not sure how to respond to this email as i was expecting a confirmation of cancellation.

Because - while your emails sounds friendly and helpful, i get the feeling you're refusing to process my cancellation until i call you and explain my 'reason'.

Is that correct?

Me"

End of Real Email *********

And if I don't receive the appropriate confirmation of cancellation within a half day, I will stop payment at the funding source.

The Next Wave in PCs is Here

2011-02-17T04:23:00.000-08:00

I've been talking with my partner about this for some time - discussing what pcs, laptops or whatever you want to call them will look like in the years to come.

Well --- sometimes the future hits your right between the eyes sooner than you thought --- it's here. Albeit in a VERY primitive form.

First the link:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703373404576148190633168766.html?mod=WSJASIA_hpp_MIDDLEFourthNews

Here's the story in a nutshell: Motorola has come up with a smart phone slash pc. It's a pc or rather the brains of a pc in a handheld phone.

So how do you use it?

You can use it as a stand alone or plug it into what's called a dock. That is a brainless pc. A pc without any of the stuff that usually makes it a pc. It's just a keyboard with a screen. It has no CPU. No memory... Zilch.

But - plug in the smart phone/pc and the thing comes alive.

Here's the catch. As is always true with any new technology, it is primitive and clumsy at first. Remember the first calculators? The first modems, browsers or search engines?

Translation: It can do some things, but not all that a regular laptop or pc could do. And what is does do, it doesn't do as well, as fast or as efficiently as the real deal.

BUT and this is the big but. It points to the shape of things to come. You see, as memory and processing capacity continue to grow by leaps and bounds, my partner and i have discussed many times that eventually, everything would likely devolve into the phone.

Your TV, computer, music station, phone, internet etc. etc... would all eventually be scrunched into the size of a phone. Problem is : While we humans find those size gadgets handy to carry around, we don't feel the same way when it come to using them. Such mundane things such as typing become a real bitch on something that small. Especially when you have elephant fingers like me.

So - imagine this scene. In a few short years, everybody carries her own pc/phone all-in-one work/play/communication device in her pocket or purse. She arrives at the office. The pc on her desk is a dummy. A box without a brain like the scarecrow in the Wizard of Oz. She sits down docks her pc, and off to work she goes...

Or she finds herself in an airport. No pcs. Just dummies to dock into... You get the picture.
And on the run - she has the same functionality, albeit on that annoyingly small screen.

BUT what comes next?

What happens when everybody tires of those damn brainless boxes that either have to be carried around (just like laptops today), or the idiot boxes on their desks.

What happens when people get used to having the world at their fingertips and now want that same desktop experience without the box?

That's when something really interesting could be in store: Ever seen a hologram? You know - one of those things at the museum. It's just a projection - in thin air. You see an image, and as you move, the image seems to move or change too.

Hmmmmm.... What if something like that could be perfected to create that all-elusive keyboard and monitor for your smart pc/phone?

Imagine it: You hit a button or activate a voice command for Hologram, or whatever trade name it's called by. It deploys. You see a purple (that's what i imagine anyway..) mini-genie-like apparition. It's a keyboard that can be displayed on any flat surface in front of you and a screen that projects into the air in front of you.

But here's the best part:

With such a technology, by adjusting the angles from which it is visible, you can make the keyboard ---and hence every keystroke--- 100% private. Only you could see it because it would be uniquely adjusted for the angle of your eyes only. Same with the monitor.

You could be in the middle of the most crowded airport, office, maglev train or hotel --- and with the appropriate encryption--- having an absolutely private session.

Ready to leave? Turn off hologram and put it away or continue in hand held mode...

Women Want Babies. Men Want Sons & Daughters

2011-01-24T07:34:00.000-08:00

Kiddo's here. Yea! Yippie! Yahoooo!
OK - now come the night feedings, constant changing, crying consoling, holding, cuddling and all the rest that goes with welcoming the cute, screaming new member of the family.

Especially with the first kiddo -- overnight -- everything changes.

Think about it. Just a week ago [before kiddo's arrival], it was just the two of you. Sure kiddo was in the picture, but obliquely. Of course - there were doctor's appointments, pains and aches and all the getting ready, but it was still Mommy and Daddy-to-be. A couple.

The focus was on us. Like a two-way radio. Back and forth. Each the center of the other's world. As it should be right?
Of course.
But ever since we went to the hospital, it's about kiddo. The little one. Mamma's pain and suffering and baby's health and vitality.

Then, before you know it, all the drama is over...and now it's time to settle back into life. BUT - it's not the same.
Before, we were both involved in the pregnancy. Now - Daddy feels like a third wheel. Extraneous. Even useless.

You see, even for the most modern of husbands the fact is men just don't have a working set of tits. And men are just not psychologically equipped ---without special training--- to deal with feeling useless and powerless.

It's like this. Kiddo cries. OK... He needs something. Daddy tries. He really does. But he's not experienced at holding baby. Baby senses this. Then there's no consoling. Baby wants tit. And it's gotta be the right tit.

Of course, Mama isn't that experienced either. But she's learning fast. With training at the hospital, and from grandma, she's catching on fast. And somehow seems equipped for this in a way men never can be.

The tit trumps all Daddy's best efforts.

And let's not forget Grandma. She's been through this many times. It's like riding a bicycle for her. She jumps right back on -- even though it's been 20- 30 years -- just like it was yesterday. She has the right moves, the rhythm. And she can read the signs. She knows what baby wants and needs. Almost instinctively.

Sometimes, when even Momma is struggling, Grandma steps in and before you know it the all world is calm and well again.

This is all well and good. And Daddy is very very thankful, but more and more Daddy begins to feel useless and powerless.

Of course, he's indescribably glad someone is there who knows how to run this baby-happy-and-healthy machine. Like the lone engineer that knows how to fix the elusive problem in the new fangled super-computer.

But there is one other small piece in this puzzle:

Now the couple is no longer a couple. You see - Daddy's energy and attention in the home is ---as always--- focused on Momma and baby,

BUT...

Momma's energy is no longer focused on Daddy. Just from the sheer physical demands of baby, ALL Momma's energy, focus and love seem to have been diverted to baby. Any spare energy is needed to power up for the next feeding, changing, crying, holding and cuddling session --- which never seems to end.

Momma doesn't have a spare moment for herself, let alone for Daddy.

Of course - in his heart and mind Daddy knows Momma loves him, but there's no denying the feeling of being abandoned. Of feeling alone and powerless to do anything useful or solve problems in babyland..

I think this is why over the centuries men have tended to avoid the whole baby mess. Instinctively knowing it was not their domain, realising their use was elsewhere and their energies would be better rewarded in the fields and factories.

That is where they've tended to retreat until the child is big enough to deal with him a little more on his terms...

So what will Daddy do?

Mamma says Daddy will find his place in this new matrix, and that he's already being a great Daddy just wanting and trying to help and support Momma and baby.

Why Europe Will End In Ignonimous Failure And The Deusche Mark Will Return

2011-01-13T23:47:00.000-08:00

Where do I start?
Europe is such a mess? Where do you begin trying to unravel it?

Many countries, especially many Americans laughed in derision as the Europeans espoused their lofty plans to create a pan-european society to rival America. Even many IN Europe didn't believe it.

I'm glad America has a little competition. That keeps everybody healthier and more fit. But - Europe will end in shame and defeat, returning to their various local currencies. Here's why...

But first - let's take a little walk down memory lane...

It all started with the Treaty of Rome and the creation of the European Economic Community, EEC. Then,
little by little through various baby-steps like the European Exchange Rate Mechanism, Europe embarked on its grand journey. Still the neysayers sneered. Even many in Europe continued to doubt.

Fast-forward to 1999. The grand new currency was created and christened - EURO. YAhooooo. Yippee...? Nope. Actually the people of the world and the markets in particular fairly yawned. The Euro quickly went from 1.17US to 80 US cents. An embarrassing start to say the least.

Then in 2002, when the paper was actually issued the currency finally began to get some respect. In fact, due to America's own self-inflicted problems, the Euro embarked on a nearly 10 year long rise. First back over parity. Then to its starting price - 1.17 and it didn't look back until the 1.60s.

You could almost hear them shouting: "Who's the man now, America? There's a new kid on the block." But they just didn't realise what a flash-in-the-pan they would be. How this plan would end like every other attempt to unite Europe since the fall of Rome.

And that is the root of the problem. Europe's troubled past... And more to the point, how that hampers and distorts their ability to perceive and deal with present realities that dooms them.

What we're seeing now is only the beginning of troubles.

Like Oil and Water...

1. You can't mix oil and water. You can't put the A-student with the D-student and hope the D student will improve. Experience has shown us again and again - The superior student will only be weakened by the poor student.

Think about it. In the Euro, they have pretended they could blend Spaniards with Dutch? Italians with Germans? Greeks with Danes? Are you kidding me!?

The North of Europe and the South are like Day and Night.
The Northerners know how to work, but not how to live.
The Southerners know how to live, but not how to work.

So - you've always had a divided continent. At door number 1, you have the stolid, boring, bland BUT hard, hard working northern countries. They are frugal. Savers. Careful. Planners and Builders. And they have world-class economies to show for it.

At door number 2, you have the Southerners. They are too busy enjoying life, Eating, Drinking, Feeling, Creating, Snoozing to be too bothered with ever doing anything too hard or taxing. Work --- Oh they do it when they have to. Then stop.

And as a result their lifestyle has been, and still is the envy of the world. They export their food and luxuries to the ends of the earth.

Their mentality has often been described as 'Manana', or Tomorrow. The put everything off - except FUN.

Work hard? Save money? Why should we?

'Live today, for tomorrow we die.'

These two will not blend without hard, severe, dirty, political union - Ever.

Then there is the reality conundrum...

2. The Europeans want to become a great power again, but without paying the price. Without getting their hands dirty. Without having to sully themselves with all the ugliness and nastiness that goes along with gaining and maintaining power.

Being one of the big boys is not for nice guys. And frankly, the Euros are just too nice.

They don't want to have to give up their sovereignty. They don't want to have a large, expensive military. They don't want wars.

And I understand. After the devastation in two world wars, they are understandably loathe to go to war. The problem is - if you're unwilling to fight, others WILL take advantage of you. It's called Human Nature.

No changin that.

So - they've tried to just have the currency. Have their proverbial cake and eat it too. Have the benefits that a common currency will bestow while still remaining independent.

Well, the charade has gone on for about 10 years and they are just now discovering what the Americans knew all along. Without political union, and without a military that has real teeth, and a general in command willing to bite, currency union is a joke that will never work long term.

A quick look at others who've contemplated world power will serve to illustrate why the Euros lack of grasp on reality and why the will never succeed.

Others Contestants in The Great Power Game

The Japanese had a chance to take the reigns of power - at least as a serious contender for title of Master of Asia. They declined.
Like a man or woman nominated for high office who refuses to run.

They were very clear. 'We don't want to make the sacrifices to become a world power. No. We like our little island. We are stuck in our ways. We don't want to have too much to do with foreigners. We like things the way they are. Thank you very much.'

They didn't have the stomach or balls for the dirty business. And that's OK.

China, on the other hand, IS hell-bent on becoming a great power. And they ARE willing to pay the price.
Their people have their nose to the grind-stones. Working hard hard hard. And saving upwards of 40% of their pay.

They are pursuing peace with all the countries surrounding them. Not out of any love for peace or any altruistic urge. No. It is about settling any ongoing disputes so they can focus ALL their energies on building their empire. They know they're not strong enough YET.

They are using their growing economic clout to build and bully their way to sustainable sources of energy to power their ever growing machine. They're on a military build-up of massive proportions. They have an active and ambitious space program.

They will succeed. They are willing to pay the price and do whatever it takes. No matter how hard or dirty. Or how long it takes.

In fact, they are very happy if America and Europe spend themselves into bankruptcy. 'Can we help you go broke faster sir...' Because they're waiting, building, biding their time. Waiting for the moment when they can start their world empire by taking over the shipping lanes of Asia.

That's the difference.

That's the hard truth the Chinese get. Americans too.

On the other hand, the Euros think they can create another model. A more humane, more noble model. Hence their International Criminal Court among other projects. They think they can find a way to become a great power without the dirty, nasty hard, long slog. But -

BECAUSE THEY DENY HUMAN NATURE the Euros will fail and once again become a cold, lonely forgotten corner of the world --- that once was great. But failed because they lost sight of reality.

The Japanese : From One Idiot to Another

2011-01-11T07:48:00.000-08:00

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703779704576074661995527474.html

Don't get me wrong. I ADMIRE the Japanese for MANY reasons. I lived there. And I have a deep affinity for the people and culture.

BUT as Clint Eastwood in the final scene of the movie Magnum Force, says: "A man's got to know his limitations" before walking away.

Well, the Japanese Finance Minister Yoshihiko Noda should have done the same. He should have kept his mouth shut and walked away.

Instead - now they are committed to buying a bunch of Triple-A rated Junk securities from Europe.

I mean, how much is the rating worth when we know most of Europe is bankrupt? Really!?

And that's not even mentioning the exchange loss they are likely to see.
Because if my prediction is even anywhere close to the mark (See Predictions for 2011.), and the Euro is fetching something near 1 dollar at the end of the year...

The Japanese will take at least a 25% haircut... Great Job Guys!

It's this lack of grand, strategic ability and the lack of balls to stand on the world stage is the reason the Japanese never became a world power.

China on the other hand has the balls, the brains, the brawn and the sheer will and do-anything mentality.
They are rapidly pushing their way to the front of the world power pack....

Not so the Japanese. They should stick to making cars and electronics... Stuff they're good at.

Do You Have These Common Misunderstandings of Forgiveness, Honesty and Judgement?

2011-01-04T22:40:00.000-08:00

Today, I'm going to take a little detour into an area i usually don't talk about. Philosophy which borders on religion.
I do this for one reason. I believe there is a lot of misunderstanding about certain terms that leads to a lot of Madness. Here's how:

In the West - especially in the US, with its Judeo-Christian cultural foundation - there is often a skewed understanding of Honesty, Forgiveness and Judgement. Ideas which are very counterproductive, even destructive.

Let's start with Honesty since it's the easiest one to deal with.
Everyone knows that every major religion on earth has prohibitions against dishonesty. It is universal. Of course the most famous being the 10 Commandments in the Jewish Torah (the Old Testament for Christians).

Then of course, in America, Honesty has been enshrined in law and made famous by the court-room dramas where the witness takes the oath to: "Tell the truth, the whole truth and nothing but the truth..."

And it is not just the classics. There have been a number of blockbuster movies in the last 10 years whose subject has been honesty. I can think of a couple of comedies in particular. And in each case, the MORAL of the story is that we should bear-it-all. Tell all. Keep nothing inside. Have Naked souls.

Nothing could be further from the truth.
First of all, Honesty is not an absolute. And Honesty DOES not mean sharing all.
Not an absolute?
Yep.
This is a classic example, but it illustrates well the point. Imagine you are living in a country that is Not free. (Or if you are, this will instantly ring a bell as you read...) Also, let's imagine you belong to a minority group which is being persecuted.

And - please - I don't want to hear anyone tell me this is an unreasonable example. There are too many such groups in different places --now and historically-- to count.
You really don't have look far to find racial, ethnic, religious and political persecution -- even genocide.

But just to keep our example straightforward, imagine you are a member of that persecuted group. Imagine also that the ruling group has decided your group needs to be exterminated and that now they are conducting house-to-house searches.

Further, imagine, that due to some genetic anomaly, you don't look like the persecuted group. A soldier knocks at the door and asks if there are any your people in the house or who live there?

What do you say?
Do you tell all? Spill your guts? Tell the truth, the whole truth and nothing but the truth, so help you God, knowing it will mean the certain death and dismemberment of you and your extended family?

Of course not. And if you are religious will that lie send you to dark and firey place?

In most ethical systems, there is something known as a Hierarchy of Values. That is a fancy way of saying some values trump others. Or to put it another way, whenever two values come into conflict, you can AND MUST break the one lower on the totem pole and keep the one higher up.

In the case above, you are not telling a lie for personal gain, convenience or fraud. You are not trying to get something that is not yours or keep something you've stolen. No.

You're trying to preserve life. And that value stands at the very top of the heap.
The exhortation to tell the truth is to keep us from gaining unfair advantage. The requirement is null and void when someone is trying to take your life or property.

Consider this very common practice: You leave home. But you leave some of the lights on or ask a neighbor to take your mail inside for you. You may even invest in a system that will turn the lights on at a certain hour every day and off in the daytime. WHY?

You want any would be thief to THINK someone is home. In essence, your intent is to deceive him. Are you wrong? Should you announce to the world that no one is home?

Or, if at work there is a certain someone, [you know who i'm talking about] who is just a little too interested, a tad too friendly, just a smidgin too concerned about you, you can be almost assured they are up to no good.

Do you owe it to them to let it all hang out?

OK... Nuff said.

Then there is Forgiveness. A sticky mess of matted honey it is... Again - because of the influence of religion, it is generally accepted that if someone wrongs you, the high-minded, the noble, the right thing to do is to 'Forgive' him or her. Let it go. Wash it away. Don't dwell on it. Accept that person fully, and forget. 'Forgive and Forget.'

Like Honesty, Forgiveness has its cultural roots in a misguided and erroneous interpretation of the term.

It is said, and I believe it is true based on my own research into the 3 desert religions (Judaism, Christianity and Islam), that Christianity and Islam each got part of the equation. But each is unbalanced.

Here's what I mean: Judaism puts great emphasis on the BALANCE of Justice and Mercy. They believe you cannot have One without the other.
That is Justice without mercy is not justice.
(Think of the a system where the criminal regularly escapes because the system is lenient and forgiving...)
And that
There is no Mercy (or Love) without Justice.
I'll let you think of your own examples...

Islam has taken and emphasises Justice at all costs. That is why we hear of Muslim countries sometimes cutting off the hands of a thief. Or someone being stoned in a public square. There are still public hangings in a place in Riyadh affectionately called 'Chop-Chop-Square'.

Christianity on the other hand --- has gone the other way --- emphasising Mercy to the exclusion of Justice.
(Again - just look at certain legal systems...)

Unfortunately, this is the root of the cultural bias and unbalanced idea about Forgiveness...

Because while all of that advice is good and sound, it masks a deeper cultural expectation. Down the rabbit hole we go....

Let's imagine someone wrongs me. Forgive. OK. Done. I'm not expecting anything in return. Not even an apology, certainly not any form of restitution. So - I've forgiven. Or have I?

Because the unwritten, unspoken, but universally understood implication of the infamous "Forgive and Forget" is that now I should PRETEND the incident never happened.
According to the cultural misconception, I should now roll back the clock in my mind and act like nothing ever happened.

OK. Hmmmm.
Let's say I lent someone my car. They get into an accident.
Wanting to be a good citizen and friend (or relative or whatever) I say --- "No sweat. I forgive you. I'll take care of everything."
So far so good - right?

But what do I do when that same person wants to borrow my car again?

This is where this cultural rubber of this lunacy meets the road of reality and light.

So what to do?

If I've forgiven and forgotten, am I now obliged to AGAIN loan my car? Because that is the logical fallacy many people struggle with. And...

What if it's much more dire? What if it could put you or your family's life in danger?

This is where I depart from the teachings or interpretations of some cultures and religions. I say. I can forgive, but
if I loan my car to that person again, I am a fool. If I put myself or my family in that same car with him, I deserve whatever happens and more.

Just like telling the truth doesn't not mean telling all to anybody who asks irrespective of their
motives or intent, I have no obligation to allow someone to repeat the same vile, irresponsible, destructive act again and again. That is madness and irresponsibility to myself and those I love.

Even if I believe the offender has materially changed and matured since that first unfortunate incident, it is still my judgement whether I want to take that risk again.

And if there is NO evidence at all indicating any change on the part of the offender, and IF I choose to loan him the car, again, I am the fool.

And that brings us to thorny ole Judgement. Oh what a nasty, four letter word it has become. 'How dare you judge me'! and its derivitives are so commonly heard, you have to ask yourself what they mean? And do they even make sense?

This one is simple and easy. This is really a cry for open-mindedness. A grand, noble and wonderful thing.

But ---and this is the problem--- like so many good things it has been taken to an extreme which makes it ridiculous. To judge is simply to evaluate. Something we do every hour of every day. It is the act of weighing options, assessing dangers and opportunities, and then making decisions. It is the basis of thinking and it is necessary for survival.

So - for someone to say we shouldn't judge is a little silly. What they should say is - we shouldn't PRE-judge. But all judgement is not bad.
Witness the incident above.
If someone else damages your car, you are now making a judgement based on experience. Or to make this just a bit juicier: (And unfortunately this happens everyday - somewhere...)

What if a family member comes to pick you up in the car, but you realise they've been drinking. Do you get in? Do you tell your kids to get in...??
That is judgement. Sweet and wonderful.

In essence we could say you are POST-judging, basing your decision on sound past experience and present evidence (or lack there of) of any change.... And that is an EXCELLENT and essential thing to do if we are to survive another day to live and love.

So - I encourage anyone out there: Don't be cowered or intimidated by these cultural blind spots and bits of lunacy. Well meaning or not, they are destructive if followed. I hope you will trust and stand up for yourself.

I don't owe anyone my life story, or the insanity of being a fool in order to appear agreeable. You don't either.

Why Men Panic When Their Wife Goes Into Labour?

2011-01-02T01:05:00.000-08:00

Maybe it's not so common now, but we all know the stereotype of the panicking, hyperventilating
husband darting here and there, but who can't find the car keys.

Meanwhile the wife whose ready to go to the hospital and give birth is calm. In fact - she's the one trying to calm him down. Telling him where her bag and the car keys are. Reassuring HIM - everything will be OK.

And of course there is the old joke: A man is standing outside the delivery room handing cigars to his friends in celebration. [Yep. This is an oldie.]

But in his excitement he says: "Here have a baby, my cigar just had a wife".

OK. Admittedly, this may not be totally accurate. Especially today with men seemingly involved more
than ever. From the first pregnancy test to the delivery room.

But --- and this is my theory --- no matter how modern and involved, on some level every man panics.
It's only a question of when and how.

Even though most men don't come from the land of cowboys, maybe few have ever put on the boots and
hat, i believe there is a bit of cowboy built into men's DNA.

Why is this? Here goes with my theory...

Girls think about having babies, play with dolls and participate in household and childcare duties from a young age. (Or at least that's what i remember.) Boys, on the other hand are given trucks and soldiers, guns and sports equipment.

The message?

Boys: Go out and learn and practice competing and conquering.
Girls: Learn and prepare to be mothers.

Only in passing do boys and men notice babies. OK. This might be a little out there, but humour me and see if this theory makes sense.

Boys are nurtured with practice war and competition. They are preparing for and thinking about this their whole lives. Girls are socialised in, preparing for and thinking about things domestic --including babies-- from day one.

While not always true, it is more than we might want to admit. Example? A girl i knew in secondary school already had the curtains picked out she wanted in her home when she later married.

That's right. In her early teens, she was already planning her life after marriage.

So, my theory goes: Men rarely, if ever think about babies. Women spend years thinking about them. SO - when the big day arrives....

Wait. Before that, let's cover one other bit of ground i almost forgot.

So - while the couple are waiting for Junior or Missy to make his or her grand entrance to the world. During that 9 months of waiting and anticipation, the men are not totally there in reality.

Like when a man is reading the paper and his wife is talking. He answers her then later has no recollection of having done so. This is a man's emotional state during pregnancy.

Meanwhile the woman has been preparing emotionally and otherwise for years BEFORE, and then for 9
months AFTER they find out she's expecting. The man is out to lunch the whole time.

And it's not because he's a dunce or doesn't care. But, it's just not real for him. He might see it, but he doesn't feel the changes in his body. Doesn't get sick. Have backaches, swollen feet and constantly have to piss. He can't feel the kid squirming and hiccuping inside him either.

So no matter how involved our modern man is, he's is still on the outside looking in. Literally.
That in conjunction with the fact that showing emotion, crying or thinking about babies is just not something he programed to feel comfortable doing or feel is manly.

So - like automatic-pilot, he puts these out of his mind.

Remember - this is not science. Just a working theory.

So when the big day arrives and his wife announces it's time to go to the hospital --suddenly -- like a tidal wave, it hits him.
3 in 1. All at once.

First there is
1. Overwhelming Pride/Joy: Oh my God. My boy/girl.
My own flesh and blood. I did it. Co-created another human being. Wow.
I'm gonna love and take care of teach and protect you. Give you everything i have. Give you better
than i had.

Then
2. But - Oh my God - am i up to the task?
Am I ready. Can i really do this? Will i be a good father, or just like my old man? Can i handle her
screaming? Changing him? The expense? The responsibility?

Oh, my God. I have to get serious. Find a way to make a better living...

And Finally
3. Oh my God. What if everything goes wrong? What if there are complications? What if my wife or child doesn't make it? What if the kid has some terrible desease?

Help! This is too much.

And as a man i'm not allowed to feel this way or worse yet - show it. I'm in uncharted waters. Totally out of my element.

And that's my totally unscientific theory: That - no matter how modern, how involved he is, how there he seems to be, on some level this whole baby thing is just a distant idea.

UNTIL..
His wife annouces it's time to go to the hospital. "Honey, my water just broke..."
It's all of the above, plus it's like talking about a woman's period. It's ... well .. men try not to think about those kinds of things.

Then --- in one torrential flood that he neither knows how to process or express, reality hits him.
And he doesn't know where to turn, what to say or how to extracate himself from this situation.

So - on some level, i believe, - all men panic.
It's just part of becoming a father.

Predictions For 2011...

2010-12-31T23:49:00.000-08:00

Every year i find myself reading some newspaper or magazine's predictions for the coming year. And every year i sit there shaking my head in disbelief. I just can't believe how naive, bland and tasteless --- not to mention WRONG -- most predictions are. They only see in straight lines.

But that's just not how life, events and history play out. They take twists and turns and unexpected plunges. Totally new players emerge from left field to take center stage... and things we never imagined - HAPPEN.

The Economist, for example, admitted that it got nearly ALL its predictions for 2010 WRONG.
So what do they and many other publications do?

Yep. With a track record of utter failure, they invite us to read their predictions -- Yet AGAIN.

That i just don't get.

So this year, instead of sitting there in June or August and saying to my partner: "I told you such and such would happen", I've decided to go on record. Lay my predictions out and see how accurate I was in 12 months.

So, while some of my predictions will be extrapolations of trends already underway --straight lines-- others will attempt to anticipate the unexpected. As such, there is an inevitable degree of risk in making such predictions. But then that comes with the territory.

And even if they're totally off the mark - they won't be any worse than the others.....

Here goes:

1. Apple WARS: The Empire of Competitors Strike Back
Apple has been in an enviable position for several years with very little real competition. That is about to change. And with some interesting consequences. I predict that the same thing that happened with the personal computer back in the 80s and 90s will happen again. History will repeat itself.

For those of us old enough to remember - Apple single-handedly invented the pc - the original Mac. BUT, then as now - they tried to keep everything locked tight inside the Apple Kingdom. Although their machines were light years ahead of anything else, they were not FLEXIBLE or ADAPTABLE.

Then, as now, Steve Jobs kept iron-fisted control. And of course Apple's products were sold at a premium.
Then came Microsoft. That dorky nerd company with the whiny-sounding boss.
But Billy-boy understood something about human nature and marketing that Jobs in all his technical brilliance was blind too.
People want LOWER prices and more FLEXIBILITY. They don't want somebody telling them their product can only be used in a certain way. Even if it means a less sophisticated, harder to use product.

Billy-boy gave businesses, then the mass markets what they wanted. Not unlike the Video wars between Sony and Matsushita in the 80s. Remember the Betamax from Sony? It was technically better - had a much crisper, better quality picture. BUT
The VHS - which was a vastly inferior product from Mastushita was better. Better because they understood what people would want to USE the video for. To watch movies. Sony's Betamax was only 60 minutes in the beginning. The VHS two hours. Guess which one triumphed?

Matstushita, like Microsoft, made a vastly inferior product, but which answered the needs, what people really wanted. Sony just didn't get what people would use their products for.

Microsoft, similarly got its hands on several disparate programs from other companies and created its first integrated Office product.

Today MANY people are complaining about the Ipad's lack of Flash, locked Iphones and poor reception etc... It is only a matter of time before some one sees the possibilities in Apples products and history repeats.

Expect to see the humbling of Apple begin this year as the competition's products begin hitting the markets. In fact - Samsung already has its own Ipad ready to launch in Korea in March and in summer worldwide...

2. Gold : What Goes UP, Must Come Down, down, down...
Gold has been in a bull market for nearly 10 years. Up 30% just this year -- at over 1400US per ounce. It is so way over-priced, it is in bubble territory. Now would be an excellent time to take profits on any gold one has.

Because I see it falling back initially to the 1150s, then at some point to see it's low for the year in the 700s. And by year-end, it should have recovered back to the 900 range.

3.. Europe: Storm Clouds Continue To Gather and Darken.
We've seen Iceland implode. Then Greece need and get a rescue package. Next Ireland. And now Spain and Portugal are teetering on the brink of default... As a result Europe has begun moving towards the unthinkable: Political Union. Yep - A United States of Europe.

In order to stave off or delay the day of reckoning, the Europeans will push closer together.
Meanwhile, the storm clouds will continue to gather.

The wild card, I suspect, will be two-fold. One Northern and one Southern.
First the Southern. Everyone knows the south of Europe is a great place to take a holiday, but a poor one to try to get anything done. They work when they feel like it.

Or so the stereotype goes.

As such - Italy is the other one to watch that no one seems to be talking about.The list of problems is deep and long. Suffice it to say - it's a secret to no one.

Then there is the question of the Northern surprise - one that could really rock markets and confidence in Europe the world over.

I believe that one of the northern countries - one of the apparent stalwarts - will be found to be WEAKER than expected. Based on its history, France has always been closer in culture and mentality to the colourful and profligate South rather than the bland, goosestepping North. More like Spain or Italy than Germany or Denmark.

And if it happens, that will really cause jitters. There will be talk of the end of the Euro again, and the currency could very well push all the way down to parity.

But the Eurocrats will do anything to maintain the facade of unity and strength because they realise their whole Euro scheme will unravel if they don't. So - in the end - they will do whatever it takes to prop up their precious Euro. Even till their last dime.

4. ECONOMIC TECTONIC SHIFTS
And here's the part no one talking about. It is inevitable. It is coming. It will change the balance of power in the world for good.
What is it?
It is when the world realises that the developed world is not Rich anymore, but POOR. That is has spent all its money on welfare and war. It is when the world wakes up to the fact that the emerging countries, like BRIC [Brazil, Russia, India, China] are awash in cash and getting richer everyday.

And with it --- will be a realignment of power in the world.

It will be very interesting indeed to see the countries of the West stand with their hats out to the peoples they've looked down on for so long....
And I believe this will start with the problems in Europe that are just beginning.
Because in the end --- Not This Year --- but eventually Europe will fall. The Euro will come apart. The union will fail and they will be back to the squabbling, bickering countries they've been since the fall of Rome.

With one big difference. They will no longer be the rich and powerful masters of the earth -- but second or even third rate powers off in a dark corner of the world while the real action plays out elsewhere.

5. Australia: Headed For A Serious Crash---
Australia, the darling Down Under has been flying high of late. Americans are even immigrating.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704118504576034130441492962.html
To me that article is like seeing the CEO of a company on Time Magazine. Time to SELL.
Not to mention the currency is past parity. Housing prices are sky-high. Both in Bubble territory...
China is raising interest rates which is likely to slow their demand for commodities.
Remember the old saying - Updated?: China sneezes, Australia catches a cold.

My advice: SELL, Sell, sell.... In 6 months, you'll be glad you did.

6. The U.S.: Better weather ahead.
The US definitely has its problems. But right now, it is a case of Least Ugly Wins. With the whole world having problems, you don't have to be the fastest or most beautiful to win the race, you just have to be a little less slow or a little less ugly than everyone else.

I believe as the year progresses, more and more people will realise that for all its warts and pimples, the US economy and currency are still the best of all.
I expect to see the the employment picture get better by inches. Interest rates will begin rising before the end of the year and there will likely be a major re-evaluation of the US dollar as it begins systematically rising --on a long term basis-- against every major currency.

That's all for now. I may add to this post if other things occur to me....

Where Have All The Jews Gone!??

2010-12-30T22:43:00.000-08:00

Seriously - Where have all the Jews gone?
The movies Hollywood is pumping out are absolute crap! Bloody rubbish.

Now some (you know the type) might say Hollywood always pumps out sh*t. But come on...
We all know, like the famous Thomas J Watson Sr. of IBM said, if you want to double your rate of success, double your rate of failure. It's a well-known fact.

Those who take the most swings, DO fail And succeed the most. So - Hollywood puts out a lot of duds, and also comes up with some gems and a fair slew of not-too-bad (if predictably formulaic) movies.

So what's my beef? And what's this have to do with the Jews? And besides, aren't i treading on sensitive ground, here?

Just this: Forget all the religious labels, epithets, politics and the whole schebang. I'm only talking about the Jews as a cultural group. A group which shares in a common set of values and a shared history no matter where they might find themselves on this planet. And one I have great personal respect and admiration for.

It is an undisputed fact that many Jews came to America after WWII. For obvious reasons. In fact - Albert Einstein famously commented he would only live in a society where there was tolerance, freedom and where his rights were protected. (I'm paraphrasing.) He even took US citizenship.

It is also a fact that countries around the world compete for brains. There is the famous 'brain-drain' phenomenon which many poor and developing, and even some developed countries experience.

For those unfamiliar with this idea, it is simply that those people with the most brains, courage and talent will naturally move beyond their borders to greener pastures and better opportunities. Those of lesser talents will remain trapped where they are.

And it is this top 1% that can have a huge impact on the progress and prosperity of a country. For example - until recently, many of the best and brightest from Canada migrated to America in search of better opportunities.

Conversely, losing that top 1% in the brain-game can have equally devastating effects...

Now - consider if one country becomes the recipient of not one country's top 1%, but the best and the brightest from a whole continent?

Let's take this one step further. What if were one group that singularly stood out for its accomplishments --- in this case the Jews in Europe --- in every known field of endeavor: Business, finance, the arts, music, science, medicine and on and on and on...

What if - through some historical aberration, such as pogroms and persecution - this group migrated en masse to one destination principally?

Yep. I'm referring to the mass exodus of Jews after WWII from every corner of Europe to America. Wouldn't this sudden influx of the top 1/10 or even 1/100 of of 1% tend to have a magnified impact on the receiving country?

Is it only coincidence that America's great rise to power only really got underway AFTER World War II?

Some cultures have been more successful at adapting to, and maximising their effectiveness in the world. They've been more successful. They are superior. Others lag behind - even today. Of course there are some who say all cultures and civilizations are equal, but that is patently not true.

The measure of any creature -- including humans -- on planet earth, is its ability to obtain the basics ---food, shelter and protection. And then go beyond that --- to expand their domain of influence.

In human societies the mechanism is culture. So - back to the Jews. If -- as a people and a culture -- they can consistently, over centuries, outperform nearly every other culture on earth, then isn't it logical to at least suspect that maybe there is something superior in their culture?

Something which uniquely equips them for success in the world at large?

Some people will tell you it's something mystical. Bah Humbug - I say. It's their education. Plain and simple.
I believe they have a superior education system.
Not this is not a treatise on education. I'm coming back to Hollywood.

It is a well known fact there are many many Jews in Hollywood. Why? Let me just take a little crack at this. After all - my guess is probably as good as the next.

Anyway. If your people had no fixed piece of land to call their own. And if you were persecuted and discriminated against in almost every country, what would you do? Think survival - plain and simple. This is just human nature and our desire to live and breathe another day.

You'd probably ask yourself, what is the one thing that no one can take from me. And the answer to that beautiful question is : What's between my ears. My knowledge, my education, my culture... My ability to work intelligently.

And I believe that somewhere --- deeply embedded in their culture --- you find this almost obsessive drive to excel. Not to pass others, but to ensure their own survival in the face of overwhelming odds.

And as each Jewish boy and girl brought up in the temple will attest, they receive a rigorous and additional education before they even graduate from secondary school. An education which requires them to read and understand the stories and lessons of the Torah. This is a book filled with many many stories.

Stories of love, and war, passion. Stories of the underdog winning against a much more powerful enemy. Stories of deep human suffering. Stories of triumph. Silly stories. Wild adventures.

Just as the ancient upper class Greeks did for their children, Jews are thoroughly bathed in their classics. They are awash in many great stories.

I believe that's why they are such superb story-tellers - and why so many of the great story tellers come from this cultural embryo.

But -------- and here's the rub: In the last year or so, I've noticed that the genius is inexorably slipping away. The brilliant sets are still there. The same A-list actors. But the writing and directing.

OK. Let me spell it out. The spirit. The spark, The talent. The genius is gone. Most of the movies i've seen in the past year have been mere shells of their former glory. It's as if the body is still functioning, but the brain is dead.

Sure there have been two or three notable exceptions --movies that were both imaginative and entertaining -- even thought-provoking. But that's it.

So my question is: Where have all the Jews gone?
Have they stuck their finger in the air and sensed danger on the horizon? Have the top 1/10th of 1% migrated somewhere else?
Are Hollywood's glory days behind it? And is the brain-game turning against America?

If Hollywood is any kind of leading indicator, the answer is clear...

Parade of Ingnorance! Another Business Kills The Golden Goose

2010-12-29T07:15:00.000-08:00

It happens all the time. No one is immune.
But forgetting can be life-threatening - especially to a healthy, vibrant, well-loved business.

Forgetting what?
The lessons we all learned in Nursery school and Kindergarten.

Personally, i've always liked the story of the Golden Goose. A poor peasant gets a golden goose. (Yes - I'm really fast-forwarding through this story to the good part..) Then not satisfied with the one golden egg each day, he decided to kill it thinking the goose had a storehouse of eggs inside. He wanted them ALL at once.

But in his greed, he killed the goose - and there too All his future riches... What a shame.... Tisk tisk..

Yet - it's so easy to forget these simple, basic bits of wisdom and insight into life.

In my town there is a pastry and bake shop that is loved by everyone. That is - until the owner recently decided it was time to kill the goose.

This is actually a franchise - a chain. Which is what makes this story all the more tragic and interesting - not to mention instructive.

Anyway - whoever is in charge (and i suspect there has recently been a fundamental change in leadership. It has the smell of a the second generation taking over.) has recently made some dramatic changes.

While most other chains and businesses in general are heading in the direction of decentralisation, of giving individual divisions or branches more leeway to solve problems and even introduce innovations locally --- these geniuses are centralizing. Pulling all decision making and even all production to the capital city.

If you walk into the shop (as one person did recently) and try to order ---say 20 cakes--- for the next day, any other cake shop would jump at the order thanking the goods of money and prosperity.
BUT
Since everything now has to be made in ---and hence shipped from--- the capital city. That is impossible.

More to the point. There are more and more cases of people getting sick. Why?
Surprise, surprise --- because the cakes must travel a minimum of 12-15 hours to reach our city. And that is AFTER they have made their way to the distribution center. I can only imagine how old the cakes must be by the time they arrive here. And there are plenty of cities FARTHER away from the capital than us.

Their own (new) policies give us a good ballpark figure. If you order a cake on Wednesday - you cannot have it until Saturday at the earlierst! Maybe not till Sunday or later...

Now - remember, this is not just some local spokal bakery. This is a posh, upscale, respected place where people purchase cakes as gifts, for weddings and other special occasions.

Wow!
Knowing that - will i eat one of their cakes?
PERISH THE THOUGHT.

The goose killing doesn't end there.
The new arrogant idiot-geniuses have also decided to stop selling cake by the slice during the holidays.

Can you imagine the that? The lunacy?

When do most such shops do the bulk of their business?
If you answered - during the holidays - you are dead right.

Just to put a little more color in this picture.
Their shops have a very nice, highly refined set of relaxing tables and comfy chairs that regularly attract couples, families and friends to drop in for high quality, delicous bit of decadence.

I don't have access to their books, but the slices must have a significantly higher gross margin than the cakes. The slices must be big sellers. And don't forget - when people sit down, they buy HIGH margin drinks.
A cash-cow. Or in this case - Golden Goose.

I was royally pissed off the other day when i went their with my partner only to be turned away from the slices counter - with a Better-Than-Thou sniff. No apology. No attempt to explain or make any kind of amends.

So - i talked to a good friend who is a local food critic. That's when i found out about cake production in the capital and the food poisoning it has led to.

At that moment i was not longer sorry we hadn't eaten their cake. I was thankful. But incredulous.

Then and there i realised once more, many people go into or maintain a businesses not to make money - but but as an Ego-Trip. To show the world just how big they are.

That's fine with me. I'm just waiting for word to get out. For more and more people to be refused the slices - being looking down on as peasants who are not worthy of being customers. And more people to continue getting sick.

Because - eventually - if they continue with these policies, someone, (maybe me) will wait for their business' death. Then everything they have - their land, buildings, equipment, recipes and even customer lists will be for sale for pennies on the dollar.

Soccer - Just Not Violent Enough...

2010-12-29T06:02:00.000-08:00

I am an avowed -- Not Soccer Fan, Nor Soccer Hater. I simply don't give a damn. In fact - i never thought i'd be writing about soccer without a gun pointed at my head. (And i assure you no gun is near me.)

But since i am living in one of the countries competing in the AFF Cup, Soccer ---Oh excuse me, for the purist out there ---'football' is everywhere and unavoidable. What IS interesting, is the fans. Observing the way the fans act and react to every movement in the game.

It doesn't matter where you are, every time the home country makes a goal or touchdown --or whatever the hell they call it when they get the ball in the net-- you hear cheers roaring up from almost everywhere. A normally quiet and serene cafe. A road-side eatery. Even at the local mall.

And where there is soccer (oh screw the purists, i'll call it what i bloody well like) there is violence. Ugly riots are a common scene around the globe at big soccer tournaments. Police by the thousands arrayed in anti-riot gear.

And yet - the matches continue. The violence of the fans continues.
Nothing changes.

So - i got curious. Why is it soccer seems to be associated with such systematic and predictable violence from the fans? Why why why?
Why oh why oh why?

Yes. There is the occasional bit of mayhem or even slight breakdown in social order at other sporting events, but not as regularly and destructively as soccer.

Then it occurred to me. It's because it's not violent enough.
What?
Yep! Not violent enough ON THE FIELD. It's too damn genteel and sweet. Too civilized.
Remember - all sports are a proxy for WAR. Good ole blood curdling, pound 'em in to the ground VIOLENCE.

Consider hockey. A lovely sport that leaves no reservations about its true purpose or intent. You go out on the ice to put the puck in the net for sure. But - like rice in Asia or potatoes in Russia - no meal is complete without it.
Hockey without a bit of brain-bashing is just not hockey. Not satisfying.
Or Football. Yea. The real f**king football. The one where guys go out on the field to break bones.
The more the merrier.

Or consider Bullfighting. A delicious release of pent up passion and adrenaline in an almost artistic way...
Lately, the Wussbags have had some success in banning this ancient, and sublime pastime. But that's a subject for another post.

Oh and lest i leave out Boxing. What could be more straight-forward. Two human being duking it out till one of em drops. Simple. Beautiful.

Lastly, let's talk about the granddaddy of them all : The Gladiators.
Have you ever heard about a riot or insurrection during or after a contest between gladiators?
Of course not. Because there is satisfaction. One man is down at the end. Never to rise again....

So I say - if you want to head-off, curtail and even avoid the violence OFF the field, provide the adequate and necessary blood curdling, brain-bashing, bone breaking, spear through the torso kind of violence ON THE FIELD.

Plain and simple. Play a real sport or reform soccer to be a true proxy for war. VIVA LA VIOLENCE!

SingaPOORean!

2010-12-18T22:37:00.000-08:00

Yes. I've intentionally misspelled for dramatic effect. And to make a point. Look on any world survey of relative income by country, and you'll find Singapore near the top. It's even ahead of the US. But are they really rich?

Or - as I believe - are they desperately poor? But too full of their own arrogance and sheep-like mentality to even begin to realise their true poverty.

But let's start at the beginning. I'll be the first to admit Singapoor has come a long way - having so many wonderful and admirable accomplishments under its belt. In the space of 40 years, like the tittle of Lew Kwan Yew's 2nd autobiography, Singapoor has literally gone from 3rd world to 1st.

Remarkable indeed.

But a peek beneath the surface will reveal that the attitude of superiority many Singapooreans tote about is not supported by the reality of how they live.

Let's get specific.
I'm going to compare Singapoor to Hong Kong and Japan.
Hong Kong because it is their rival in so many ways. Among other areas of competition, they both aspire to be Asia's financial and tourist destination.
And both are predominantly Chinese.
Then there is Japan. The first in Asia to reach par with the West. The leader and model for many others.

Singapoor loses to both in nearly every respect.
Infrastructure. Japan is better. Service. Japan light years ahead in its superiority.
Examples:
Take a taxi or public transit. They are not the same.
In Japan, the taxi's are pristine with self-opening and closing passenger doors. No. They are not cheap, but compared to London or New York - not excessive.

Transport to and from the airport to the centre of town. Many fast, clean, efficient options to choose from in Japan.

Take a train or bus and the experience is the same. In Japan, you have a ticket machine at even most bus stop. And the bus provides change - no questions, hassles or stares.

And if you're a first timer? Just ask how much the fare is to your destination and pay when you leave.
No fumbling or impatience to be endured.

Hotels. Yes. Tiny. But of the highest quality and with every essential device and service. And all with a smile.

And what about how the locals live? Like Hong Kong and Singapoor, the high rise apartment is the norm. In Japan, though, everything works. And service is impeccable. As with the hotels, homes are small - even tiny - by Western standards, but one soon realises they can be very comfortable.

And don't forget convenience. Japan is, handsdown, the most convenient country I've ever lived in. If you live near a major train station in a town of any size, you'll usually find every essential service - supermarkets, departments stores, banks, restaurants etc - within easy walking or bicycling distance.

And even if you don't live near such a station, transport to this central marketplace is usually easy.

How about Hong Kong?
Well - Hong Kong has different attributes and advantages.
Like New York, the people are more brusque, short and impolite. Things don't always work as they should. But the opportunities to do or become almost anything your talent and ambition will take you is the limit.

While there has been some deterioration --some will say-- since Hong Kong was taken over the by the Chinese, it remains the closest thing on planet earth to a truly laissez faire capitalism. The tax rate is only 15%. Flat tax.

Now - back to Singapoor and why I have chosen to call it poor.
Simply this. While they have sheepishly surrendered their freedom, their vaunted infrastructure is not as good as Japan. Their service and attitude are abysmal.
Call a taxi? There's a charge of 2.5 Sing $ extra. Take one from the airport and you'll pay up to 5 Sing dollars just for having taken it from the airport.
Public transport?
You'd better have the correct change if you're boarding a bus. The metro? To be fair is actually quite good. But somehow doesn't seem to be as conveniently located as in Japan.

So why do I say Singapooreans are POOR?
Because : 1. They have diminished freedom and 2. Stunted Opportunity. And 3. A lifestyle inferior to Indonesia.
Japan and Hong Kong are both freer.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democracy_Index

Singapoor comes in at number 82!

While Hong Kong provides unparalleled freedom of opportunity, high taxes, regulations and a repressive political system mean the barriers to freedom and wealth are much higher than in Singapoor.

And even the casual visitor will observe that things in Japan work. Singapoor still suffers from the third world manners and mentality of its people. Lee Kwan Yew even admits as much in his autobiography.

But enough of the survey and statistics. Let's get down and dirty. How does a middle class Singapoorean's quality of life and lifestyle compare with its still third world neighbor Indonesia?

In Indonesia, the majority of the middle class are entrepreneurs who live in a wide house with at least one maid. Often they have two or more maids and a driver. When they go out, they dine at world-class hotels like J.W. Marriot and Sheraton.

They shop in fine, upscale markets purchasing the best imported produce and goods. Their desserts are from exquisite European bakeries. And many of the mundane tasks are taken care of by their servants. No hassles or waiting in lines.

When they even go to the bank, they are given gold-star treatment. In short - they enjoy a very high quality, life supported by many top quality service providers.

Their fellow middle class Singapoorean labors long hours in a dreary office working for someone else - handing over vast sums of their earnings to the government.

They handle all the mundane tasks without help. Drive a small cramped car. They wait in long lines as a matter of fact.

And when it's time to take a meal out, the middle class Singapoorean often finds him or herself at a hawker centre - one of Singapoor's famous outdoor cafeteria-style eateries known for their bustling fast food at plastic tables at crowded street-side corners.

It is not Singapoor's accomplishments I deny. It is the fact that they have traded their freedom for what? And where is the opportunity or even the lifestyle other countries take for granted.

In the end what do they have, but an inflated view of themselves and their achievements that make them sad, laughable and SingaPOORean.

SingaPOOR: The UN Welcome Mat

2010-12-18T00:42:00.000-08:00

I used to admire and like Singapoor - having passed through its gates many times. Now - I find it revolting.
Has Sinapoor changed or have I? I don't know - but what is clear is that my opinion of it has changed. And I'm not the only one.

But first, what is the origin of my revulsion?

Simple. I hate arrogance unbacked by substance in anyone or anything. If you're going to be proud - even arrogant - you'd better have the goods to back it up.

'Put up or Shut up' I think the saying goes.
Singapoor used to be a place i admired for its order, cleanliness, safety and welcoming spirit. Not to mention the great eating and shopping. I don't feel that anymore. Now - on arrival - it feels like I've just landed in the Nazi-Republic.

Two incidents i personally endured [and will share later in this posting] and one my seatmate on the outgoing flight shared, should illustrate this point well.

Then there is the question of Value for Money. Singapoor used to be a great place to stop over - have a good meal at a fair price and continue on. Or if one had more time - exit the airport into the country and enjoy more of the same. Good food. Good accommodation. Good shopping and entertainment. All first-world quality at most reasonable prices.

No. I didn't say things were cheap. But by the price/quality standards you'd find in Western Europe, North America or Japan, things were reasonable. It was a haven. An oasis of civility and safety with a charm and welcome to match.

The operative word here is WAS.

One illustration:

It's a real small thing, but on this most recent trip I did as I've always done on arrival in Singapoor. I purchased a local SIM card for my mobile.

Though it had only been 6 months since my last visit - the price had tripled. Last time, there were phone cards available for Sing$10. Now the cheapest were 28 and 33, depending on your choice of carrier.

But that wasn't the worst of it.
I bought that card, spent the money as I always do - why? To avoid roaming charges on my home-country card. Quite expensive. Not to mention - it's just so much easier and more convenient to have a local number.

I soon made the horrible discovery that my card was being debited every time i took a call - Every time I took a call my mate had already paid for.

Keep in mind - I had a local Sinapoor card. Within the city all calls should be a local call charge. That's the way it had been just a few months earlier. And any calls from outside, should be free to receive. After all - isn't that what it means to have a local card?

Anyway - that's how it's always been in the past.

But now - every time my partner called and PAID THE CHARGES at the initiating end, MY Local Singapoor Card was debited.

This had never happened before.
And the charges were quite substantial. For just under 5 minutes - I had to pay nearly as many Sing dollars. Meanwhile, my partner had ALSO paid for the call on the other end.
UNBELIEVABLE.

I would really be interested to hear the lame excuse some drone from Singapoor Telecom might attempt for this.

And it's not just that. Hotel rates have gone through the roof.

Some might say I shouldn't compare countries, but since Bahrain and Singapore share some similarities in size and location next to much bigger countries. Since both are transit points and centers of entertainment, I think the comparison is more than fair.

Recently in Bahrain, my partner and I stayed in an apartment-like hotel. It was really a suite with a full kitchen. And a beautiful rooftop pool and sauna to boot. High-speed, unfiltered in-room internet was free. Truly - it was like a little home away from home. For that we paid 90US. And the service was responsive and friendly.

No special discounts. Standard price from booking.com.

In Singapore - for 90US - you'll be lucky to find something with a simple bed and bathroom. Forget any thought of a living room suite or kitchen or finding a even hotel which is not not in the Red light district or a hotel frequented by tour groups from China.

There will be no balcony or pool. The walls will be paper thin. And there will be no extra services. Even asking for help with your bags will earn you incredulous stares of indignance. In Singapoor, their look and attitude say it all: 'I'm Sinapoorean. I don't carry bags. I'm too good for that.'

And any other services come at substantial prices for sub-par performance. [On this most recent trip, I paid 5 Sing dollars for 2 hours internet access from the hotel, but because of filtering in their system I could not access a site I needed for work. In the end, I found myself lugging my laptop to a local internet cafe in desperation.]

But for most visitors - every trip to Singapoor begins or ends with Changi. So - let's elaborate on the wonderful Singapoor Un Welcome.

On my most recent trip to the Nazi Republic, we were treated to a shocking reception. Instead of a warm welcome as we exited our flight, it was military hardware and hard stares.

As everyone was grabbing their bags, eagerly exiting the plane in anticipation of the delights awaiting them at the gates of Singapoor - we were instead met by at least 15 armed security guards directing us to a check point. Not pistols i mind you. The had serious, military rifles. And hardened suspicious looks to match.

The area where our elephant trunk emerged had been cordoned off in an isolated, empty stretch at the very end of the terminal. The rest of the gates were empty. No one but us. And the angry-looking guards.

"What's up" was my first question to myself. We're ARRIVING. This is not a departure hall. We already went through two separate checks BEFORE we boarded this plane.

When i asked one of the armed menaces, he countered with some weak excuse about a random check.

Haaa!
Ramdom my ass!

The guard might have been stupid enough to believe that. I was not.

It was obvious to anyone with a brain, that this flight had been specially routed o this unused or evacuated bit of terminal at the very end. And the artillery?

How would YOU feel?

You're expecting to see lots of people and activity. Hustling and bustling by. Carrying or pushing carts of Carry-on. Dashing to the toilets. Flights departing. And people like yourself emerging out of the elephant trunk - getting their bearings - and moving on toward the transit area or baggage claim.

The last thing you expect is ghost town-like emptiness, silence and the excessive number of guards in goosestep with such an array of military hardware on display.

At this point, you realise this was planned with a specific intent. That of instantly inducing fear in order to produce sheep-like compliance. The element of surprise was in their favour. Planned. Not random.

Humiliation endured - I was on my way. But the bitter taste remained.

But really, this shouldn't have been such a big surprise. Just less than 6 months before we had been passing through Singapoor on our way from the Middle East back to Asia.

Remembering what a shopping paradise Changi is - I had done some research ahead of time and even reserved a laptop. We also purchased a designer bag, some booze and a few other knick knacks.

But when we arrived at the gate - even after the humiliating search and seizure, they couldn't stop with insult. They had to add injury.

Suddenly we were in violation of the amount of Carry-On allowed. Hmmmm. Funny they didn't say anything about that at check in. Nor during the search and seizure. Or when they were Oh-So-Glad to take our money at the various shops.

But the most ironic part, was that the offending item - the part that made us irretrievably bad citizens and obnoxious seat companions - was not what we had packed and brought with us. No. The offending contents were the items we'd bought right there in Singapore Airport.

The very thing they encourage people to do. Some might even say, the very raison-d'etre of Changi Airport: Fly BUY Singapoor. [Actually, I've taken a bit of poetic license with the slogan used by Dubai back in the late 80's: Fly Buy Dubai.]

But i guess it's not so much that they said something. It was the way they treated us like criminals for daring to take our purchases home. Shame on us.

To be fair - I don't like it either when fellow travelers have entered the plane with clearly too much in their hands and cause everybody around them hardship as a result. That I understand. But the point is - ours was still within reason.

Let's get specific: I had a laptop and a case of important papers no one was going to separate me from. My partner had a simple, small backpack with emergency clothes in case the airline DID lose our baggage.

Actually this is another reason I feel more and more of us are carrying more and more than ever before into the cabin. Maybe more reliable, secure baggage services might alleviate the need to carry so much into the cabin in the first place...

It certainly would make life easier if we didn't have to schlep all that around the airport - into every shop and restaurant and then onto every security belt.We would love to be able to give the airline our every item and await them safely and securely on the other end. But alas, that is not the reality of flying.

So, according to their own policy we had one bag each as laptops and purses are considered exempt. And one audacious bag of goodies. Shame on us.

After a very heated and unpleasant exchange, we were allowed on the flight. But the damage was done. We vowed right then to find another transit point whenever practical. And that IF indeed there was a need to go to Singapoor or use it as a transit point, we would do our shopping elsewhere and make any stop there as short as possible.

If these 2 incidents seem small - and they are - they are nevertheless indicative of an attitude which we don't remember encountering in the past. In fact, we used to revere Sinapoor because they had found a way to maintain a first world experience without the invasion and humiliation so common in other republics of the West.

But not anymore.

Now - this city that lives and dies on trade and tourism is taking on the attitudes and ways of its more paranoid brothers in other parts of the world.

And, as I mentioned earlier, it's not just me. Other anecdotal evidence is emerging that something is very wrong in Singapoor.

My seatmate on the outgoing flight FROM Singapoor shared the following. Apparently this young university graduate had traveled with her 3 friends all over Europe and Asia this winter. Sinapoor was one of their last stops before returning home to the snow in England.

She showed me her passport and asked me the question of the day: Do you think I look like the picture in my passport?

'Why of course' was my incredulous answer. Mind you - this was a positive outgoing girl. Not the whining, complaining type in my estimation.

Well - apparently some official sitting at one of the immigration counters in the Nazi Republic had put her through the nineth degree because he didn't think she was the person in the passport. An incident she said really shook her. And not a great way to start her Singapoor leg.

Of all the countries she passed thought this winter, many with serious problems of illegal everything to deal with had not found her picture or passport to be a problem. Why only Singapoor? Why only in the Nazi Republic? What has gone wrong in Lee Kwan Yew's perfect Dreamland?

That's a question the discerning reader will have to answer for her or himself. But as for me and my mate, we believe Sinapoor is trying to imitate its more paranoid brothers - not realising it's life blood comes from its visitors.

In the final analysis - Mr. Yew's Dreamland is no longer value for money - nor is it welcoming. But rather has become the overpriced Nazi Republic. They might as well hang a sign at the gates to the city saying : Be prepared to surrender your freedom and your money upon entering here.

That at least would be more accurate and honest.

At any rate, we will be avoiding Singapoor until further notice...

Is Bali Part of Indonesia?

2010-12-03T02:13:00.000-08:00

This was a question put to us by a young tourist from Europe. We won't name the country because we don't want to shame it.

But it does reveal a deeper reality. Because as you may have noticed, many people --myself included-- talk about Bali like it's somehow different from Indonesia. Yet it IS one of the islands of Indonesia. IS ruled over by the government of idiots in Jakarta. DOES use the Indonesian currency etc....

So why does it seem to be treated so differently - as if it's in a category all by itself?

For one: Bali has carved out a reputation and an identity for itself on the world stage. You'll see 'I Love Bali' tee-shirts everywhere on the island and off. But you'll look long, hard and wide for an 'I Love Indonesia' shirt.

I've just never seen one.

To go a step further. There is no quintessential dish Indonesia is famous for. America has hamburgers. England has Fish n Chips. Germany has Schnitzel and Wurst. Japan has Sushi. Korea has Kimchi. Malaysia has Laksa. Even Singapore has its Chili-crab.

And so it is with the wider country. While Bali figured out long ago it would be a hedonists paradise. Indonesia is still fighting amongst themselves - trying on different identities. I think it is largely split between wannabee Saudi Arabs, and Wannabe American businessmen, with a smaller contingent of Wannabee Chinese.

Second. The Balinese don't give a damn! They are easy going to a fault. As long as they can practice their religion, they don't care what anybody else does. They don't even care if they eat. Just let them pray.

And this is key.

While Bali is Hindu. The rest of Indonesia --except for pockets of Christians in Papua and Sulawesil, and embedded Budhism in the Chinese community-- Indonesia is 86.9 Islam. It is oppressive. It is like living in Riyadh or one of the narrow little 'Bible Belt' towns in the deep South of the US.

Of course, Bali isn't the only beautiful place in Indonesia, but it IS one of the only ones that is open and accepting. Consider this. Aceh's beaches are even more pristine and better for surfing than Bali, but it is illegal to wear a bikini. What a shame and a waste.

Going from (Islamic) Java to (Hindu) Bali is a lot like driving from a small town in Georgia to South Beach in Miami. Or like crossing the mountains separating the conservative Central Valley in California to the promiscuous coast. Like driving from Riyadh to Bahrain.

Bahrain is the devil's peninsula next to Saudi Arabia. Saudis go there to do such evil and sinful things as going to the cinema, visiting a bar or buying books banned in their country.

In a second - the whole atmosphere changes. You can smell the freedom. Sense it in your bones as every muscle and fiber of your being begins to relax in the easy openness. As you begin anticipating being able to be who you are and enjoy simple -- yet often -- pleasures which are forbidden back home.

And I think that's why even the local Indonesians are discovering Bali. Paradise in their backyard. And for a bargain price.

So, while Bali is politically part of the areas ruled by Jakarta -- part of Indonesia-- in every other way it is as distinct and different as night is to day. And that makes all the difference.

Living in Bali/Indonesia - The Quick Fix Document

2010-12-01T23:35:00.000-08:00

In follow up to Living in Bali 3, below is a copy of the actual document your Indonesian sponsor (family member or friend) will need to submit to obtain a Sosial Budaya/ Family Visit Visa.

This is the visa that will get you into the country for 60 days and which is renewable --in country-- up to 4 times thereafter for a total of 180 days maximum.

The highlighted parts need to be customized to your situation. Ie your name, your relationship to the sponsor and at which embassy or consulate abroad you're getting your visa processed.

This is an example of an Indonesian wife sponsoring her foreign husband.

XYZ Jalan 39, Jakarta, 99999 INDONESIA

Perihal : Permohonan Visa sosial budaya untuk suami a/n John Smith

Kepada Yang Mulia:
Bapak Duta Besar Republik Indonesia
Up. Bapak Kepala Bidang Imigrasi
di Singapura

Dengan hormat,

Kami yang bertanda tangan di bawah ini :

Nama: Dewi Hartono
Tempat & tgl lahir: Jakarta, 1 Juni 1980
Pekerjaan: Ibu rumah tangga
Kebangsaan: Indonesia
Alamat sekarang : XYZ Jalan 39, Jakarta, 99999 INDONESIA

Dengan ini kami mengajukan permohonan kepada Yang Mulia Bapak Duta RI agar berkenan memberikan Visa sosial budaya yang berlaku 60 hari kepada suami sah saya yang datanya tersebut di bawah ini:

Nama: John Smith
Kelamin: Laki-laki
Tempat/tgl lahir: Sydney, Australia
Pekerjaan: Penulis
Kebangsaan :Australia

Perlu kami sampaikan bahwa permohonan ini kami ajukan karena suami saya yang tersebut di atas akan mengunjungi saya sebagai istrinya, dan akan tinggal di Jakarta-Indonesia, serta keberadaan suami di Indonesia akan tanggung jawab saya.

Demikianlah permohonan ini kami buat dan atas perhatian. Bantuan serta kebijaksanaan Bapak, kami mengucapkan terima kasih.

Hormat kami,

Dewi Hartono

Dream Job or Nightmare in Saudi Arabia

2010-11-25T09:26:00.000-08:00

Things are a changin. Yep. Saudi is opening up. Nope. I don't mean they've decided to go liberal and close down their mosques, allow drag-racing or start opening up bars and brothels. No. No. No. It is STILL Saudi. There are still so many things you can't do. So many taboos and limitations -- especially if you're a woman. And Yet -

It is more popular than ever. Why?

Because for one it is safer than ever. That's right. It was just a few short years ago - as early as 2003 - that many of the westerners there kept (illegal;) firearms on their person and in there homes on the guarded compounds. Remember the Compound bombings? And the movie made about them : The Kingdom.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Riyadh_compound_bombings

For those not familiar with Saudi Arabia, it was a tacit agreement at high levels struck years ago between the country with the largest military in the world and the one with the largest oil reserves on the planet. Protection for Oil. It was also at this time, that the Saudi's began the long process of digging out of the dark ages.

They welcomed Western expertise, know-how and efficiency. What they wanted to shield themselves and their population from was the evil influence of the unwashed KAFIR. The Arabic for Infidel or one who doesn't believe in Islam.

The solution? Guarded Compounds. Very much like prisons on the outside. Like a piece of suburbia on the inside. This kept the Kafir tucked away where they wouldn't poison the local population with their alcohol, lewdness and lascivious lifestyle of Sodom.

It suited the Westerns too since not only could their safety be secured, but their was a little oasis of Western freedom and modern facilities which simply didn't exist on the outside.

But two major changes have taken place.

1. The security situation has vastly improved and,
2. The Saudis are on a major building binge.

The security situation has improved ---due to the efforts and policies put in place by His Majesty, The Guardian of the Two Holy Mosques (I'm always amused by the official title the King goes by....) --- to such an extent that many companies, like Vinnell Corp., have eliminated special allowances for danger - also known as Danger Pay - altogether.

And if you think there are a lot of cranes in China - per capita, Saudi may have the most on planet earth.

They are literally building WHOLE cities out of nothing. Where nothing but sand existed just a few short years ago, today you'll see cities rising up --literally-- out of the sand. And immense, gargantuan university campuses are under construction as well.

The building boom is on a scale almost unimaginable.

Those two things and hard times back in the West have begun bringing many many new workers to Saudi of late.

And as a result of that famous Law of Supply and Demand, more and more companies are beginning to look at the bottom line with a more squinted eye. And cutting back.

As there are more people than ever who are discovering the delicious tax free earnings available in the desert kingdom, companies don't have to offer as much as in times past. Fewer and fewer are willing to pay the generous expat packages of yesteryear. Case in point, school fees for the children. Gone. Compound housing? Companies are cutting back, reducing allowances and in many cases outright saying no - especially to those at the lower ends of the food chain.

So it's a mixed bag. It is easier to live in than ever before. And for people in construction and telecommunications there has never been more opportunity. But for those in the less glamourous fields or where demand is falling off, pay and conditions are deteriorating rapidly.

ESL is one great example. It is really opening up - at the low end. Those great jobs you heard about in the past. They are disappearing faster than a footprint in the sand during a sandstorm.

The Good News: There are more and more opportunities for people who have little experience and few credentials in the field. Most companies across the board are still asking for 5-10 years experience and superior credentials - in all fields.

But in ESL, there are more and more places now willing to take someone with only a year or two experience and a basic certificate. The salaries range between 2,000 and 3,500 US.

But consider the freedoms you'll have to give up for that: There is no alcohol in the desert kingdom. Except, of course, home brewed. If you're inside a compound - not a big deal as long as you're discrete. Some compounds even have bars. But outside, you always run the risk of a visiting MUTAWA. They are an unofficial force of religious police, but who have an extremely wide latitude of power.

There is no trial. No questions. If accused, you are guilty and there will be repercussions.

Then their other ideas about morality can be a serious inhibition to any sort of fun. For example -

You can be put in jail or unceremoniously shipped out of the country for holding hands or kissing in public. Even hugging can get you in trouble. And technically, you aren't even allowed to be with a member of the opposite sex who is not a family member.

You can kiss dating goodbye. Yes. There are parties at the embassies. But that is not quite the same thing as going to a club or relaxing with friends over a beer at the local pub.

And there is no culture. No cinemas. No live theatre or music. No art. No libraries. And precious few bookstores. In fact, other than the Koran, many Saudis don't even read.

And yet - this is also one of the best things about living and working in Saudi. There's very little to spend money on.

That makes saving money easy -- if you're motivated and can entertain yourself. Otherwise - it can be a lonely place.

The economics: I found prices in Saudi to be on par with a the US in most respects. The one big exception is Petrol. About 1 Riyal (US 27 cents) per litre.

And the second best thing about life in Saudi - is that most companies still pay for your initial and annual return flights, housing, medical and all visa expenses. And of course - all salaries are tax free. The only exception is if you have the misfortune to be an American. The US is the only country on the planet which collects tax based on citizenship instead of residence.

All in all - Saudi is a great place to work and save money. It may be a bit short (to put it mildly) on culture, entertainment and lifestyle. As a result - most people head home (where ever that is) when their bucket of money is full.

The Always Amazing Government

2010-11-18T04:53:00.000-08:00

Governments everywhere daily demonstrate their stupidity. So why should I be surprised and why is this worth writing about? Maybe it is. Maybe it's not.

What I find so amazing is how they never learn from their mistakes -- repeating them over and over and over again. Each time they are white-faced with surprise.

The story today in all honesty could be from almost anywhere. So don't let the foreign names throw you. The Indonesian government deems it necessary to subsidize the price of petrol among other things. Fine. As they wish.

Today the news channels in Indonesia are all abuzz. Apparently the state owned petroleum company (and only authorized, legal distributor) of petrol has recently introduced a NON-subsidized line of petrol as well.

The way the system works - anybody - whether they live on $2 or $200/day can pull up to the pumps and fill up at the lower price. About 50 cents US/liter.

But picture this. You now have the choice when you roll up to the pumps to choose between the subsidized and the non-subsidized.

Stop just a minute and ask yourself (because obviously the government didn't ever think this through): Who is her right mind is going to choose to pay the higher price if there is absolutely NO DIFFERENCE between the two? And there is no other incentive or element of coercion.

So to combat the fact that everybody still opts for the cheaper - subsidized petrol - what does the state owned Pertamina do? They put each station on a fixed quota of the cheap stuff. But remember - it's still first-come, first-served.

There are no individual ration cards or any mechanism established to control who is given access to the subsidized goods. So...

You guessed it. Stations are running out of the cheap petrol.

Any sane, thinking, intelligent - even self-serving government that just wanted to save itself a lot of heartache would have thought things through a little better and either announced it well in advance and just gone cold-turkey.

'Sorry folks - No more subsidies. We just can't afford it anymore....' or

They would have provided some other mechanism to deal with the dual pricing confusion... or provided another way to subsidize the people they felt needed help.

Or.... There are a hundred other intelligent ways to deal with this.

This reminds me of the debacle several months ago when the government of idiots decided it wanted everybody to convert from using kerosene to LPG for cooking. In itself a wonderful idea.

But it was the way they went about it. In a word, they had no education mechanism set up to teach people how to use the LPG tanks. The price of the LPG was higher than the equivalent amount of kerosene.

And guess what?

Yep. It gets worse. The government in all its infinite wisdom decided it would give away small 3kg tanks of LPG to the poor.
Many, many of these literally exploded. Killing many people and leveling the only home many poor people had.

'Government' and 'intelligence' are two words which seldom seem to belong together...

Dollar Days

2010-11-16T09:47:00.000-08:00

For anybody who follows the currency markets, now is a great time to be holding US dollars.

The signals emerged a couple of days ago. Now we're seeing the dollar making a big comeback against all major currencies. I expect this trend to hold for a few weeks if not months.

Thinking of Living in Bali? 3

2010-11-15T22:01:00.000-08:00

So you've come to Indonesia, fallen in love with it and decided you want to live here long term?

Or you're a foreign man married to an Indonesian woman, but have just discovered that affords you zero rights.

Bottom line, you are not welcome in her country... What to do?

There are several ways to approach this. And strangely enough - none of them require you to be married to an Indonesian.

They are open to anyone.

That is to say - any marriage (by a foreign man to an Indonesian woman) is absolutely meaningless to the Indonesian government.

One is temporary and 3 are more permanent.

The first is what is known as a Sosial Budaya/Family Visit Visa.

This is a visa designed to allow you to soak up the culture or visit family for up to 6 months.

All you need is an Indonesian to sponsor you. Someone willing to submit some papers guaranteeing the government they will be responsible for you.

You don't have to be related. Travel agents are often willing to do this.

And getting this visa at most Indonesian embassies abroad is not too difficult. Note: You must get this while OUTSIDE Indonesia.

You'll need to present a valid return ticket to Indonesia and pay a small fee - about US$40.

And if you are passing through Singapore, there are visa agents who will do all the hard work for you - usually the same day. The fee is about S$200.

They initially grant it for 60 days. Then you'll need to renew it --in country-- every 30 days thereafter.

Simple enough in theory. The trouble is - someone has to go once to drop off the application.

Remember the lines at immigration offices in most countries? This is no different.

If you, your friend or family member do it yourself,
there will be at least one more trip to pick it up. And a fee of Rp250,000 (US$27)

Or again - there are agents who will take care of this for you. Expect fees to start around Rp1,000,000
(US$112)

Be forewarned though - on the last 2 renewals (month 5 & 6), the immigration officials become less and less kind.

They begin requiring supplementary documentation which must be signed off on at the Law Courts. Another government office.

It is not unheard of to be asked for a bribe at this juncture.

A Note about corruption. Indonesia is on the mend. In the last 5 years, it has gone from nearly the bottom of the list, to the middle now.

But it is still unimaginably corrupt by Westerner standards.
Corruption Index:
http://www.worldaudit.org/corruption.htm

If you have an agent doing this for you, your fee is going higher.

If you or someone you know is doing it yourselves, it may take a half day 5 - 6 days during a 10 day period.

So it should be obvious that this is just a temporary fix while you sort out a more long term solution.

In the next installment: The actual letter (in Indonesian) your sponsor will need to sign. Then the Long Term Solutions. Pros and Cons, Ins and Outs, and the costs.

Thinking of Living in Bali? 2

2010-11-14T23:36:00.000-08:00

Indonesia is different from most countries when it comes to its visa and immigration policies.

It is VERY easy to get in as a tourist. Just show up at the airport, pay US$25 and voila - you're good to go for a month.

They've even recently changed the law. It's now possible to extend --in country--
for another month. Two months in all with only minimal hassle.

BUT - the whole story changes IF you want to live here. I have a theory about why I'll share toward the end of this post.

Anyway - just to give a flavor of the medieval mentality you'll encounter - let's say you marry an Indonesian.

In almost any other country, as soon as the authorities are satisfied the marriage is legit, the foreign spouse is given a residency permit which usually allows one the right to live, work and engage in any legal business.

Not so in Indonesia.

Here if you are a foreign woman, married to an Indonesian man - all is well. He can sponsor you and you're legal-spegal.

But, if the marriage is between a foreign man an and Indonesia woman --- well --- let's just say they place a different value on women to men.

A woman can NOT sponsor a foreign husband. As unbelievable as it sounds, that's the law.

This is why most Indonesian women who marry foreigners choose to live abroad.

By the way - Singapore - which shares a similar Malay culture to Indonesia, abolished a similar law in the early 90's. Singaporian women are now on an equal footing with men.

The reason: The Singapore government realised it was losing many of its best and brightest women because of that law.

There are a number of ways to work around this problem, but they are a headache to say the least.

Now my theory about why? Actually this came straight from the proverbial horse's mouth. A government official recently admitted the reason is because they are afraid all the foreign men will come and take away all the high paying jobs. Go figure.

Next time: Ways to work around the problem...

Korea to Dominate the World? No. But May Become Another Switzerland

2010-11-11T22:22:00.000-08:00

Do I believe Korea has aspirations of world domination? Yes. But do I believe that they will be able to do much about that anytime soon? No.

Unlike Japan, I think they HAVE the chutzpah to pull it off. But there are several things standing in their way:

1.) They are, and for some time to come, will likely continue to be preoccupied with the North. Until that is somehow resolved, I don't think they can seriously entertain ideas of world dominance.

2.) Corollary to the above. Largely because of the geopolitical threat from the North, they are dependent on America for their security. In some sense, you could even say they are an occupied country.

True domination is always accompanied by military might. Witness the enormous build-up of the PLA in China, and its growing percentage of their budget.

And lastly-

3.) Even more so than their brother, Japan, Korea's undying adherence to Juche will keep them on their peninsula for the foreseeable future. Yes, they have the technology, but without the willingness to engage with and be sullied by foreigners and their ways Koreans will forever remain in their small corner of the world.

BUT the whole world is in a transition period like few times before.

Down the road - say a decade or so - Korea could emerge as a leading power, in spite of its shortcomings. But their prowess will be in business, not war.

If ---and this gets into another whole discussion--- what many military experts are saying is true, if defensive weapons are now in the assent and we are also are passing from the ballistic age to the age of smart weapons,

then this all strengthens the case for smaller countries becoming more dominant as the 21st century progresses.

City-states and small compact countries like Korea could have a strategic advantage.

It's a simple idea really: As offensive weapons loose their superiority, small is more easily defended. Welcome the re-emergence of the city-state. Small, agile, integrated and focused on business. Examples? Think Singapore and Hong Kong.

Just as Switzerland had its niche of diplomacy during the cold war, and still has its niche in banking and finely crafted luxury goods,

I see Korea developing its own set of strategic business niches in the future. And that will guarantee it a place at the world table of important countries.

But I don't see it dominating the world in the way that Japan tried (either during the 1930s or 1980s) and failed.

Thinking of Living, Working or Doing Business in Bali?

2010-11-10T22:01:00.000-08:00

This is a short introduction to a series of pieces on the ins and outs of living, working --and if you choose to-- setting up a business in Indonesia. It will stretch the limits of credulity.

Because the bureaucracy is a labyrinth of byzantine inefficiency, corruption and incompetence that boggles the mind. Yet once you successfully jump through the hoops or emerge from the maze (choose your metaphor), Indonesia has much to offer. But be forewarned. It is still a third world country.

When I first came to Indonesia, though I had lived around the world, I soon realised none of the common sense that operates elsewhere worked here...

More to follow....

Korea at an Inflection point. What's next..?

2010-11-10T00:51:00.000-08:00

I'm always amazed when someone predicts the end of some country or sees it taking over the world.

Back in the 80's and early 90's Japan was going to take over the world. By the late 90's, it was a pariah and laughing stock. Couldn't do anything right. Or so many writers made it sound. More recently is has been the Yellow Peril or China.

So - this article caught my attention.

The Miracle Is Over. Now What?
South Korea boomed by turning a rural economy into an industrial power. To keep growing, it's going to have to make some fundamental—and difficult—changes.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704791004575519703277433756.html

I believe this writer poses some very pertinent questions, but then gives us no direction. Having lived in Korea recently, here's my take:

Yes. Korea is at a turning point. Great. Will it make the necessary changes? Will it continue to follow Japan's model?

It is said, if you understand a person's soul, you know his character and if you know his character you can accurately predict his behavior. I believe this can be true for a people as well, especially one as homogeneous as Korea.

When I was in Korea, I was struck by just how much it reminded me of Japan twenty years earlier. [Things which have since changed in Japan].

In so many respects. The work ethic. The closed society. The obsessive drive to be the best - no matter the price. The state control of the export led economy. The dearth of women in the workplace. The xenophobia toward foreigners. But also the genuinely warm, beautiful people once you get to know them.

Just how xenophobic?

One example: Korea is one of the few countries where you cannot buy a local SIM card for your mobile phone and use your own phone. Nope. You have to rent or buy a Korean phone if you want mobile service.

Or if you want to shop at one of Korea's online shops, places like Gmarket, you'll need a credit card issued in Korea and a Korean National ID number to proceed.

But I see differences too. And those will make all the difference in the years to come:

During the 98 crisis, we saw Korea move aggressively compared with other Asian countries. And it recovered more quickly than any other. This is instructive.

I see Korea acting aggressively again. Sure it will make mistakes.
In this regard, it is more like the US: Fire, Aim, Ready...
But it is their persistence and drive to be the best that I believe will lead them to find the solution or solutions that works for them -- their culture and economy.

Case in point, there have already been some notable (and laughable) attempts to diversify its economy.

One is trying to make Seoul, and Korea in general into a tourist destination. The second is the attempt to establish itself as a center for medical tourism.

Anyone living in Korea instantly laughed at both of these propositions.

To be very cruel, blunt and honest. Let's consider the tourism first.
What does Korea have to attract tourists?

Does it have beaches like Thailand or Bali? Mountains? Spiritual retreats?
Does it have culture or history that is of interest to non-Koreans? Or is it the
fountainhead of some established religion?

And more importantly, is it open to outsiders? Can and do its people speak English?
And does it even have an established leisure industry for its own people?

Hmmmm. No on all counts.
North Korea has accurately been called the Hermit Kingdom, but the South shares the same culture.
An insistence on Juche or self-reliance which resists all foreign influence.

Case in point:
It is still difficult to get around most parts of Seoul - the capital city - without some knowledge of Korean.

It is not hard to see how all this will impact its goals - like medical tourism.

Yes. They clearly have the technical expertise and are price competitive. So they may achieve some limited success, but they will only become a destination if they can offer something India, Thailand and Singapore do not.

Another example which demonstrates a fundamental difference between Japan and shows just how bold, aggressive and hungry Korea is.

While Japan has tried to promote and teach its language and culture abroad, it has never tried to get any one else to adopt its writing system for use in their own language. Not Hiragana, Katakana or its version of Chinese characters. They were and are happy to remain different and unique on their island.

The Koreans on the other hand, believe so much in their Hangul script, they even propose it as a solution for other lands and peoples.
Hangul may help others record history
http://www.mygoguryeo.net/news-view.htm?p=&n=34

This shows a will to expand and take on a role in the world. It is also instructive.

So what will happen? Will Korea open up to the world? Allow expanded immigration?
Permit women an equal footing in the work place? Get the government out of its economy?
And diversify away from its export focus?

Yes to all of the above. But not all at once. The economy will come first. Then they will go down the line from least culturally painful to most. Juche will be the last to be abandoned. And women will be barred from most posts for the foreseeable future.

I expect one of the first ideas they will hit on --unknowingly imitating China-- will be to try and tap their diaspora of entrepreneurs. To lure them home with enticing incentives if they will set up or move their businesses to Korea.

Many women will be among this group, thus leapfrogging their male counterparts still working for Korea Inc. And in this way, they will be begrudgingly accepted as part of the solution.

In sum, I cast my vote of confidence that Korea will find new and better ways to deal with its problems effectively and remain a power to be reckoned with well into the future.

As an example of one such way, and which I've saved for the end of this blog: Korea, Seoul to be exact, has just recently become a destination for foodies.

Who would have thought?
Seoul Food
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704901104575424473797840454.html

One can only wonder and watch...

Alternatives to Oil Presage Big Changes Ahead

2010-11-08T21:02:00.000-08:00

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703805704575594112825763700.html?mod=googlenews_wsj
Honda Looks to Grass to Resolve Its Power Needs

This is a very interesting article, but not for its being a trivial-pursuit type of conversation piece. And not for its geek factor or
even its environmental angle. No. But because it is one more hint as to a coming seismic change in how we live and the fuel we'll be using in the years to come.

As of now, most people around this planet still rely on oil in one form or another. Fuel for your car, warmth and cooling
for your home and a thousand countless other things.

And the result of this is - well - pollution, wars over oil etc...

But what will happen when electricity can be produced from renewable grass? (As in this article.) Or when we have 100
different natural alternatives to petrol/gasoline for your auto? Alternatives that are 100% renewable and either don't pollute
at all or only pollute a fraction of what oil and and its derivatives do today?

In fact - more and more people are turning used cooking oil into just that.
http://www.biodieselworks.com/home-fried-fuel/
Home Fried Fuel

And then there are those who are looking at other alternatives: manure for example.
http://www.enn.com/top_stories/article/9782
Vehicle Institute Works to Develop 'Biogas'-powered Car

But the really interesting thing to contemplate is:
How are things going to change when there are various, viable,
cheap, 100% renewable and natural, clean alternatives to oil?

The price of oil is going to crash.
Can you imagine the oil producing countries - especially of the Middle East?
Do you think they will be able to maintain their current political and economic leverage?

Or Big Oil?
And if oil importing countries are no longer beholden to the producers, how might that
begin changing the balance of power around the world?

And what about the business and investment opportunities that will open up?

Right now, it's just a minuscule cloud on the horizon. Tomorrow it may change the way we live.

Buying glasses online - Is it for you?

2009-11-09T02:25:00.001-08:00

I now have two pairs of new glasses. One I ordered online, the other I got from a local optical shop. I hate one and love the other.

I love everything about the glasses from the local shop, even though they cost 3X as much as the online pair. As for the online pair, they are sub-par in every respect.

Why? and How?
Well - buying glasses online is one of the new things. Apparently one of the many waves of the future. And one of the businesses that just a short time ago people said would never migrate online.
So - if you're thinking about this new avenue, there is some homework you'll have to do and some issues to be aware of if you want to navigate this process successfully.

My experience (in all its gory detail - complete with website addresses) :

It all started when I moved to the desert. It's not so much the sun from above, but the reflection off the nearly white ground that makes the glare so unbearable. The only other places I've experienced anything similar is sitting on a beach at noon, and skiing.

You see, I've worn contacts for years. So you'd think I could just put a pair of sunglasses on and be done with it. But no - I had to complicate things. Here's why :

The desert is dry and dusty, and I simply found my glasses more comfortable. Until I went outside, that is. And here's where the rub began -- they were standard clear lenses. And since I didn't want to be constantly changing back and forth from prescription sunglasses to I decided it was time to get some photochromic (lens that get darker in the sun - or as I call them Clear-in, Dark-out) glasses again.

I'd had them years before and been very happy with them. Go in - all clear. Go out - sunglass feature kicks in. Very nice. But I'd had to give them up when I entered a very conservative corporate environment. (I was helping the salesmen and even the slight tint was considered shady.)

Now -back in the desert- Clear-in, Dark-out lens were again beckoning me. I just had to get a pair. So - a shopping I went. La da di di.....
But a quick trip to my local optical shop soon revealed it was going to be a major investment.
One of the local shops quoted me over US$200 just for the lens. Then frames were going to cost another few hundred. OUCH!

Wow.
There had to be a better way.
So - as I often do - off to the Internet I went.

EUREKA!

There I discovered that buying glasses online was one of the new waves. The rational , supposedly, is that local optical shops were riddled with waste and inefficiency. And therefore, like so many other things, buying online provided vastly more options at factory direct prices. Cutting out the hated and useless middle-man.

You could now get high quality, stylish glasses at a fraction of the normal cost. Or so the phenomenon was touted.

OK. I'm curious.

At first it looked promising. I could get the lens I wanted -- in fact even a better lens that I'd been looking at locally for about $130 dollars, plus shipping.

And then it occurred to me, I could save the cost of frames by using a pair of sunglasses I had. (There are a number of sites on the Internet that will let you send in your old frames and have new lens put in.)

Hmmmmm. This sounded promising. So, I dug out the old pair of almost unused sunglasses and I began doing my homework.
The first order of business was to figure out what my prescription was.

I went to several local shops while on summer holiday. They were nice enough to do the eye-exam free of charge. The problem was each gave me a different reading. Out of 5, two said I didn't need any change at all. One said I needed significantly more powerful glasses --even though I was still using the old ones without major discomfort. And still two more suggested slight changes. But even their recommendations didn't align.

By shear default, I decided to stay with my prescription as it was since. Even though truth be known, I could sense that maybe there was some small adjustment that might be necessary. But not being an optician, I couldn't exactly put my finger on it.

Then there was the matter of Pupilary Distance.
I know. It was Greek to me the first time I read it too. That is the distance in millimeters between the center of one eye to the center of the other. This is a measurement opticians need so they can let your eyes look out the center of the lens.

Back to my prescription. I had two different readings from the five. Two places hadn't taken this measurement, two had it at 67, and one at 68. So again, since the glasses I was wearing were 67, I decided to go with that reading.

Alright - so I have prescription, pupilary distance, and frames. Let's order.
Not so fast.
At least that's what I said to myself. Something about getting those sunglasses turned into Clear-in, Dark out glasses didn't feel right. I don't know. Maybe it was the idea of buying such expensive lenses and putting them into such basic (read cheap frames).
Or maybe I was concerned about the fit or fashion. I mean just because something works as a sunglasss...
They are big and round. Great for outdoors, but not quite what you want in a professional environment. After all - the glasses you wear do create an impression of you.

Other problems [things I didn't feel good about] began to emerge.

And this is important when you're doing something new for the first time. That sense of confidence. I remember my first ever online purchase back in 1996. It was from Amazon.com. And even though it was all strange and foreign, they layed out the process so there were no questions, including little phrases along the way like : 'You will have a chance to review and cancel this if there are any mistakes'.

This kind of thing let you know that you were not locked into the deal yet. Then, of course, there was their insurance policy : If anything happened to your books and they didn't arrive for any reason, you'd be refunded...

But with these sites offering glasses, there is always something missing. Something that for a rank first-timer made me wonder.

One site wanted to charge me $30 for shipping (because I live outside America), when I emailed them they told me the package would not even be trackable.
http://www.simplyeyeglasses.com/

Hmmm.... I just didn't like that.
And that was even after I copied the evidence showing them that one of their competitors could do the same shipping for $8.95.

So, even thought the site was easy to understand, they seemed to have good lens with lots of little extras thrown in, and the option to send in my own frames - I just didn't feel right.

Then there was another site that looked good, but I had some questions so I decided to call.
http://www.eyeglassdirect.com/

As I started asking about different things, I very quickly got the feeling my questions were a bother because the answers were short and dismissive. The lady even cut me off at one point and told me she was the only one on the phones that day and had other calls...

Oh...sorry...

I wanted to tell her and the people who run that site : Come on, folks, this might be all old-hat to you, but for me there are a lot of unknowns and I'm trying to narrow those down a bit. I need you to have the patience to help me though this process.

So, I looked and researched and tried getting answers on my own.
But that's not all. This same site also wanted extra surcharges for high powered prescriptions. Guess what? I fell in that area.
Ouch. $20 bucks because I have a high prescription. I don't know, but it didn't feel good. Like I was being punished again for having bad eyes...

As a result I decided to put this project on hold. At this point I had already invested 20+ hours.

But I needed something badly. I mean the sun wasn't getting any dimmer, so finally I began looking at some other sites that didn't allow me to send in my frames.

There was one I felt really good about.
http://www.eyebuydirect.com/

It reminded me of Amazon.
Everything seemed to be ready for the first-timer.
The site was easy to understand. I quickly found some frames I thought would work, they seemed to have the lenses I needed and the guarantee was great.

http://www.eyebuydirect.com/eyeglasses-refund-policy.php

Here's part of what it said :
"In the event you are not completely satisfied with your eyeglasses you may return them to us and get FULL refund (shipping costs NOT included) or a NEW pair- NO QUESTIONS ASKED!!!
But why stop there??

Frames are too big or small - 100% Refund
Colors don’t suit you- 100% Refund
Wife doesn’t like the frame- 100% Refund
Neighbor just bought same design- 100% Refund
New collection just came out – 100% Refund
Your dog chewed on your new frames – 100% Refund"

I really like this. I was just about ready to buy, but something about the lens description made me wonder ---that and the price. They cost about half as much as the Transitions at the other two places. Anyway - all this made if it was the real Transitions lens. I mean would these get dark enough.

So - as so many times before and after I wrote email.
Their response was very professional and quick. And it DID take asking the same question twice before I finally got them to admit that 'No - these are a generic brand which will only get about half as dark as a normal pair of sunglasses.'

Awww. Snap!
Deal breaker.
Back to the drawing board.

While this was semi-boiling in the background, I visited many more sites. Some in Britain and Europe, but never found anything which seemed to have what I wanted/needed for a reasonable price and where I could feel comfortable.

Again - I put it on the back burner.
But eventually found myself searching again. This time though, I began looking to see if there was some other kind of high quality Clear-in, Dark-out lens.

Maybe there was something I had somehow over looked. Because I'm of the belief that there are always alternatives, if I'm just willing to look for them.

And that's when I happened on a site I'd visited before that talked of Sunsenors, originally developed by Corning. These were another brand of Clear-in, Dark-out lens that were reputed to be even better than Transitions.

So I went looking for Sunsensors. It didn't take long when I suddenly found this place that seemed to have all the pieces of the puzzle. They advertised Sunsensors, you could customize the size of your lenses (on rimless frames), their price was on par with eyebuydirect, there was no punishment - I mean extra payment - for having bad eyes. And the postage was reasonable.

So - I finally took the plunge, but I will never do business with this site again - ever.
http://www.myopticalshop.com/

The first sign that all was not well, came with the email order confirmation.
The return address was in TAIWAN.

Hmmmmm.
Back to the site. There was no mention of that.
Right. There it is. That is a fax number in the USA.

I've been to Taiwan and I've lived in China. I've seen some world-class operations there. So -
OK. A bit of a surprise, I thought, but as long as they do it right and don't cheat me I don't care where they're located.

Now I know that thought was a mistake.
But it gnawed on me. Why have a fax number in the USA?
Why lead people to believe you're located in the U.S. when you're in fact half-way around the world?

http://www.myopticalshop.com/help.php?section=contactus&mode=update

Here is the verbage in question :

"Contact us in the following ways:
- Use contact us form below
- Fax: 1-866-414-4469
- Email: contact@myopticalshop.com"

For those taking notes, this should have been the first red flag. I missed it in my excitement at having finally found (I thought) what I was looking for.

Later - returning to this page, I recognised several more glaring red flags :
When you I went to the 'Contact Us' link, it only gave you a form to email them (and the fax number I mentioned above.)
There is no physical address or telephone number. Giant red flags I'd ignored in my haste and excitement.

Things didn't get any better from there.

When I hadn't heard anything over a week after ordering, I contacted them to ask when they expected to ship my glasses...
You see - they had not contacted me since my order to give me any more information or follow up.
Unfortunately, the answer I got was not inspiring. They said they'd had a national holiday and were behind in production.
No apology. The tone was one "why are you being so unreasonable. We'll ship them - alright?"
Tell me honestly. Do I care if they have a holiday?
OK.. Not off to a good start, but I was still hopeful.

I wrote a couple more emails over the next couple of weeks. Finally they informed me shipment had been made, but there was no apology for the delay.
So - again I wrote asking for a tracking number.
They sent an email with a list of websites for various countries postal services I could check. But there was no tracking number and no answer as to why it was missing or how to use that list of websites.
Because at this point, I was not even sure where they might have sent it from. And Taiwan's postal system was not on the list.

Long story short. I did my homework and still there was no way to track this elusive package.
So I waited and got on with life.

Finally after another 2+ weeks, it finally showed up one day.
Excited, but by now I was almost resentful this little package that had already been the cause of so much fuss.
Anyway - I opened it up and put them on.
Well - they fit so so... OK I'll have to get them adjusted. To be expected.

In the meantime, I decided to start getting used to them.

I immediately took them and out into the midday Saudi sun. They began to darken, so I waited...
Hmmm. They don't feel that dark, I thought.

I took them off to look at them. Not so dark...Yet.
OK we'll stay a bit longer. Maybe this takes a while especially the first time.
After about 5 minutes in the noon sun of the desert, I realised that not only was I still squinting, but the glasses weren't getting any darker.

I took them off again and looked at them straight on. They were about as dark as a tinted lens, or about half as dark as a regular pair of sunglasses.

To be a bit more exact - I have another pair of Oakley Sunglasses. It has 5 different lens in varying shades of darkness. The first is a just tinted a lens you could wear inside. The next darker would be good on a overcast day. The 3rd lens is a mild pair of sunglasses - good for an early spring morning.
The 4th and 5th shades get serious. Number four is a standard pair of sunglasses. Good for most summer days. And the last one, the only one that has mirror coating is what you wear on the beach, skiing or in the desert.

These new glasses that I'd spent so much time and effort researching and now waiting for - were only as dark as the second lens in my Oakley set.

OK... I try to hold back judgement. Let's give it some time. These are new glasses. Maybe they need time to start getting darker I thought.
So I wore them for about a week.
Still no change.

So I wrote to tell the place I wanted my money back. They told me they'd give me my money back if I returned glasses.
They said this was their guarantee policy.

By the way - this was yet another red flag I missed : They do not share this policy anywhere on their site. In fact when you click on the Terms and Conditions page, or the Site Map page, you get this error message :

"Page not found!

The requested page does not exist or you are not allowed to access it!"

Now - under normal circumstances I'd think their policy was more than fair. OK, I'm out some postage, so what. I'll return them and get on with life.

But this was different. I went back to their website to look again. YEP. It clearly says their glasses get "as dark as normal sunglasses", see below. AND it uses both the Sunsensor and Transitions names to describe their lens.

http://www.myopticalshop.com/pages.php?pageid=2

Here's the relevant paragraph :

"Photochromic (sun-sensor) 1.56 index lens

High index 1.56
4 times faster than most other brands
Also called transition, sun-sensor lens, this type of lens changes color from clear indoor to dark outdoor
Darkness is as dark as sunglasses outdoor under strong UV light (my emphasis)
Many colors to choose from
High quality plastic lens
Premium lens treatment with anti-reflective, anti-glare, anti-scracth, water resistant, UV400 coating"

OK....To be fair, this was another red flag I missed. Sunsenor and Transitions were NOT capitalized, nor did they have the Trademark symbol after them, but the implication was clear. And if that wasn't enough, they had promised Sunglass Darkness.

Later - in their emails, they even admitted that their glasses were not as dark as some....and that they were a generic lens - NOT one of the two brand names.

Yet they still refused to pay the postage as well.

After more emails, they finally told me their policy allowed them to let me keep the glasses and they'd give me 25% off the original offer to take them back, but then I was out the postage BOTH ways.

Since I didn't want to be out $30-40 for postage and still have nothing to show for it, I decided to keep them as a cheap pair of back up glasses.
To be fair they DO work inside.

But there was still more bad news I was going to find out about in a couple days...

During this whole time negotiating with this website about their false claims, I went back to one of the sites I had almost bought from before.
http://www.eyeglassdirect.com/

I spend several days looking yet again. Checking, measuring, calculating... These real Transitions lenses with frame, punishment charges, and shipping were going to run me $235.

I kept wanting to push the button and order them, but something still kept stopping me. I don't know why, but I decided to wait and at least get the glasses I already had adjusted first.

That's where I got yet another shock.
The titanium these frames were made of (which I thought was supposed to make them really strong) makes them nearly impossible to adjust.
That's because the nose pads are not held by a normal U-shaped wire, but a nearly straight one.

And then because I couldn't actually see the frames on my face, actually see how they'd FEEL and FIT like you'd do if you went and actually tried frames on. Because I'd gotten them online, I could really only measure carefully and GUESS how they'd fit. They are too small for my face.

Result? : the frames sit too high on my face. That means every time I want to look down there's this gaping space where I have no lens. And there's nothing I can do.
But I had already agreed to keep them, so now I was stuck.

You can guess what I did. I went home and immediately checked the frames I was THINKING about getting. Were they the same type? Sure enough they were the same kind impossible to adjust frame.

So, next time I was at the mall, I decided to just take a look at one of the local glasses shops.
I was just curious.

It didn't take more than 5 minutes before, with the help of the optician, I found several pairs of glasses that fit me and complimented my features.

One in particular was perfect.
Ooooh. It was $300 for the frames. But with 30% off, it was just over $200. Still pricey so I kept looking.

Yet - I kept coming back to that one pair. It was like they'd been made for my face. My wife said they were the best fit and style too.

Still I wasn't giving up on the virtues of online shopping. So I noted all the relevant information and went home to do research yet again.

Alas, I couldn't find those frames I like so well online. And as I was searching, it began to dawn on me that the local optometrist DID provide value.

I mean, I'd had every intention of using this kind gentleman to get the information I needed, then go home and find it online for a fraction of the price he was asking.

But what became apparent was that in less than 15 minutes, this gentle, knowledgeable man had helped me find just what I needed.

It was at this point, I began to shift my thinking as I realised there was definite value in having an optometrist help you find the frames that were the right size and shape for your features.

Because I'd tried the glasses on, I could be perfectly confident they'd fit, look good, and be practical and professional-looking indoor and out. Not so when shopping online. There is always the Doubt-Factor.

But there was still the problem of the cost of the lenses and how that compared to online. The thought even passed through my mind that I might just get the frames locally and send them away to get the lenses online.

So I actually began to ask what it would cost if I bought the whole thing locally? Since I'd done my home work, I new that the price he was asking for the Transitions was only $20 more than the place online. The postage alone do it online would be at least $20. So it was a wash.
($200 for frames and $150 for lenses.)

So what was the total price? And how did THAT compare?

Well, if you'll remember the glasses (with frames that may have turned out NOT to fit me) was $233.

That was the online price all inclusive. But if there were any problems, this place only allows EXCHANGE. No Refunds - period. So - IF the frames didn't fit for some reason or there were any other problem, this price would start going up.

Not to mention the waiting, hassle and possible headaches.

So what would it come to IF i got everything locally?

About $350

Hmmm?

As you can guess by now, on my next trip back to that shop, and I bought that pair of glasses and have no regrets.

In the end, I paid 3X what I paid online, but the difference is immense.

Instead of substandard, generic half-dark lens in a frame that doesn't fit me, I have a pair of beautiful glasses with lenses that I can wear anywhere -- inside or out in the desert.

Don't get me wrong. I take full responsibility for the online frames not fitting me well. But the lenses not being what they were advertised to be. Well - That was fraud.

I guess there are some things that you still need to do the old-fashioned way. And maybe the optometrists who work in those glasses shops are not as useless as I might have thought.

Conclusion :

So does that mean buying glasses online is a bad idea?

No.

I think if you have a very low-powered prescription, you don't need progressives/bifocals, have astigmatism or any other complicating factors, and you are happy with a generic, common pair of frames or have your own, shopping online may be a great way to save a few dollars.

But, there is a significant amount of information you need to gather and verify.

And if things don't go right for any reason [your error or theirs] very few places can or will put it right without it costing you more money.

Epilogue :

Oh - and one more thing. At the local optometrist - I was finally able to get the correct prescription too. It was just a minor adjustment, but it makes all the difference.

P.s. For anybody who is interested in the actually email exchanges, or if you have other questions about my experience, welcome to drop me a line through this blog.

P.p.s. Over one year after writing the posting above, I am still happy with the locally bought glasses. The others? They are tucked away in a drawer - just in case.

Taiwan - A Dream Job for some. An Insult for others

2009-01-01T20:54:00.000-08:00

Taiwan - A Dream Job for some. An Insult for others

As ESL is one of the main employers of foreigners, I'm going to focus my comments on this area.

If you go to any of the big forums, you'll see all kinds of posts for and against coming to this tiny sub-tropical island nation, as well as an array of recruiters stealth advertising [telling you about the great pay, benefits and lifestyle. 'Come one-come all, seems to be the message'].

But if it really is an island paradise - why isn't everyone flocking to get there, and why the need for so much advertising?

Alright. To be fair - every country trots out its Sunday Best to attract whatever talent they are in need of. Some better than others. [Just 5 short years ago, China was pathetic, but they've learned quickly. That's a subject for another posting.]

So the question really becomes - Who IS Taiwan right for? In other words - since it's not all bad. And it isn't paradise - what kind of person will profit most from a stint or even a career there?

Whenever you contact a school directly or a recruiter, one of the first questions you'll hear is : "Are you a
certified teacher?"
What about experience?
Very few schools seem concerned - being more than happy to take someone fresh out of university.

With this in mind - let's consider the situation back home (In America since many of the schools specifically advertise for Americans).

If you've just graduated with a degree in Education or only have a year or two experience, you may not even have a full-time time job. Many people have to make due with substitute teaching for quite some time. And the pay and conditions even if you land that first job - well - will not likely be peachy. Add to that the high tax-rate in the US [Federal, state, local, welfare and sales tax etc...], rent, the need for a car, paying back student loans...

For such a person - teaching for a year or two in Taiwan could be the perfect job for a variety of reasons.
A credentialed teacher is almost guaranteed a full-time job earning roughly US$2,000/month. Of course it helps if you're camera-friendly, as many of the positions openly solicit the stereotypical white North American.

Even on the surface -- that is not a bad deal. But when you begin to consider the low cost of living [an generous size one-room apartment can be had for US$200-300] and the low tax rate, [lowest tax rate starts at 6%], you won't need a car, because you can get around on a scooter or good public transit. You can begin to see - it becomes quite a winning proposition economically. Especially some who might have student loans to pay back, want to buy a home or just want to save.

Not to sound like a shameless advertisement, because the bad news is coming.

But on top of that, Taiwan has a world-class medical system that many say is better than back home, and universal, cheap insurance. Lastly - don't forget you'll have a box seat to the most dynamic economy in the world just across the straits in China and the opportunity to learn Mandarin and you begin to get an idea of how a move to Taiwan could be just your ticket.

BUT -- and there's always a but -- isn't there?

Here's the downside :

Taiwan is actually quite a mature ESL market, with the vast majority of work focusing on teaching young learners.

If that's not what you're looking for - you may want to reconsider.

What Taiwan seems to have opted for is a sort of bilingual education. More and more schools seem to be competing by promising the parents an American style education right along side their Chinese traditional formation.

This means - that most schools are really NOT looking for an ESL professional. Ie. It really is not someone with years of experience or an MA in Applied Linguistics, but a kindergarten or primary school teacher from the home country who is willing to be transplanted into a Taiwanese school for a year or two.

And as with many (but not all) ESL markets, the majority of teachers in Taiwan tend to be young and inexperienced. Translation : Many are either incompetent, irresponsible or both.

Employers for their part ---remember the inscrutable Chinese?--- have responded by creating contracts and working conditions similar to that of the very primary schools they operate. Clock in clock out. You pay is docked for tardiness to class. A portion of you pay is held back as insurance against teachers suddenly fleeing the country.

Does that sound like the way a professional is treated?

Of course - no one can really say whether the chicken or the egg came first. Did the employers respond? Or did their policies attract only the bottom of the barrel?

Whichever - it really doesn't matter.
The bottom line : You won't find many people with high credentials and years experience working at these schools.

A couple more things - someone considering Taiwan should consider.

Good : Schools will usually help you find an apartment near your school, so commute times are quite low.
Social life : There is a large expat community in almost any city of any size. There is Western food everywhere and Chinese food is very easy for westerners to develop a liking for as a general rule.

As mentioned above, because the cost of living is low, many people are able to live on half their pay and bank the other half.

On the downside :

Many schools have a formal age discrimination policy of not hiring any one over 32 or 35. Many people complain about the pollution in Taiwan. [To be fair - it is many times better than China, but worse than Japan or many places in North America.]

You have to pay for your flights, transportation in country, visa processing and all expenses related to apartment.
[The reason I mention these as bad points is because there are other countries that WILL pay for all or part of these thing in order to attract teachers. Namely the Middle East. But that is another whole ball of wax.]

Now - I also must make special mention of another thing which most people don't talk about, but which I found to be a real minus. Most Westerners can just show up in Taiwan and tour around for 30 days or less - visa-free. But - if you want to stay longer than that - OR [and here's the kicker] get a working visa, you have to enter Taiwan with a special longer term Visit Visa. And to get this - you have to make special arrangements with the Taiwan consulate nearest you. But remember - since Taiwan is not recognised by most countries in the world, it may not be conveniently located.
Translation : Extra trouble, expense and time needed.

And that's not all of it. Once you get to Taiwan - IF your school is not forthright and quick about assembling the necessary paperwork before your Visit Visa runs out - you may have to leave the country on what's called a Visa-run to say, Hong Kong, get you passport stamped and return.

Guess who pays for that?
YOU.

And then there is always the little detail of paying two months rent as a deposit in addition to the current month.

Why is this important?

Because you need to have a certain amount of cash in order to get established.

This is another criteria I will be considering in these posts. What are the Start-Up costs? How much is the initial outlay before you can start earning money. And after you get established, how much can you expect to bank each month after expenses?

And lastly - we need to return to tax talk.
If you work less than six months in Taiwan, or arrive after June, you get to pay 20% tax until Dec 31.

So - let's add this all up.
Plane ticket : 1000US + 3 months rent 750US + money for visa run 750US, money to survive your first 2 months ,2000US since your school may withhold most of your first months pay AND if you arrive in September as is common, you pay 20% tax.

You do the math.
That's the situation in Taiwan as I see it.

In coming posts, we'll be considering China, Japan, Korea and the Middle East. IS one better, worse? For who and why?

Which Country?

2008-12-30T22:39:00.000-08:00

In the past, I never thought about this. Now - it's a matter of vital importance.

Which country?

I've been working overseas for years, but for the first time recently it became very central to my job search. You see - before I had always confined myself to a single country. In other words, I knew where I wanted to go. I had decided beforehand which country I wanted to go to -- and frankly economic considerations were not at the top of my agenda.

That has changed.

So - during that recent job search - the idea of comparing and contrasting countries took on a central role. And to be blunt - the amount of money I could bank at the end of the month was one of the principal considerations.

Yes - of course - the quality of life too - but for the moment I'm going to confine my comments to some questions I asked, a few answers I've discovered and some initial conclusions I've come to.

The first country I considered was Taiwan. Here's what I found :

(To be continued...)