Opinions are like Assholes

One of the opinion articles in the WSJ today perfectly illustrates why the ruling class of so-called experts is despised by the masses.

Aid North Korea's Victims
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204612504576610551421032670.html?mod=WSJAsia_hpp_MIDDLE_Video_Third

The article advocates the US set up a refugee program in Beijing to help escaping North Koreans reach freedom and thereby hasten the collapse of the Hermit Kingdom.

I agree. NGOs should help escaping North Koreans as they pass through China. And yes - if vast numbers were to begin escaping - it would weaken the regime.

BUT and here's the point this idiot has not considered: If such a policy were openly publicised, and it DID have the intended effect...

What would such a madman do if he felt his grip on power slipping away? (Not to mention relations with China - if the US embassy in Beijing were a known asylum and transit point for North Koreans to the US)

It could very well lead to a full-scale invasion by the North. An invasion that could likely set off a regional war involving the Six Parties (US. China, Russia, Japan, North & South Korea) at the very least. 

I think anybody proposing a strategy that would threaten the North Korean dictator better sit silently and patiently consider the kind of maniac they're dealing with and prepare for the consequences.

There are only a few ways to bring him down -- and none of them is very palatable. From most aggressive to least:
1. An all out invasion by the US, Korea and Japan.
2. A CIA-coup like the one in Tehran in 1953.  Or
3. ---and this seems to be the path North Korea's neighbors have chosen--- let conditions get so bad inside North Korea that A. the the people finally rise up and overthrow their dictator or B. the system finally collapses under its own weight when it can no longer even feed the army.

Is such a strategy a terrible thing to do? Yes. Absolutely, but the consequences of being more aggressive might mean a war that could consume Asia, set it back a generation and end life for 100,000,000 people or more!

So much for the opinions of so-called "experts"....

The Euro On One Leg And Losing Its Balance

Germans Reconsider Ties to Europe

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204138204576598643746175236.html?mod=WSJ_hp_us_mostpop_read

The article has chilling implications.

How long till the return of the Mark, the Franc, Lira, Peso, Guilder (Netherlands), Markka (Finland), Krone (Denmark), Drachma etc...?

And just how will the exit take place?


Because the writing is definitely on the proverbial wall: The Germans  -- the bulwarks and principal backers (read financiers) of the Euro -- are wavering in their resolve.


Sentiment, or the mood of the markets, is something wise investors watch. Now - it may be time to watch the mood of Germany toward the Euro because when pessimism about the Euro becomes widespread - the end of the Euro is insight.

And when the leaders of Europe begin vehemently denying a return to national currencies - it is imminent. DUCK. Run for cover. Cut any exposure to Europe and prepare for the real Financial Tsunami to hit.

EUROPE --- Repeating History: More World Wars?

Criticism of America is popular, ubiquitous and most-often well-deserved. And because it is the central actor on the world stage, it is also the easiest target.

But what of Europe? Remember - those people who consider themselves the paragons of a higher humanity, greater sense of justice and who seem to make the world's luxury goods eat equally well....

Are also the Idiots who've plunged the world into - not one - but TWO world wars. And as the threat of a disorderly breakup of the Euro (which is a question of When - not If) grows greater by the day ---- it may well be Full-Of-Itself Europe that AGAIN plunges the world into chaos.

Below is a quote from an article in the WSJ that accurately illustrates the risks to Europe --- A sort of Damned if it does and damned if it doesn't scenario in regard to Greece's bankruptcy:

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204422404576593122004251398.html


"The cost to Greece of exiting the euro could be up to 20% of GDP, according to Credit Suisse estimates. But once the taboo of euro exit is broken, other fiscally troubled countries will be at risk of similarly catastrophic bank runs, raising the specter of a disorderly euro break-up. That could trigger losses of up to €300 billion in core euro-zone banks and €630 billion among peripheral countries' banks, Credit Suisse estimates."

And if that happens, the vaunted Europe will likely sink back into a second Dark Age. At least in such a state of barbarity, they are less likely to be a menace to the world again anytime soon.

Twilight of America: Waiting in a vacuum...

Most people would consider this fantasy, but America is already no longer the great superpower. The signs are everywhere. Daily. Problem is, because most people cannot conceive of such a world, it is not even within the realm of possibility in most minds.

Like an "OFF LIMITS" sign hangs inside the brain.

But, push the sign aside, embrace the possibility and the signs are EVERYwhere.

Just today, there are two articles in WSJ. Most people probably read and pass on thinking "Oh, that was interesting/sad/great...." Whatever the individual sentiment. But failing to see the connection.

Hong Kong is planning for the DEpegging of its dollar to the US.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424053111904060604576574640464933236.html?mod=WSJAsia_hpp_LEFTTopStories

Then there is an article about America's aging military hardware.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424053111904103404576561053811426640.html

Two paragraphs really tell the story in a nutshell:

"The Aegis guided-missile cruiser, a warship designed to counter the threat of Soviet warplanes armed with antiship missiles, entered service in 1983. Today, the bridges of older Aegis ships are reminiscent of the video arcades of the 1980s: monochromatic consoles with push-button controls. "The systems that we are replacing are Commodore 64 technology," says Navy Capt. Brian Eckerle, invoking the primitive home computer to describe ongoing efforts to modernize Cold War-era ships.

One Air Force pilot describes the navigation systems in his unit's C-130 cargo planes, which entered service nearly three decades ago, as "antiquated." A navigator in his unit, he says, bought an off-the-shelf Global Positioning System device that can better provide weather information and the latest civil aviation notices, and even check the accuracy of the government-issued navigation system."

When commercicaly available technology is superior to the elite military goods  - you know the powers that be are asleep. The important takeaway is to note the inflection point has probably already passed. America is probably already no longer in control of the seas in Asia.

And...

The US dollar is already no longer the world reserve currency. IN FACT. Yet, the world continues in its fantasy that it is. Why? - because most of us have never known a world any different. We simply have trouble imagining it is even possible or fear what it might mean.

Even those who hate America - like an opposition party in parliament - are often at a loss when faced with the possibility of ruling.

So the world sits and waits for a new world leader or leaders, or whatever system will emerge. Meanwhile - it is just easier to pretend nothing has changed.

Business-Enviro Trend To Watch

The Wall Street Journal has what seems to be just another article about Foreign Direct Investment by an internet company - Google. But it is much more profound than that. Welcome to the Enviro-Business Model.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424053111904836104576560551005570810.html

Companies all over the world have been shaving and sawing off costs everywhere they can for a long time.
Old News. People call these frictions. Or basically anything that inhibits or slows down, any barrier to business.

Whether that means more time, more money, more materials, more info processing, higher labor costs, operational costs.... Everything is on the chopping block.

And this article points to the next trend: Enviro-Restructuring. That is, businesses looking for ways to make their business more harmonious with nature so as to save money with the ultimate aim of becoming more competitive.

In Google's case, they've come to the not-hard-to-understand conclusion that their data centers eat up an enormous amounts of energy. Energy that impacts their expenses and competitive position vis-a-vis rivals.

Solution? Locate the data centers somewhere cold. Where the ambient temperature helps cool the servers.

When you think about it, it's so perfectly logical one almost wonders why it hasn't been done already. Why? Because in the West, since the Industrial Revolution and the advent of Germ Theory and vaccines, we have tended to ignore nature.

There has been a lot of arrogance. A real attempt to defy and live beyond the laws of nature. What has followed in its path is a destruction and degradation of the planet. And of course, the reaction to that - Environmental Extremism.  

But I see a reversal. A tacit, quiet admission. Tentative. But unmistakable. Business is realising that while it has never been cost effective - now the competitive pressures are laying bare costs that were formerly hidden or ignored.

Internet companies are truly on the leading edge of so MANY trends that are reshaping our world, but look to see more and more companies around the world following Google's lead.

First it will be internet and other technology companies. But within a year or two it should start to broaden to other industries.

Here's the takeaway: Is your company ready when this wave hits? Or will you be left behind?
Watch the wave...

Conventional Thinkers ALWAYS Get It Wrong In Times Of Change

http://english.aljazeera.net/indepth/opinion/2011/08/2011816104945411574.html


Nouriel Roubini is Chairman of Roubini Global Economics, Professor of Economics at the Stern School of Business, New York University, and co-author of the book Crisis Economics.

WOW!
You'd think a big wig like that should know something. But don't be fooled. He doesn't know what he's talking about because...

He is a conventional thinker in times of extraordinarily breathtaking change. Not a recipe for accurate, actionable thinking.

He is feeding us prescriptions from the past. Like a Hollywood writer who's long since run out of material, he just keeps writing the same story with changed names.

He misdiagnosis the problem as Capitalism. No. Capitalism is fine. Alive and well. It is Government which can no longer meet the needs of a changing world. A world that is becoming one big market. It is government that is standing in the way of progress on nearly every front.

It is government which steals vast amounts of our money at gun-point and then squanders it on the most unbelievably inane and ghastly projects. It is government which has bankrupted itself with greed and the most grotesque mismanagement of resources possible.

So gross in fact, many times the return on capital by government is not even 1 - 1, but negative.

And we will not have a 1930's style depression. No. This will be a long soft, recession, more reminiscent of the 1970s. The West or center of the empire is now beginning its own lost decade like Japan. Only without the benefit of huge piles of savings.

He is right. Many people in the middle class ARE losing ground. But that is because they've been overpaid in protected markets. Markets which governments can no longer protect as they become deeper and more integrated. More integrated as they become ever more exposed to global competition. That is why the Middle class are losing ground.

And Roubini's MIS-diagnosis, and MAL-prescription that we return to policies and ways of thinking from the past are a good example of why the old adage "Ivory-tower idiot" is still so apt.

Riots and Protests Everywhere - WHY?

As the title suggests, there are demos and riots happening all over the globe. And most of them share a common theme. Or rather two...

See if you see the pattern in these various exhibits:

A. Recent demo in NY against Wall Street in particular and the rich in general. Message: The rich should pay more tax. Submessage: People protesting should be getting that money.

B. British riots. We hear there is some a whiff of race and a dollop of police brutality, but the real chicken in the pot seems to be  about "class". 'About the exploitation of the working class by the owning class'.
Message: The owning class needs to 'give' to the "exploited".

C. 'Watts (L.A.) remembers 1965. As they reflect, many say the problems of poverty that fed those riots haven't been addressed or improved. There are fears of a repeat.

D. Riots in Israel continue...  They are outraged that market forces have made it too expensive for many to live in the posh, cultured areas. Message: The government should take money from somebody and give it to them - subsidize their lifestyle.

E. And in Chile. (University) Students are demanding the government make their education free.

What these all have in common:

The President of Chile summed it well when he told the students: 'You ask for free education, but someone has to pay for that.' He went on to point out that if he gave them what they were asking for, the poor would also end up paying for the relatively well-to-do students.

And that is the crux of every demo in this first list : They want some other class of people to subsidize their living.

These are the GIMME DEMOS.

Then there is another set of demos with a separate theme:

In Japan people are demonstrating against their government's secrecy about the extent of the nuclear fall out. (Interesting this is happening right after the Hiroshima and Nagasaki anniversaries...)

Then, there is the ongoing story in the Middle East.
In this latter group, the common theme is DISTRUST. In Japan they want transparency and accountability. In the Middle East they are demanding Transparency, Accountability and Equality of opportunity.

The Difference?

The demos in first group LOOK TO GOVERNMENT FOR SOLUTIONS to problems of living they can't or don't want to deal with on their own.

The second group realises, GOVERNMENT IS THE PROBLEM. And they are demanding reform.

Yes. Riots and Demos are taking place across the globe, but not all demos are created equally.

The Difference Between Israeli and Arab Protests

http://english.aljazeera.net/news/middleeast/2011/07/201173020161903849.html
Equality!
A much vaunted word. Bandied about on banners and bulletins. But take a closer look and people are often talking about VERY difference ideas.

In the various Arab countries, the fight, the laudable and noble protests almost all started over a minor grievance. Security forces reacted brutally using live ammunition on peaceful, unarmed civilians.

As a result - the protests widened their original intent to demanding the government be tossed out.

But behind, the initial and the latter, broader demands was one common element. People wanted an end to corruption and ---here it comes--- an equal opportunity under the law.

Because from one country to another people struggle with basic rights. Certain favored groups have the power and the others are left forever to live on the bottom rungs of the caste.

In Bahrain, for example, the ruling MINORITY bars the majority from many, many opportunities. And to insure loyalty, the monarchy imports security forces from Pakistan. 

Yes - this is very broad brush, but essentially all these people are saying is: Give me a fair chance. I'll study. I'll do the work. Just give me the same shot this other group has: EQUALITY of OPPORTUNITY.

BUT....
In Israel, they are taking to the streets for very different reasons. Something called: "Social Justice".

One protester summed it up well when he said:  "...We want affordable housing, health, education and welfare." Translation? We want that which we haven't earned. We demand others subsidize our lifestyle. We demand our entitlements. And here it comes: We demand EQUALITY of RESULT.

We want to share equally in what OTHERS have created!

And isn't that the whole thrust of socialist dogma? That no matter how hard or smart someone works, no matter how much value she creates - everyone should receive the same payment. The same reward. Whether she works hard or not at all.

And I might add, this is also the problem in America. Too many people have their hand out. Too many people are protesting, begging and throwing fireballs at the other team in order to get their sticky paws on loot and goods they didn't earn.

Today, like Israelis, when Americans talk of Equality, they most often have the second - the socialist, entitlement, welfare grasping - meaning in mind.

Jobless Recovery and the Slide to Socialism

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424053111904772304576468820582615858.html?mod=WSJAsia_hpp_LEFTTopStories

The great media outlets are finally waking up to something that's been apparent to thinking people for years... Recoveries no longer presage JOBS.

The sad thing is, the WSJ is starting to sound like La Liberation, (The organ of the Socialist Party of France).

The article blames the jobless recovery on companies - painting a picture of them reaping mega profits while creating "disposable workers".

But there is another side to the story: A businessman who WANTS to hire but who's decided NOT to.

Why....?

A businessman and would-be employer explained the reasons why he would NOT be hiring. And it had NOTHING to do with the qualifications of applicants or the fact that his business DID in fact need workers.

So - why the hell was he refusing to hire? Isn't this akin to some sort of business suicide?

Nope!

To summarize his article:
As a businessman I MUST be able to control costs. This is fundamental. And because the government keeps increasing the entitlements, payments, taxes, obligations and various and sundry requirements for me to hire and keep an employee,

THE GOVERNMENT MANDATED EXPENSES HAVE BECOME A BLANK CHECK I CAN NO LONGER AFFORD TO SIGN.

That's it in a nutshell. Since he can't control the ever-increasing, ever more onerous government imposed costs and obligations, the only way to achieve some level of cost-control is to CEASE hiring.

Sad, but true.

And while his business suffers from lack of qualified people on staff, ie growth is stunted. He's chosen this as the lesser evil to the voracious dragon in his office suite that threatens to devour his whole business if he just goes about hiring people when he needs them.

He ends his essay with this:  "From where I sit, the government's message is unmistakable: Creating a new job carries a punishing price."

Consider this situation multiplied millions upon millions of times and the jobless recovery suddenly makes perfect sense.

Fancy, intellectual sounding arguments are often very seductive and can easily mask the true, often simple causes of problems.

Could this man's explanation reveal the real underlying cause?

I believe so. 



His original essay is included below:
By MICHAEL P. FLEISCHER

With unemployment just under 10% and companies sitting on their cash, you would think that sooner or later job growth would take off. I think it's going to be later—much later. Here's why.

Meet Sally (not her real name; details changed to preserve privacy). Sally is a terrific employee, and she happens to be the median person in terms of base pay among the 83 people at my little company in New Jersey, where we provide audio systems for use in educational, commercial and industrial settings. She's been with us for over 15 years. She's a high school graduate with some specialized training. She makes $59,000 a year—on paper. In reality, she makes only $44,000 a year because $15,000 is taken from her thanks to various deductions and taxes, all of which form the steep, sad slope between gross and net pay.

Daniel Henninger discusses how Robert Rubin and Alan Greenspan agree that Americans should send more of their paychecks to Washington. Also, Fannie and Freddie ask for more cash within weeks of an Obama pledge to end taxpayer rescues.

Before that money hits her bank, it is reduced by the $2,376 she pays as her share of the medical and dental insurance that my company provides. And then the government takes its due. She pays $126 for state unemployment insurance, $149 for disability insurance and $856 for Medicare. That's the small stuff. New Jersey takes $1,893 in income taxes. The federal government gets $3,661 for Social Security and another $6,250 for income tax withholding. The roughly $13,000 taken from her by various government entities means that some 22% of her gross pay goes to Washington or Trenton. She's lucky she doesn't live in New York City, where the toll would be even higher.
More

Employing Sally costs plenty too. My company has to write checks for $74,000 so Sally can receive her nominal $59,000 in base pay. Health insurance is a big, added cost: While Sally pays nearly $2,400 for coverage, my company pays the rest—$9,561 for employee/spouse medical and dental. We also provide company-paid life and other insurance premiums amounting to $153. Altogether, company-paid benefits add $9,714 to the cost of employing Sally.

Then the federal and state governments want a little something extra. They take $56 for federal unemployment coverage, $149 for disability insurance, $300 for workers' comp and $505 for state unemployment insurance. Finally, the feds make me pay $856 for Sally's Medicare and $3,661 for her Social Security.

When you add it all up, it costs $74,000 to put $44,000 in Sally's pocket and to give her $12,000 in benefits. Bottom line: Governments impose a 33% surtax on Sally's job each year.

Because my company has been conscripted by the government and forced to serve as a tax collector, we have lost control of a big chunk of our cost structure. Tax increases, whether cloaked as changes in unemployment or disability insurance, Medicare increases or in any other form can dramatically alter our financial situation. With government spending and deficits growing as fast as they have been, you know that more tax increases are coming—for my company, and even for Sally too.

Companies have also been pressed into serving as providers of health insurance. In a saner world, health insurance would be something that individuals buy for themselves and their families, just as they do with auto insurance. Now, adding to the insanity, there is ObamaCare.

Every year, we negotiate a renewal to our health coverage. This year, our provider demanded a 28% increase in premiums—for a lesser plan. This is in part a tax increase that the federal government has co-opted insurance providers to collect. We had never faced an increase anywhere near this large; in each of the last two years, the increase was under 10%.

To offset tax increases and steepening rises in health-insurance premiums, my company needs sustainably higher profits and sales—something unlikely in this "summer of recovery." We can't pass the additional costs onto our customers, because the market is too tight and we'd lose sales. Only governments can raise prices repeatedly and pretend there will be no consequences.

And even if the economic outlook were more encouraging, increasing revenues is always uncertain and expensive. As much as I might want to hire new salespeople, engineers and marketing staff in an effort to grow, I would be increasing my company's vulnerability to government decisions to raise taxes, to policies that make health insurance more expensive, and to the difficulties of this economic environment.

A life in business is filled with uncertainties, but I can be quite sure that every time I hire someone my obligations to the government go up. From where I sit, the government's message is unmistakable: Creating a new job carries a punishing price.

Mr. Fleischer is president of Bogen Communications Inc. in Ramsey, N.J.

The Bali Series 5: Two-Tiered Pricing System

As I originally contemplated writing this article, I was aware I was pissed off by something and wanted to have my say, but as I typed and edited I began to see that it was something bigger. And that's why it so bothered me.

There was a famous commercial many years ago in my country that showed a first nations man in full head dress with a tear running down his cheek. The tag line was: A Mind Is A Terrible Thing To Waste.

To this day - I don't remember what the advert was for, but I think that sums up why this upsets me. And why I'm writing. We could say - Indonesia is a terrible country to waste. But I'm getting ahead of myself.

This is actually a continuation of my Thinking of Living in Bali? series, but the ideas apply to the whole of Indonesia.

So, IF you are considering living in Bali/Indonesia, there is a very annoying aspect of life here. Something that is one of the banes of this country and especially pronounced in Bali.

And just today it hit me why I detest it so much. It is the practice of charging one price to locals (a lower one) and a significantly higher price to foreigners.

And I'm going to be brutally honest. It is the foreigner visitors themselves who often instigate and encourage this practice. They look at someone working hard, charging a fair price -- by this country's standards -- for some service.

They hear the price and immediately decide THAT'S NOT ENOUGH.

So they offer more!

"Oh you poor thing. We won't let you work for that." is the well-intentioned but foolish beginning.

I've seen this too many times to recount.

Yes - by Western standards - people here work for pennies. But --- and this is the point of this pointed post --- there is a reason WHY this is so.

Have we forgotten how hard many of our grand fathers and mothers were working -  for pennies - before our countries developed?

But for a moment, let's go back to the locals and their sordid practice of maintaining a two-tiered pricing structure. And keep in mind, this has nothing to do with foreigners picking up their fair share of taxes or any other such (possibly) legitimate explanation.

It is ENVY. Many locals see the relatively rich Westerns (or should i say  people from more developed countries?) who are comparatively better off than them.

Fine. But it is what they then choose to do with that envy that is the problem.
IF they said to themselves: "Damn, look at that dude with his hot girl, cool car and great life. I wanna be like him. I'm gonna work my ass off and make a better life for myself and my family."

If they say that, I'm their biggest fan and supporter. But that is not what many say.

Instead too many say: "Look at that rich foreigner. How can I get some of her money so I can have better life?"

In this way, there is direct link between envy and greed. And NO, Gordon Gekko is WRONG. Greed is NOT good. The profit motive is good. That is what has built our world. But -

Greed is a perversion of that good and natural desire which kills the will and creativity to growth, production and development.


And ENVY and GREED are two diseases Indonesians have in cancerous proportions. Hence - a two price structure.

But, while this does temporary damage to visitors and is an constant source of irritation and injustice to foreigners who live here,

it cripples the Indonesians. 

It retards them because as this attitude has metastasized into their whole culture and AND THE REASON THEY TOLERATE their unbelievably corrupt government.

Many, (i hope not most) no longer look for ways to better themselves by hard, clever, creative work that produces a better good or service.

Instead...

They have developed a mentality of looking for ways to extort money from people who have it.  The parking mafia is another great example that I'll come to in a moment...

And I believe THIS is one of the main ubiquitous attitudes which keeps Indonesia in the Dark Ages.
Retards it, its development, its people and stunts its future.

And makes it one of the laughing stocks of Asia.

It is also why Japan has bullet trains and Indonesia still runs trains from the 1930s,

and still doesn't even have the equivalent of a national expressway system. It still piddles along with a dilapidated set of railways and local roads. 

It is still the 1950s. 

Unbelievable? Yes. True? Yes. In Indonesia there is still no express way between it's two largest cities, Jakarta and Surabaya. That's right.

You have only locals highways that are notoriously narrow, dangerous and eternally congested with bicycles, motorbikes, peddle-taxis, peddler-carts, cars, buses, lorries and construction vehicles.


Amid this cacophonous mess, you still need to stop for trafic lights in every town and berg along the way.

Nor does it have a modern rail system.

Consider this:

Nozomi class bullet trains cover the distance from Tokyo to Osaka (about 550 kilometers) in 2 1/2 hours. If Indonesia had bullet trains, one could travel from Jakarta to Surabaya (796 km) in 3 hours 40 minutes.... And from Jakarta to Denpasar (1206 km) in 5 1/2 hours.


BUT...

the reality today is that from Jakarta to Denpasar (Bali) would take at least a day -- [by car or train] and likely longer with chronically common delays.

But that's not all:
In Indonesia, there is a common site on the streets you won't see in most other countries - parking men. These are men who stand in front of some shop or restaurant and literally help squeeze you into a parking space.

Because many streets are narrow, and the parking areas narrow as well, these men often serve the valuable function of helping people into the narrowest of spaces, then directing traffic to help them safely re enter the flow when they leave.

They often even ask you to leave you car in neutral so they can push it forward or backward to make room for another car to pass into or out of  the parking area. And for this, they collect a fee from each car.

Fair enough.

BUT, there are also many occasions --- and this is why i call them the Parking Mafia ---  when they perform no work, no function. Keep in mind, these are places that would be FREE parking in developed countries.

They simply collect a fee from you for ENTERING THEIR ZONE.  They merely sit like a security guard and collect your money. But they provide no security.

The money they collect doesn't go beautify the city, plant trees, build roads, rails, hospitals, schools or feed the poor.

It goes in these mens pockets. And many of these men make hundreds and even thousands of dollars per month in a country where most people still live on a few dollars a day.

The system is tolerated because when someone refuses to pay, the parking mafia are known to retaliate: Things like keying your car.... or worse. 

This is EXTORTION. 

So, when Indonesians, especially the Balinese give up this self-defeating bid to extort money from the productive in order to subsidize their laziness. ..

When they give up and this weak, pathetic behavior and decide to start building their country by providing better goods and services in their businesses, THEN AND ONLY THEN

will they have the balls to begin

DEMANDING better government from their third-world idiot stand-ins for leaders. And they will have turned a corner and pushed the button on the Indonesian Renaissance.

Because... they will never eliminate corruption in their government until they give it up amongst themselves and against foreigners.

When they do, they will have high speed rail, a modern expressway system and streets that don't flood up to your waist every time it rains. In short - a modern country with quality services and infrastructure.

And they will be richer. Maybe richer than the people now visiting Indonesia...

I wonder how much longer they will slovenly accept the status quo? How long they will persist in their greed?
How long until they give up their pathetic attempts to get something for nothing?


Because until they do - they don't deserve better. And until they do - they will remain poor and retarded.

Until they do...

They will continue to live narrow, short, darkened lives --- as they deserve.

I wonder: Is that Karma?

Indonesia Scraps Medieval Treatment of Women

They have talked about it forever. And finally written this into law - nearly 20 years after Singapore. 

Of what do I speak?

The wretched law that says a foreign man married to an Indonesian woman must have a work visa in order to live and work in Indonesia!

A truly antiquated, backward, bigoted - and ultimately self-defeating law which inevitably results in many of the best and brightest women taking their brains, money and talents OUT of Indonesia.

That's about to change!

As soon as this becomes law, Indonesia will join the great majority of countries where marriage affords one the right to live and work freely and unhindered.


The key points of the New Law are as follows:

· If you marry an Indonesian citizen here, you will be entitled to Izin Tinggal Terbatas. After 2 years, you can convert it to Izin Tinggal Tetap (ITAP).

· If you have already been legally married for at least two years to an Indonesian citizen, you get an ITAP immediately. E.g. if you marry your Indonesian spouse in Australia and stay there for 2 years before coming to live in Indonesia, you are entitled to an ITAP immediately.

· If you have an ITAP because you are married to an Indonesian, you can work here without needing a work permit.

· If your children choose to keep their foreign nationality once they reach the age of 18, they are entitled to an ITAP and can work here.

· If your children were over 18 when the citizenship law was passed and never had Indonesian nationality, they are now entitled to an ITAP and can work.

· Foreigners who are legally married to Indonesians no longer need a `penjamin' (sponsor).

· The ITAP is valid for an unlimited period but needs to be renewed administratively every 5 years. There is no cost for this.

· If you already have an ITAP and your Indonesian spouse dies, you keep the ITAP.

· If you have an ITAP and you and your Indonesian spouse divorce before you have been married for 10 years, the ITAP is cancelled.

· If you have an ITAP and you and your Indonesian spouse divorce when you have been married for 10 years or more, you keep the ITAP.

Unfortunately we still have to have the re-entry permit. If you have an ITAP, you will be able to get, as now, a multiple re-entry permit that is valid for 2 years.

Now that the bill has been approved by the DPR it will go to SetNeg and then be signed by the President. However, it will take some time before the implementing regulations are drawn up and this law becomes effective.

Source : Milis APAB.

Just Point To Make Real Things Tell You Their Story...

"The future is already here - it's just not very evenly distributed." --William Gibson

Science fiction has postulated and imagined what "augmented reality" would be like. Well - wonder no more: It's here...

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704739504576067780550250202.html?mod=WSJ_Tech_Below_Video

So what is it? And what does it mean to you and me?

Everything-

Let's jump straight to the end of the article and the most immediately profitable application. Because like any new technology, there is always the need to find a viable way to make money.

Otherwise - development just doesn't happen.

MEDICINE: Specifically remote monitoring.
Imagine you have a slightly sick relative who --in a perfect world-- would have around the clock home care or professional nursing staff at beck and call.

But due to strained budgets due to high labour costs, reality often dictates finding less costly solutions.

Until now - about the only option was to "leave em to their own devices" and hope for the best. Soon - you will be able to remotely monitor almost anything. Right on your mobile phone.

Whether they're upright? Heart rate? Asthma? etc... You name it - it can be monitored and you can be alerted if anything falls out of its normal range.

And that's not all. Even if you're healthy - apps could let you get a virtual check up with your mobile. Soon, we will enter the era of mobile/remote medicine. It won't totally eliminate the need to go to the hospital - just most of it.  

Wouldn't you pay for that? I know i would.

But there are also sexier and juicier applications: Games are another avenue for development. And yet, it is other applications which promise to change our lives much more profoundly - and faster:

REAL ESTATE
Imagine being able to point your phone at a building and know who has property for rent or sale, for how much and who to contact? How about a virtual tour? A floor plan?

Have your own home and furniture's photos loaded? Hmmm... Wanna see how your stuff would look in that house or apartment?

I'd pay for that. How bout you?

SHOPPING
Or when you go shopping: There was recently a trial by Tissot Watches in London. Using Augmented Reality, customers were able to try on watches --virturally-- without entering the shop and enduring the high pressure sales...

Guess what - sales shot up 83%.

Oh, and sales probably shot up, because people could find the RIGHT watch so much faster and with less hassle... 

EDUCATION
The possibilities are endless and mind boggling.
Welcome to the era of virtual teachers. One-on-One interaction. Customized education to fit your pace, learning style, dominant intelligence and idiosyncratic strengths and weaknesses.

If Einsteins brain was apparently noted for its rich connections, in future this will not be uncommon anymore. 

Truly accelerated learning. That is fun and relevant.

The emphasis on memorization will fade into oblivion to be replaced by students producing results. Real world results.

And out of this, I see a revolutionary new model of education emerging which turns the current dead factory  era method on its head. And oh - it can't come soon enough....

I see this technology as so fundamentally becoming a part of our lives that in 10 years we will wonder how we ever lived with out it. Kinda like the internet and mobile phones have become today.

Because as i read about this, I am simultaneously pulled in two directions at once: On the one hand, I can only begin to imagine the impact such technologies as this will have on our lives.

How it will change the way we do business, live and play...?

But I also wonder, with the rapidity and ubiquity of change technology is bringing in its tsunami - How will I explain to the younglings in 10 years how we used to live Pre-Mobile phone or Pre-Internet....??

It will seem to them as distant and faded as it is for me to watch jerky black and white film clips of the early 1900s: WWI, the fall of empires and the Roaring 20's....

A time when most people lived on farms, not cities, electricity and phones were still not common for most. Ditto running water and indoor toilets.

What a difference a hundred years makes!

The Government of Kansas City is Lucid - For Now...

This is what happens when taxes are DRASTICALLY reduced --> Prosperity: A backwater becomes a teaming metropolis - alive.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704530204576235163052635494.html?mod=WSJASIA_newsreel_technology

In a nutshell, the article says that Kansas City Kansas, the poor dismal brother to Kansas City, Missouri began experiencing a dramatic turnaround in its fortunes a few years ago when it decided to --- GASP --- offer tax incentives.

And now - as a further sign of its progress - the mighty Google has decided to bestow upon it the fastest internet in the country.

But while this is a good thing, one must keep the bigger picture in mind. Lowering taxes is merely government's way of belatedly and usually begrudgingly admitting that business pays all taxes and creates all prosperity.

An admission that governments usually only make in desperation as they acknowledge that without business, they (the government) will eventually cease to exist. Plain and simple.

Yet - history continues to demonstrate that as soon as governments get a taste of the prosperity companies create, they almost always begin killing the golden goose with their greed for higher taxes, corruption and utter bankruptcy of competence due to their lack of even the most fundamental understanding of economics.

And the cycle will continue, my friends....  Until one fine day, the citizens which have been milked like cows will use their intelligence to sprout metaphorical wings and fly away never to return. Then what will be the fate of parasitical governments?

Kidnapping: The New Tax Collection Technic

How long till the practice of government kidnapping and torture morphs into something that could make any one of us a target?  

http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0804522/
In the 2007 movie, Rendition is kidnapping and torture, by --who else?-- in order to extract information from a suspected "terrorist". Of course, the whole point of the movie is that the guy they kidnapped had NO political inclinations, ideas and probably no interest in anybody's politics.

Just a guy trying to make a dollar and live his life. Until...

And then of course the story becomes all-too-familiar: Innocent, unsuspecting guy then DEVELOPS ideas and political aspirations as a result of the welcome and hospitality he endured at the hands of his torturers.

So what's the point of all this?


With all the hooopla about tax havens being blacklisted, governments around the world simultaneously running out of money AND getting  more desperate to follow so-called "tax-cheats", it's not much of a logical leap to see the day when "terrorism" will be replaced by "catching tax-cheats" or whatever demonized moniker is invented.


Because with the greater mobility of money and with the impoverished governments of the world becoming ever more grasping and rapacious, we may begin to see governments using tried and tested methods from one field in another. And I mean  --- why not? From their perspective, it's just an economical use of resources.

Or rather, once the "terrorism" era is over (or at least on the wane), those agencies and people who've developed those competencies will not just lie down and die.

No. As always, they will morph into something else. It's the survival instinct. They will find another mission --- so to speak.

And what will that new mission be?

Well, if they thought they were doing God and Country service "protecting it from terrorists", how much more fanatical and bloody can they become if a new group of people is identified as those who would single-handedly destroy the fabric of society and bring civilization to ruin?

Enter the so called "tax-cheat". And remember, just as the definitions of "terrorist" are fuzzy and shifting, those for tax-cheats will likely be even more vague. So vague and shifting as to ensnare anyone.


Consider: What's to stop some arrogant government with the power to actually carry it out, and one which has actually shown it is immune to any moral limitations in the past --- to freely violate anyone's rights, debase and besmear any creed --- if it serves their current agenda  -- their survival?


IF they can convince themselves there's a threat --- a threat to their very survival. And of course, their survival is the ultimate law unto itself.  What will stop them?


I mean, why not turn the whole apparatus used to combat one brand of perceived threat to neutralize another?


It's simple. People could be snatched off the streets of almost anywhere in the world and held and tortured ..... until some alleged tax-bill is paid?


Or until the names of banks or the whereabouts of other hitherto unknown assets to come to light, "so they can be properly assessed and rightfully taxed"


How long? And where will it begin?


I can assure you, it will begin with someone gray. That is, someone high enough profile, but maybe not especially well-liked. One who has enemies.

And Assets!

But which do not directly benefit the country in question. Gray also meaning someone who may not always "pay his fair share". He or she will be someone who is very astute and aggressive in paying the absolute minimum tax. She will likely use every know tax "loophole" known.

In other words, he or she will play the game with the tax collector, and with superior intelligence and diligence BEAT the tax-man at his own game.


Yes. Someone who will be easy to point the finger at. And when the political temperature is right --- when enough of the tax consumers feel their government OWES them and they're NOT getting their due ... and  government can cleverly point the finger at the "Tax-Cheats" ---then the practice will begin.

I see that day not far away...

But just as taxes started out only for the rich, rendition too, will trickle down. Until... it makes its way to a neighborhood near you --- maybe yours.

How Many Times Have You Received An Email Like This?

I buy things over the internet. Lots of us do. Natural - right?

And sometimes we also no longer want something or we realise we're paying for something we're no longer using. Our needs change or whatever. So we cancel. And that's when we get emails like the following.

I hate them. Do you?


Email From A Corporate Giant Responding To My Cancellation Request.
I've deleted personal info to protect the privacy of the guilty and myself. 

From: "tickets@.com"
To: @yahoo.com
Sent: Friday, 18 February 2011 22:56:58
Subject: Update to Ticket ID: LGB-14745726

Hello ,

Thank you for contacting .com with your request. I noticed that you have been a valued member of the .com family for several months now and wanted to see if there were any outstanding issues on your account that I may be able to assist you with. Would you mind elaborating on exactly what problems you were experiencing on the account? I would be more than happy to assist you in any way that I can to fix any unresolved issues.

Please give me a call back at 866-XXX-2867, extension 1012 at your convenience (when the phone greeting comes on, just input "1012" and it'll transfer you right away). Or you can reply to this email.

I look forward to your reply and assisting you further with your account.

Have a great day!

Sincerely,

Steven G..com LLC
http://support..com/
Available 24 hours a day at 1-866-XX-XXXXX


I'm sure i'm not the only one who's ever gotten an email like that. How did you feel?
Well, I can tell you how i felt. Because...

Here's the letter I WANTED TO SEND and the letter I WISH EVERY CORPORATE MANAGER WERE FORCED TO READ.

"Hello Steven G.,

I really am not sure how to respond to this email as i was expecting a confirmation of cancellation.

Because - while your emails sounds friendly and helpful, i get the feeling you're refusing to process my cancellation until i call you and explain my 'reason'.

Is that correct?

Or do i have it wrong?
If so, I am really disappointed.

Yes. I know you're just doing your job trying to keep a customer, but by putting this extra step between me and cancellation, you are effectively trying to block my way as i attempt to leave the building.

And that is insulting. Your managers who put you up to this should realise there is segment of the population that highly resents that. And I am among them.

Because --- by trying to frustrate and delay my leaving, you are actually achieving the very opposite of what your managers intended.

You see, i  already shared my (embarrassing) reason with some some sort of customer response thingee yesterday. Apparently you didn't receive that. And in that I gave xxxxx a glowing recommendation. And Yesterday HAD EVERY INTENTION OF LATER RETURNING.

But now...

Your email is single-handedly making me determined to never do business with you again and to share with every body I know just how hard it is to leave xxxxxx....

You see --- Your corporate wizards mistake is in NOT offering me the express cancellation ALONG with the option to talk to someone about my issue. Offer choices. Customers love choice.

In their infinite wisdom they've decided that most people can be, bullied and intimidated into staying put ---either through the unpleasantness of having to make that phone call and explain themselves like 5 year old child or because the company really can diagnose the issue, solve the problem and save the day.

But they forget that there is a sizable portion of the population that is roundly insulted and incensed by such treatment. And it has the very opposite effect to the intended one.

And since you all seem to need the simplest things repeated again and again, let me spell it out once again for your hard-headed moronically ignorant managers:

By placing the talk-it-out session between me and canceling you have effectively stood in my way as i try to get off the ride. You are trying to get me to pony up and stay on the ride indefinitely.


I resent that. And it will be front and center next time i want to do business with a company like yours... I will remember this little bit of unpleasantness and patronisation and will roundly avoid you."

End of email I WANTED TO SEND*******

BUT i know it is human nature.

Actually the managers have made a very astute decision. They know that such tactics actually WORK and work very well on large segments of the population. They have ----from a profit standpoint---- wisely calculated that pissing people like me off doesn't really matter. There are enough sheep to keep their pockets full of green.

Imagine if someone did that to you in public place...

Stopped you and asked you why you were leaving, then told you that you'd have to go explain yourself to so and so.....before you would be allowed to leave.

What would you do?

Yep. You'd probably try to humor them and be diplomatic in the beginning. But then imagine this happened in every shop. Almost Every time.
In the beginning you might say something like : "Hey pal, it was a blast, but I've had enough."

But eventually, your patience may just run out.

And the next time, you might just push the guy out of the way. And if he still persisted, you might call for help or bust him in the chops.

Knowing that : Here's the email I DID send:

"Hello Steven G.,

I really am not sure how to respond to this email as i was expecting a confirmation of cancellation.

Because - while your emails sounds friendly and helpful, i get the feeling you're refusing to process my cancellation until i call you and explain my 'reason'.

Is that correct?

Me"

End of Real Email *********

And if I don't receive the appropriate confirmation of cancellation within a half day, I will stop payment at the funding source.

The Next Wave in PCs is Here

I've been talking with my partner about this for some time - discussing what pcs, laptops or whatever you want to call them will look like in the years to come.

Well --- sometimes the future hits your right between the eyes sooner than you thought --- it's here. Albeit in a VERY primitive form.

First the link:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703373404576148190633168766.html?mod=WSJASIA_hpp_MIDDLEFourthNews

Here's the story in a nutshell: Motorola has come up with a smart phone slash pc. It's a pc or rather the brains of a pc in a handheld phone.

So how do you use it? 

You can use it as a stand alone or plug it into what's called a dock. That is a brainless pc. A pc without any of the stuff that usually makes it a pc. It's just a keyboard with a screen. It has no CPU. No memory... Zilch.

But - plug in the smart phone/pc and the thing comes alive.

Here's the catch. As is always true with any new technology, it is primitive and clumsy at first. Remember the first calculators? The first modems, browsers or search engines?

Translation: It can do some things, but not all that a regular laptop or pc could do. And what is does do, it doesn't do as well, as fast or as efficiently as the real deal.

BUT and this is the big but. It points to the shape of things to come. You see, as memory and processing capacity continue to grow by leaps and bounds, my partner and i have discussed many times that eventually,  everything would likely devolve into the phone.

Your TV, computer, music station, phone, internet etc. etc... would all eventually be scrunched into the size of a phone. Problem is : While we humans find those size gadgets handy to carry around, we don't feel the same way when it come to using them. Such mundane things such as typing become a real bitch on something that small. Especially when you have elephant fingers like me. 

So - imagine this scene. In a few short years, everybody carries her own pc/phone all-in-one work/play/communication device in her pocket or purse. She arrives at the office. The pc on her desk is a dummy. A box without a brain like the scarecrow in the Wizard of Oz. She sits down docks her pc, and off to work she goes...

Or she finds herself in an airport. No pcs. Just dummies to dock into... You get the picture.
And on the run - she has the same functionality, albeit on that annoyingly small screen.

BUT what comes next?

What happens when everybody tires of those damn brainless boxes that either have to be carried around (just like laptops today), or the idiot boxes on their desks.

What happens when people get used to having the world at their fingertips and now want that same desktop experience without the box?

That's when something really interesting could be in store: Ever seen a hologram? You know - one of those things at the museum. It's just a projection - in thin air. You see an image, and as you move, the image seems to move or change too.

Hmmmmm.... What if something like that could be perfected to create that all-elusive keyboard and monitor for your smart pc/phone?

Imagine it: You hit a button or activate a voice command for Hologram, or whatever trade name it's called by. It deploys. You see a purple (that's what i imagine anyway..) mini-genie-like apparition. It's a keyboard that can be displayed on any flat surface in front of you and a screen that projects into the air in front of you.

But here's the best part:

With such a technology, by adjusting the angles from which it is visible, you can make the keyboard ---and hence every keystroke--- 100% private. Only you could see it because it would be uniquely adjusted for the angle of your eyes only. Same with the monitor.

You could be in the middle of the most crowded airport, office, maglev train or hotel --- and with the appropriate encryption--- having an absolutely private session.

Ready to leave? Turn off hologram and put it away or continue in hand held mode...

Why Europe Will End In Ignonimous Failure And The Deusche Mark Will Return

Where do I start?
Europe is such a mess? Where do you begin trying to unravel it?

Many countries, especially many Americans  laughed in derision as the Europeans espoused their lofty plans to create a pan-european society to rival America. Even many IN Europe didn't believe it.

I'm glad America has a little competition. That keeps everybody healthier and more fit. But - Europe will end in shame and defeat, returning to their various local currencies. Here's why...

But first - let's take a little walk down memory lane...

It all started with the Treaty of Rome and the creation of the European Economic Community, EEC.  Then,
little by little through various baby-steps like the European Exchange Rate Mechanism, Europe embarked on its grand journey. Still the neysayers sneered. Even many in Europe continued to doubt.

Fast-forward to 1999. The grand new currency was created and christened - EURO. YAhooooo. Yippee...? Nope. Actually the people of the world and the markets in particular fairly yawned. The Euro quickly went from 1.17US to 80 US cents. An embarrassing start to say the least.

Then in 2002, when the paper was actually issued the currency finally began to get some respect. In fact, due to America's own self-inflicted problems, the Euro embarked on a nearly 10 year long rise. First back over parity. Then to its starting price - 1.17 and it didn't look back until the 1.60s.

You could almost hear them shouting: "Who's the man now, America? There's a new kid on the block." But they just didn't realise what a flash-in-the-pan they would be. How this plan would end like every other attempt to unite Europe since the fall of Rome.

And that is the root of the problem. Europe's troubled past... And more to the point, how that hampers and distorts their ability to perceive and deal with present realities that dooms them.

What we're seeing now is only the beginning of troubles.


Like Oil and Water...

1. You can't mix oil and water. You can't put the A-student with the D-student and hope the D student will improve. Experience has shown us again and again - The superior student will only be weakened by the poor student.

Think about it. In the Euro, they have pretended they could blend Spaniards with Dutch? Italians with Germans? Greeks with Danes? Are you kidding me!?

The North of Europe and the South are like Day and Night.
The Northerners know how to work, but not how to live.
The Southerners know how to live, but not how to work.

So - you've always had a divided continent. At door number 1, you have the stolid, boring, bland BUT hard, hard working northern countries. They are frugal. Savers. Careful. Planners and Builders. And they have world-class economies to show for it.

At door number 2, you have the Southerners. They are too busy enjoying life, Eating, Drinking, Feeling, Creating, Snoozing to be too bothered with ever doing anything too hard or taxing. Work --- Oh they do it when they have to. Then stop.

And as a result their lifestyle has been, and still is the envy of the world. They export their food and luxuries to the ends of the earth.

Their mentality has often been described as 'Manana', or Tomorrow. The put everything off - except FUN.

Work hard? Save money? Why should we?

'Live today, for tomorrow we die.'

These two will not blend without hard, severe, dirty, political union - Ever.

Then there is the reality conundrum...

2. The Europeans want to become a great power again, but without paying the price. Without getting their hands dirty. Without having to sully themselves with all the ugliness and nastiness that goes along with gaining and maintaining power.

Being one of the big boys is not for nice guys. And frankly, the Euros are just too nice. 

They don't want to have to give up their sovereignty. They don't want to have a large, expensive military. They don't want wars.

And I understand. After the devastation in two world wars, they are understandably loathe to go to war. The problem is - if you're unwilling to fight, others WILL take advantage of you. It's called Human Nature.

No changin that.


So - they've tried to just have the currency. Have their proverbial cake and eat it too. Have the benefits that a common currency will bestow while still remaining independent.

Well, the charade has gone on for about 10 years and they are just now discovering what the Americans knew all along. Without political union, and without a military that has real teeth, and a general in command willing to bite, currency union is a joke that will never work long term.

A quick look at others who've contemplated world power will serve to illustrate why the Euros lack of grasp on reality and why the will never succeed.

Others Contestants in The Great Power Game

The Japanese had a chance to take the reigns of power - at least as a serious contender for title of Master of Asia. They declined.
Like a man or woman nominated for high office who refuses to run.

They were very clear. 'We don't want to make the sacrifices to become a world power. No. We like our little island. We are stuck in our ways. We don't want to have too much to do with foreigners. We like things the way they are. Thank you very much.'

They didn't have the stomach or balls for the dirty business. And that's OK.

China, on the other hand, IS hell-bent on becoming a great power. And they ARE willing to pay the price.
Their people have their nose to the grind-stones. Working hard hard hard. And saving upwards of 40% of their pay.

They are pursuing peace with all the countries surrounding them. Not out of any love for peace or any altruistic urge. No. It is about settling any ongoing disputes so they can focus ALL their energies on building their empire. They know they're not strong enough YET.

They are using their growing economic clout to build and bully their way to sustainable sources of energy to power their ever growing machine. They're on a military build-up of massive proportions. They have an active and ambitious space program.

They will succeed. They are willing to pay the price and do whatever it takes. No matter how hard or dirty. Or how long it takes.

In fact, they are very happy if America and Europe spend themselves into bankruptcy. 'Can we help you go broke faster sir...' Because they're waiting, building, biding their time. Waiting for the moment when they can start their world empire by taking over the shipping lanes of Asia.

That's the difference.

That's the hard truth the Chinese get. Americans too.

On the other hand, the Euros think they can create another model. A more humane, more noble model. Hence their International Criminal Court among other projects. They think they can find a way to become a great power without the dirty, nasty hard, long slog. But -

BECAUSE THEY DENY HUMAN NATURE the Euros will fail and once again become a cold, lonely forgotten corner of the world --- that once was great. But failed because they lost sight of reality.

The Japanese : From One Idiot to Another

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703779704576074661995527474.html

Don't get me wrong. I ADMIRE the Japanese for MANY reasons. I lived there. And I have a deep affinity for the people and culture.

BUT as Clint Eastwood in the final scene of the movie Magnum Force, says: "A man's got to know his limitations" before walking away.

Well, the Japanese Finance Minister Yoshihiko Noda should have done the same. He should have kept his mouth shut and walked away.

Instead - now they are committed to buying a bunch of Triple-A rated Junk securities from Europe.

I mean, how much is the rating worth when we know most of Europe is bankrupt? Really!?

And that's not even mentioning the exchange loss they are likely to see.
Because if my prediction is even anywhere close to the mark (See Predictions for 2011.), and the Euro is fetching something near 1 dollar at the end of the year...

The Japanese will take at least a 25% haircut...  Great Job Guys!

It's this lack of grand, strategic ability and the lack of balls to stand on the world stage is the reason the Japanese never became a world power.

China on the other hand has the balls, the brains, the brawn and the sheer will and do-anything mentality.
They are rapidly pushing their way to the front of the world power pack....

Not so the Japanese. They should stick to making cars and electronics... Stuff they're good at.

Do You Have These Common Misunderstandings of Forgiveness, Honesty and Judgement?

Today, I'm going to take a little detour into an area i usually don't talk about. Philosophy which borders on religion.
I do this for one reason. I believe there is a lot of misunderstanding about certain terms that leads to a lot of Madness. Here's how:

In the West - especially in the US, with its Judeo-Christian cultural foundation - there is often a skewed understanding of  Honesty, Forgiveness and Judgement. Ideas which are very counterproductive, even destructive.

Let's start with Honesty since it's the easiest one to deal with.
Everyone knows that every major religion on earth has prohibitions against dishonesty. It is universal. Of course the most famous being the 10 Commandments in the Jewish Torah (the Old Testament for Christians).

Then of course, in America, Honesty has been enshrined in law and made famous by the court-room dramas where the witness takes the oath to: "Tell the truth, the whole truth and nothing but the truth..."

And it is not just the classics. There have been a number of blockbuster movies in the last 10 years whose subject has been honesty. I can think of a couple of comedies in particular. And in each case, the MORAL of the story is that we should bear-it-all. Tell all. Keep nothing inside. Have Naked souls.

Nothing could be further from the truth.
First of all, Honesty is not an absolute. And Honesty DOES not mean sharing all.
Not an absolute?
Yep.
This is a classic example, but it illustrates well the point. Imagine you are living in a country that is Not free. (Or if you are, this will instantly ring a bell as you read...)  Also, let's imagine you belong to a minority group which is being persecuted.

And - please - I don't want to hear anyone tell me this is an unreasonable example. There are too many such groups in different places --now and historically-- to count.
You really don't have look far to find racial, ethnic, religious and political persecution -- even genocide.

But just to keep our example straightforward, imagine you are a member of that persecuted group. Imagine also that the ruling group has decided your group needs to be exterminated and that now they are conducting house-to-house searches.

Further, imagine, that due to some genetic anomaly, you don't look like the persecuted group. A soldier knocks at the door and asks if there are any your people in the house or who live there?

What do you say?
Do you tell all? Spill your guts? Tell the truth, the whole truth and nothing but the truth, so help you God, knowing it will mean the certain death and dismemberment of you and your extended family?

Of course not. And if you are religious will that lie send you to dark and firey place?

In most ethical systems, there is something known as a Hierarchy of Values. That is a fancy way of saying some values trump others. Or to put it another way, whenever two values come into conflict, you can AND MUST break the one lower on the totem pole and keep the one higher up.

In the case above, you are not telling a lie for personal gain, convenience or fraud. You are not trying to get something that is not yours or keep something you've stolen. No.

You're trying to preserve life. And that value stands at the very top of the heap.
The exhortation to tell the truth is to keep us from gaining unfair advantage. The requirement is null and void when someone is trying to take your life or property.

Consider this very common practice: You leave home. But you leave some of the lights on or ask a neighbor to take your mail inside for you. You may even invest in a system that will turn the lights on at a certain hour every day and off in the daytime. WHY?

You want any would be thief to THINK someone is home. In essence, your intent is to deceive him. Are you wrong? Should you announce to the world that no one is home?

Or, if at work there is a certain someone, [you know who i'm talking about] who is just a little too interested, a tad too friendly, just a smidgin too concerned about you, you can be almost assured they are up to no good.

Do you owe it to them to let it all hang out?

OK... Nuff said.


Then there is Forgiveness. A sticky mess of matted honey it is... Again - because of the influence of religion, it is generally accepted that if someone wrongs you, the high-minded, the noble, the right thing to do is to 'Forgive' him or her. Let it go. Wash it away. Don't dwell on it. Accept that person fully, and forget. 'Forgive and Forget.'

Like Honesty, Forgiveness has its cultural roots in a misguided and erroneous interpretation of the term.

It is said, and I believe it is true based on my own research into the 3 desert religions (Judaism, Christianity and Islam), that Christianity and Islam each got part of the equation. But each is unbalanced.

Here's what I mean: Judaism puts great emphasis on the BALANCE of Justice and Mercy. They believe you cannot have One without the other.
That is Justice without mercy is not justice.
(Think of the a system where the criminal regularly escapes because the system is lenient and forgiving...)
And that
There is no Mercy (or Love) without Justice.
I'll let you think of your own examples...

Islam has taken and emphasises Justice at all costs. That is why we hear of Muslim countries sometimes cutting off the hands of a thief. Or someone being stoned in a public square. There are still public hangings in a place in Riyadh affectionately called 'Chop-Chop-Square'.

Christianity on the other hand --- has gone the other way --- emphasising Mercy to the exclusion of Justice.
(Again - just look at certain legal systems...)

Unfortunately, this is the root of the cultural bias and unbalanced idea about Forgiveness...


Because while all of that advice is good and sound, it masks a deeper cultural expectation. Down the rabbit hole we go....

Let's imagine someone wrongs me. Forgive. OK. Done. I'm not expecting anything in return. Not even an apology, certainly not any form of restitution. So - I've forgiven. Or have I?

Because the unwritten, unspoken, but universally understood implication of the infamous "Forgive and Forget" is that now I should PRETEND the incident never happened.
According to the cultural misconception, I should now roll back the clock in my mind and act like nothing ever happened.

OK. Hmmmm.
Let's say I lent someone my car. They get into an accident.
Wanting to be a good citizen and friend (or relative or whatever) I say --- "No sweat. I forgive you. I'll take care of everything."
So far so good - right?

But what do I do when that same person wants to borrow my car again?

This is where this cultural rubber of this lunacy meets the road of reality and light.

So what to do?

If I've forgiven and forgotten, am I now obliged to AGAIN loan my car? Because that is the logical fallacy many people struggle with. And...

What if it's much more dire? What if it could put you or your family's life in danger?

This is where I depart from the teachings or interpretations of some cultures and religions. I say. I can forgive, but
if I loan my car to that person again, I am a fool. If I put myself or my family in that same car with him, I deserve whatever happens and more.

Just like telling the truth doesn't not mean telling all to anybody who asks irrespective of their
motives or intent, I have no obligation to allow someone to repeat the same vile, irresponsible, destructive act again and again. That is madness and irresponsibility to myself and those I love.

Even if I believe the offender has materially changed and matured since that first unfortunate incident, it is still my judgement whether I want to take that risk again.


And if there is NO evidence at all indicating any change on the part of the offender, and IF I choose to loan him the car, again, I am the fool.

And that brings us to thorny ole Judgement. Oh what a nasty, four letter word it has become. 'How dare you judge me'! and its derivitives are so commonly heard, you have to ask yourself what they mean? And do they even make sense?

This one is simple and easy. This is really a cry for open-mindedness. A grand, noble and wonderful thing.

But ---and this is the problem--- like so many good things it has been taken to an extreme which makes it ridiculous. To judge is simply to evaluate. Something we do every hour of every day. It is the act of weighing options, assessing dangers and opportunities, and then making decisions. It is the basis of thinking and it is necessary for survival.

So - for someone to say we shouldn't judge is a little silly. What they should say is - we shouldn't PRE-judge. But all judgement is not bad.
Witness the incident above.
If someone else damages your car, you are now making a judgement based on experience. Or to make this just a bit juicier: (And unfortunately this happens everyday - somewhere...)

What if a family member comes to pick you up in the car, but you realise they've been drinking. Do you get in? Do you tell your kids to get in...??
That is judgement. Sweet and wonderful.

In essence we could say you are POST-judging, basing your decision on sound past experience and present evidence (or lack there of) of any change.... And that is an EXCELLENT and essential thing to do if we are to survive another day to live and love. 

So - I encourage anyone out there: Don't be cowered or intimidated by these cultural blind spots and bits of lunacy. Well meaning or not, they are destructive if followed. I hope you will trust and stand up for yourself.

I don't owe anyone my life story, or the insanity of being a fool in order to appear agreeable. You don't either.

Predictions For 2011...

Every year i find myself reading some newspaper or magazine's predictions for the coming year. And every year i sit there shaking my head in disbelief. I just can't believe how naive, bland and tasteless --- not to mention WRONG -- most predictions are. They only see in straight lines.

But that's just not how life, events and history play out. They take twists and turns and unexpected plunges. Totally new players emerge from left field to take center stage... and things we never imagined - HAPPEN.


The Economist, for example, admitted that it got nearly ALL its predictions for 2010 WRONG.
So what do they and many other publications do?

Yep. With a track record of utter failure, they invite us to read their predictions -- Yet AGAIN.


That i just don't get.

So this year, instead of sitting there in June or August and saying to my partner: "I told you such and such would happen", I've decided to go on record. Lay my predictions out and see how accurate I was in 12 months.

So, while some of my predictions will be extrapolations of trends already underway  --straight lines-- others will attempt to anticipate the unexpected. As such, there is an inevitable degree of risk in making such predictions. But then that comes with the territory.

And even if they're totally off the mark - they won't be any worse than the others.....

Here goes: 

1. Apple WARS: The Empire of Competitors Strike Back
Apple has been in an enviable position for several years with very little real competition. That is about to change. And with some interesting consequences. I predict that the same thing that happened with the personal computer back in the 80s and 90s will happen again. History will repeat itself.

For those of us old enough to remember - Apple single-handedly invented the pc - the original Mac. BUT, then as now - they tried to keep everything locked tight inside the Apple Kingdom. Although their machines were light years ahead of anything else, they were not FLEXIBLE or ADAPTABLE.

Then, as now, Steve Jobs kept iron-fisted control. And of course Apple's products were sold at a premium.
Then came Microsoft. That dorky nerd company with the whiny-sounding boss.
But Billy-boy understood something about human nature and marketing that Jobs in all his technical brilliance was blind too.
People want LOWER prices and more FLEXIBILITY. They don't want somebody telling them their product can only be used in a certain way. Even if it means a less sophisticated, harder to use product.

Billy-boy gave businesses, then the mass markets what they wanted. Not unlike the Video wars between Sony and Matsushita in the 80s. Remember the Betamax from Sony? It was technically better - had a much crisper, better quality picture. BUT
The VHS - which was a vastly inferior product from Mastushita was better. Better because they understood what people would want to USE the video for. To watch movies. Sony's Betamax was only 60 minutes in the beginning. The VHS two hours. Guess which one triumphed?

Matstushita, like Microsoft, made a vastly inferior product, but which answered the needs, what people really wanted. Sony just didn't get what people would use their products for.

Microsoft, similarly got its hands on several disparate programs from other companies and created its first integrated Office product. 

Today MANY people are complaining about the Ipad's lack of Flash, locked Iphones and poor reception etc...  It is only a matter of time before some one sees the possibilities in Apples products and history repeats.

Expect to see the humbling of Apple begin this year as the competition's products begin hitting the markets. In fact - Samsung already has its own Ipad ready to launch in Korea in March and in summer worldwide...



2. Gold : What Goes UP, Must Come Down, down, down...
Gold has been in a bull market for nearly 10 years. Up 30% just this year -- at over 1400US per ounce. It is so way over-priced, it is in bubble territory. Now would be an excellent time to take profits on any gold one has.

Because I see it falling back initially to the 1150s, then at some point to see it's low for the year in the 700s. And by year-end, it should have recovered back to the 900 range.


3.. Europe: Storm Clouds Continue To Gather and Darken.
We've seen Iceland implode. Then Greece need and get a rescue package. Next Ireland. And now Spain and Portugal are teetering on the brink of default... As a result Europe has begun moving towards the unthinkable: Political Union. Yep - A United States of Europe.

In order to stave off or delay the day of reckoning, the Europeans will push closer together.
Meanwhile, the storm clouds will continue to gather.

The wild card, I suspect, will be two-fold. One Northern and one Southern.
First the Southern. Everyone knows the south of Europe is a great place to take a holiday, but a poor one to try to get anything done. They work when they feel like it.

Or so the stereotype goes.

As such - Italy is the other one to watch that no one seems to be talking about.The list of problems is deep and long. Suffice it to say - it's a secret to no one.

Then there is the question of the Northern surprise - one that could really rock markets and confidence in Europe the world over.

I believe that one of the northern countries - one of the apparent stalwarts - will be found to be WEAKER  than expected. Based on its history, France has always  been closer in culture and mentality to the colourful and profligate South rather than the bland, goosestepping North. More like Spain or Italy than Germany or Denmark.

And if it happens, that will really cause jitters. There will be talk of the end of the Euro again, and the currency could very well push all the way down to parity.

But the Eurocrats will do anything to maintain the facade of unity and strength because they realise their whole Euro scheme will unravel if they don't. So - in the end - they will do whatever it takes to prop up their precious Euro. Even till their last dime.


4. ECONOMIC TECTONIC SHIFTS
And here's the part no one talking about. It is inevitable. It is coming. It will change the balance of power in the world for good.
What is it?
It is when the world realises that the developed world is not Rich anymore, but POOR. That is has spent all its money on welfare and war. It is when the world wakes up to the fact that the emerging countries, like BRIC [Brazil, Russia, India, China] are awash in cash and getting richer everyday.

And with it --- will be a realignment of power in the world.

It will be very interesting indeed to see the countries of the West stand with their hats out to the peoples they've looked down on for so long....
And I believe this will start with the problems in Europe that are just beginning.
Because in the end --- Not This Year --- but eventually Europe will fall. The Euro will come apart. The union will fail and they will be back to the squabbling, bickering countries they've been since the fall of Rome.

With one big difference. They will no longer be the rich and powerful masters of the earth -- but second or even third rate powers off in a dark corner of the world while the real action plays out elsewhere.



5. Australia: Headed For A Serious Crash---
Australia, the darling Down Under has been flying high of late. Americans are even immigrating.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704118504576034130441492962.html
To me that article is like seeing the CEO of a company on Time Magazine. Time to SELL.
Not to mention the currency is past parity. Housing prices are sky-high. Both in Bubble territory...
China is raising interest rates which is likely to slow their demand for commodities.
Remember the old saying - Updated?: China sneezes, Australia catches a cold.

My advice: SELL, Sell, sell.... In 6 months, you'll be glad you did.


6. The U.S.: Better weather ahead.
The US definitely has its problems. But right now, it is a case of Least Ugly Wins. With the whole world having problems, you don't have to be the fastest or most beautiful to win the race, you just have to be a little less slow or a little less ugly than everyone else.

I believe as the year progresses, more and more people will realise that for all its warts and pimples, the US economy and currency are still the best of all.
I expect to see the the employment picture get better by inches. Interest rates will begin rising before the end of the year and there will likely be a major re-evaluation of the US dollar as it begins systematically rising --on a long term basis-- against every major currency.

That's all for now. I may add to this post if other things occur to me....