Conventional Thinkers ALWAYS Get It Wrong In Times Of Change

http://english.aljazeera.net/indepth/opinion/2011/08/2011816104945411574.html


Nouriel Roubini is Chairman of Roubini Global Economics, Professor of Economics at the Stern School of Business, New York University, and co-author of the book Crisis Economics.

WOW!
You'd think a big wig like that should know something. But don't be fooled. He doesn't know what he's talking about because...

He is a conventional thinker in times of extraordinarily breathtaking change. Not a recipe for accurate, actionable thinking.

He is feeding us prescriptions from the past. Like a Hollywood writer who's long since run out of material, he just keeps writing the same story with changed names.

He misdiagnosis the problem as Capitalism. No. Capitalism is fine. Alive and well. It is Government which can no longer meet the needs of a changing world. A world that is becoming one big market. It is government that is standing in the way of progress on nearly every front.

It is government which steals vast amounts of our money at gun-point and then squanders it on the most unbelievably inane and ghastly projects. It is government which has bankrupted itself with greed and the most grotesque mismanagement of resources possible.

So gross in fact, many times the return on capital by government is not even 1 - 1, but negative.

And we will not have a 1930's style depression. No. This will be a long soft, recession, more reminiscent of the 1970s. The West or center of the empire is now beginning its own lost decade like Japan. Only without the benefit of huge piles of savings.

He is right. Many people in the middle class ARE losing ground. But that is because they've been overpaid in protected markets. Markets which governments can no longer protect as they become deeper and more integrated. More integrated as they become ever more exposed to global competition. That is why the Middle class are losing ground.

And Roubini's MIS-diagnosis, and MAL-prescription that we return to policies and ways of thinking from the past are a good example of why the old adage "Ivory-tower idiot" is still so apt.

Riots and Protests Everywhere - WHY?

As the title suggests, there are demos and riots happening all over the globe. And most of them share a common theme. Or rather two...

See if you see the pattern in these various exhibits:

A. Recent demo in NY against Wall Street in particular and the rich in general. Message: The rich should pay more tax. Submessage: People protesting should be getting that money.

B. British riots. We hear there is some a whiff of race and a dollop of police brutality, but the real chicken in the pot seems to be  about "class". 'About the exploitation of the working class by the owning class'.
Message: The owning class needs to 'give' to the "exploited".

C. 'Watts (L.A.) remembers 1965. As they reflect, many say the problems of poverty that fed those riots haven't been addressed or improved. There are fears of a repeat.

D. Riots in Israel continue...  They are outraged that market forces have made it too expensive for many to live in the posh, cultured areas. Message: The government should take money from somebody and give it to them - subsidize their lifestyle.

E. And in Chile. (University) Students are demanding the government make their education free.

What these all have in common:

The President of Chile summed it well when he told the students: 'You ask for free education, but someone has to pay for that.' He went on to point out that if he gave them what they were asking for, the poor would also end up paying for the relatively well-to-do students.

And that is the crux of every demo in this first list : They want some other class of people to subsidize their living.

These are the GIMME DEMOS.

Then there is another set of demos with a separate theme:

In Japan people are demonstrating against their government's secrecy about the extent of the nuclear fall out. (Interesting this is happening right after the Hiroshima and Nagasaki anniversaries...)

Then, there is the ongoing story in the Middle East.
In this latter group, the common theme is DISTRUST. In Japan they want transparency and accountability. In the Middle East they are demanding Transparency, Accountability and Equality of opportunity.

The Difference?

The demos in first group LOOK TO GOVERNMENT FOR SOLUTIONS to problems of living they can't or don't want to deal with on their own.

The second group realises, GOVERNMENT IS THE PROBLEM. And they are demanding reform.

Yes. Riots and Demos are taking place across the globe, but not all demos are created equally.