Where do I start?
Europe is such a mess? Where do you begin trying to unravel it?
Many countries, especially many Americans laughed in derision as the Europeans espoused their lofty plans to create a pan-european society to rival America. Even many IN Europe didn't believe it.
I'm glad America has a little competition. That keeps everybody healthier and more fit. But - Europe will end in shame and defeat, returning to their various local currencies. Here's why...
But first - let's take a little walk down memory lane...
It all started with the Treaty of Rome and the creation of the European Economic Community, EEC. Then,
little by little through various baby-steps like the European Exchange Rate Mechanism, Europe embarked on its grand journey. Still the neysayers sneered. Even many in Europe continued to doubt.
Fast-forward to 1999. The grand new currency was created and christened - EURO. YAhooooo. Yippee...? Nope. Actually the people of the world and the markets in particular fairly yawned. The Euro quickly went from 1.17US to 80 US cents. An embarrassing start to say the least.
Then in 2002, when the paper was actually issued the currency finally began to get some respect. In fact, due to America's own self-inflicted problems, the Euro embarked on a nearly 10 year long rise. First back over parity. Then to its starting price - 1.17 and it didn't look back until the 1.60s.
You could almost hear them shouting: "Who's the man now, America? There's a new kid on the block." But they just didn't realise what a flash-in-the-pan they would be. How this plan would end like every other attempt to unite Europe since the fall of Rome.
And that is the root of the problem. Europe's troubled past... And more to the point, how that hampers and distorts their ability to perceive and deal with present realities that dooms them.
What we're seeing now is only the beginning of troubles.
Like Oil and Water...
1. You can't mix oil and water. You can't put the A-student with the D-student and hope the D student will improve. Experience has shown us again and again - The superior student will only be weakened by the poor student.
Think about it. In the Euro, they have pretended they could blend Spaniards with Dutch? Italians with Germans? Greeks with Danes? Are you kidding me!?
The North of Europe and the South are like Day and Night.
The Northerners know how to work, but not how to live.
The Southerners know how to live, but not how to work.
So - you've always had a divided continent. At door number 1, you have the stolid, boring, bland BUT hard, hard working northern countries. They are frugal. Savers. Careful. Planners and Builders. And they have world-class economies to show for it.
At door number 2, you have the Southerners. They are too busy enjoying life, Eating, Drinking, Feeling, Creating, Snoozing to be too bothered with ever doing anything too hard or taxing. Work --- Oh they do it when they have to. Then stop.
And as a result their lifestyle has been, and still is the envy of the world. They export their food and luxuries to the ends of the earth.
Their mentality has often been described as 'Manana', or Tomorrow. The put everything off - except FUN.
Work hard? Save money? Why should we?
'Live today, for tomorrow we die.'
These two will not blend without hard, severe, dirty, political union - Ever.
Then there is the reality conundrum...
2. The Europeans want to become a great power again, but without paying the price. Without getting their hands dirty. Without having to sully themselves with all the ugliness and nastiness that goes along with gaining and maintaining power.
Being one of the big boys is not for nice guys. And frankly, the Euros are just too nice.
They don't want to have to give up their sovereignty. They don't want to have a large, expensive military. They don't want wars.
And I understand. After the devastation in two world wars, they are understandably loathe to go to war. The problem is - if you're unwilling to fight, others WILL take advantage of you. It's called Human Nature.
No changin that.
So - they've tried to just have the currency. Have their proverbial cake and eat it too. Have the benefits that a common currency will bestow while still remaining independent.
Well, the charade has gone on for about 10 years and they are just now discovering what the Americans knew all along. Without political union, and without a military that has real teeth, and a general in command willing to bite, currency union is a joke that will never work long term.
A quick look at others who've contemplated world power will serve to illustrate why the Euros lack of grasp on reality and why the will never succeed.
Others Contestants in The Great Power Game
The Japanese had a chance to take the reigns of power - at least as a serious contender for title of Master of Asia. They declined.
Like a man or woman nominated for high office who refuses to run.
They were very clear. 'We don't want to make the sacrifices to become a world power. No. We like our little island. We are stuck in our ways. We don't want to have too much to do with foreigners. We like things the way they are. Thank you very much.'
They didn't have the stomach or balls for the dirty business. And that's OK.
China, on the other hand, IS hell-bent on becoming a great power. And they ARE willing to pay the price.
Their people have their nose to the grind-stones. Working hard hard hard. And saving upwards of 40% of their pay.
They are pursuing peace with all the countries surrounding them. Not out of any love for peace or any altruistic urge. No. It is about settling any ongoing disputes so they can focus ALL their energies on building their empire. They know they're not strong enough YET.
They are using their growing economic clout to build and bully their way to sustainable sources of energy to power their ever growing machine. They're on a military build-up of massive proportions. They have an active and ambitious space program.
They will succeed. They are willing to pay the price and do whatever it takes. No matter how hard or dirty. Or how long it takes.
In fact, they are very happy if America and Europe spend themselves into bankruptcy. 'Can we help you go broke faster sir...' Because they're waiting, building, biding their time. Waiting for the moment when they can start their world empire by taking over the shipping lanes of Asia.
That's the difference.
That's the hard truth the Chinese get. Americans too.
On the other hand, the Euros think they can create another model. A more humane, more noble model. Hence their International Criminal Court among other projects. They think they can find a way to become a great power without the dirty, nasty hard, long slog. But -
BECAUSE THEY DENY HUMAN NATURE the Euros will fail and once again become a cold, lonely forgotten corner of the world --- that once was great. But failed because they lost sight of reality.
14 January 2011
11 January 2011
The Japanese : From One Idiot to Another
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703779704576074661995527474.html
Don't get me wrong. I ADMIRE the Japanese for MANY reasons. I lived there. And I have a deep affinity for the people and culture.
BUT as Clint Eastwood in the final scene of the movie Magnum Force, says: "A man's got to know his limitations" before walking away.
Well, the Japanese Finance Minister Yoshihiko Noda should have done the same. He should have kept his mouth shut and walked away.
Instead - now they are committed to buying a bunch of Triple-A rated Junk securities from Europe.
I mean, how much is the rating worth when we know most of Europe is bankrupt? Really!?
And that's not even mentioning the exchange loss they are likely to see.
Because if my prediction is even anywhere close to the mark (See Predictions for 2011.), and the Euro is fetching something near 1 dollar at the end of the year...
The Japanese will take at least a 25% haircut... Great Job Guys!
It's this lack of grand, strategic ability and the lack of balls to stand on the world stage is the reason the Japanese never became a world power.
China on the other hand has the balls, the brains, the brawn and the sheer will and do-anything mentality.
They are rapidly pushing their way to the front of the world power pack....
Not so the Japanese. They should stick to making cars and electronics... Stuff they're good at.
Don't get me wrong. I ADMIRE the Japanese for MANY reasons. I lived there. And I have a deep affinity for the people and culture.
BUT as Clint Eastwood in the final scene of the movie Magnum Force, says: "A man's got to know his limitations" before walking away.
Well, the Japanese Finance Minister Yoshihiko Noda should have done the same. He should have kept his mouth shut and walked away.
Instead - now they are committed to buying a bunch of Triple-A rated Junk securities from Europe.
I mean, how much is the rating worth when we know most of Europe is bankrupt? Really!?
And that's not even mentioning the exchange loss they are likely to see.
Because if my prediction is even anywhere close to the mark (See Predictions for 2011.), and the Euro is fetching something near 1 dollar at the end of the year...
The Japanese will take at least a 25% haircut... Great Job Guys!
It's this lack of grand, strategic ability and the lack of balls to stand on the world stage is the reason the Japanese never became a world power.
China on the other hand has the balls, the brains, the brawn and the sheer will and do-anything mentality.
They are rapidly pushing their way to the front of the world power pack....
Not so the Japanese. They should stick to making cars and electronics... Stuff they're good at.
05 January 2011
Do You Have These Common Misunderstandings of Forgiveness, Honesty and Judgement?
Today, I'm going to take a little detour into an area i usually don't talk about. Philosophy which borders on religion.
I do this for one reason. I believe there is a lot of misunderstanding about certain terms that leads to a lot of Madness. Here's how:
In the West - especially in the US, with its Judeo-Christian cultural foundation - there is often a skewed understanding of Honesty, Forgiveness and Judgement. Ideas which are very counterproductive, even destructive.
Let's start with Honesty since it's the easiest one to deal with.
Everyone knows that every major religion on earth has prohibitions against dishonesty. It is universal. Of course the most famous being the 10 Commandments in the Jewish Torah (the Old Testament for Christians).
Then of course, in America, Honesty has been enshrined in law and made famous by the court-room dramas where the witness takes the oath to: "Tell the truth, the whole truth and nothing but the truth..."
And it is not just the classics. There have been a number of blockbuster movies in the last 10 years whose subject has been honesty. I can think of a couple of comedies in particular. And in each case, the MORAL of the story is that we should bear-it-all. Tell all. Keep nothing inside. Have Naked souls.
Nothing could be further from the truth.
First of all, Honesty is not an absolute. And Honesty DOES not mean sharing all.
Not an absolute?
Yep.
This is a classic example, but it illustrates well the point. Imagine you are living in a country that is Not free. (Or if you are, this will instantly ring a bell as you read...) Also, let's imagine you belong to a minority group which is being persecuted.
And - please - I don't want to hear anyone tell me this is an unreasonable example. There are too many such groups in different places --now and historically-- to count.
You really don't have look far to find racial, ethnic, religious and political persecution -- even genocide.
But just to keep our example straightforward, imagine you are a member of that persecuted group. Imagine also that the ruling group has decided your group needs to be exterminated and that now they are conducting house-to-house searches.
Further, imagine, that due to some genetic anomaly, you don't look like the persecuted group. A soldier knocks at the door and asks if there are any your people in the house or who live there?
What do you say?
Do you tell all? Spill your guts? Tell the truth, the whole truth and nothing but the truth, so help you God, knowing it will mean the certain death and dismemberment of you and your extended family?
Of course not. And if you are religious will that lie send you to dark and firey place?
In most ethical systems, there is something known as a Hierarchy of Values. That is a fancy way of saying some values trump others. Or to put it another way, whenever two values come into conflict, you can AND MUST break the one lower on the totem pole and keep the one higher up.
In the case above, you are not telling a lie for personal gain, convenience or fraud. You are not trying to get something that is not yours or keep something you've stolen. No.
You're trying to preserve life. And that value stands at the very top of the heap.
The exhortation to tell the truth is to keep us from gaining unfair advantage. The requirement is null and void when someone is trying to take your life or property.
Consider this very common practice: You leave home. But you leave some of the lights on or ask a neighbor to take your mail inside for you. You may even invest in a system that will turn the lights on at a certain hour every day and off in the daytime. WHY?
You want any would be thief to THINK someone is home. In essence, your intent is to deceive him. Are you wrong? Should you announce to the world that no one is home?
Or, if at work there is a certain someone, [you know who i'm talking about] who is just a little too interested, a tad too friendly, just a smidgin too concerned about you, you can be almost assured they are up to no good.
Do you owe it to them to let it all hang out?
OK... Nuff said.
Then there is Forgiveness. A sticky mess of matted honey it is... Again - because of the influence of religion, it is generally accepted that if someone wrongs you, the high-minded, the noble, the right thing to do is to 'Forgive' him or her. Let it go. Wash it away. Don't dwell on it. Accept that person fully, and forget. 'Forgive and Forget.'
Like Honesty, Forgiveness has its cultural roots in a misguided and erroneous interpretation of the term.
It is said, and I believe it is true based on my own research into the 3 desert religions (Judaism, Christianity and Islam), that Christianity and Islam each got part of the equation. But each is unbalanced.
Here's what I mean: Judaism puts great emphasis on the BALANCE of Justice and Mercy. They believe you cannot have One without the other.
That is Justice without mercy is not justice.
(Think of the a system where the criminal regularly escapes because the system is lenient and forgiving...)
And that
There is no Mercy (or Love) without Justice.
I'll let you think of your own examples...
Islam has taken and emphasises Justice at all costs. That is why we hear of Muslim countries sometimes cutting off the hands of a thief. Or someone being stoned in a public square. There are still public hangings in a place in Riyadh affectionately called 'Chop-Chop-Square'.
Christianity on the other hand --- has gone the other way --- emphasising Mercy to the exclusion of Justice.
(Again - just look at certain legal systems...)
Unfortunately, this is the root of the cultural bias and unbalanced idea about Forgiveness...
Because while all of that advice is good and sound, it masks a deeper cultural expectation. Down the rabbit hole we go....
Let's imagine someone wrongs me. Forgive. OK. Done. I'm not expecting anything in return. Not even an apology, certainly not any form of restitution. So - I've forgiven. Or have I?
Because the unwritten, unspoken, but universally understood implication of the infamous "Forgive and Forget" is that now I should PRETEND the incident never happened.
According to the cultural misconception, I should now roll back the clock in my mind and act like nothing ever happened.
OK. Hmmmm.
Let's say I lent someone my car. They get into an accident.
Wanting to be a good citizen and friend (or relative or whatever) I say --- "No sweat. I forgive you. I'll take care of everything."
So far so good - right?
But what do I do when that same person wants to borrow my car again?
This is where this cultural rubber of this lunacy meets the road of reality and light.
So what to do?
If I've forgiven and forgotten, am I now obliged to AGAIN loan my car? Because that is the logical fallacy many people struggle with. And...
What if it's much more dire? What if it could put you or your family's life in danger?
This is where I depart from the teachings or interpretations of some cultures and religions. I say. I can forgive, but
if I loan my car to that person again, I am a fool. If I put myself or my family in that same car with him, I deserve whatever happens and more.
Just like telling the truth doesn't not mean telling all to anybody who asks irrespective of their
motives or intent, I have no obligation to allow someone to repeat the same vile, irresponsible, destructive act again and again. That is madness and irresponsibility to myself and those I love.
Even if I believe the offender has materially changed and matured since that first unfortunate incident, it is still my judgement whether I want to take that risk again.
And if there is NO evidence at all indicating any change on the part of the offender, and IF I choose to loan him the car, again, I am the fool.
And that brings us to thorny ole Judgement. Oh what a nasty, four letter word it has become. 'How dare you judge me'! and its derivitives are so commonly heard, you have to ask yourself what they mean? And do they even make sense?
This one is simple and easy. This is really a cry for open-mindedness. A grand, noble and wonderful thing.
But ---and this is the problem--- like so many good things it has been taken to an extreme which makes it ridiculous. To judge is simply to evaluate. Something we do every hour of every day. It is the act of weighing options, assessing dangers and opportunities, and then making decisions. It is the basis of thinking and it is necessary for survival.
So - for someone to say we shouldn't judge is a little silly. What they should say is - we shouldn't PRE-judge. But all judgement is not bad.
Witness the incident above.
If someone else damages your car, you are now making a judgement based on experience. Or to make this just a bit juicier: (And unfortunately this happens everyday - somewhere...)
What if a family member comes to pick you up in the car, but you realise they've been drinking. Do you get in? Do you tell your kids to get in...??
That is judgement. Sweet and wonderful.
In essence we could say you are POST-judging, basing your decision on sound past experience and present evidence (or lack there of) of any change.... And that is an EXCELLENT and essential thing to do if we are to survive another day to live and love.
So - I encourage anyone out there: Don't be cowered or intimidated by these cultural blind spots and bits of lunacy. Well meaning or not, they are destructive if followed. I hope you will trust and stand up for yourself.
I don't owe anyone my life story, or the insanity of being a fool in order to appear agreeable. You don't either.
I do this for one reason. I believe there is a lot of misunderstanding about certain terms that leads to a lot of Madness. Here's how:
In the West - especially in the US, with its Judeo-Christian cultural foundation - there is often a skewed understanding of Honesty, Forgiveness and Judgement. Ideas which are very counterproductive, even destructive.
Let's start with Honesty since it's the easiest one to deal with.
Everyone knows that every major religion on earth has prohibitions against dishonesty. It is universal. Of course the most famous being the 10 Commandments in the Jewish Torah (the Old Testament for Christians).
Then of course, in America, Honesty has been enshrined in law and made famous by the court-room dramas where the witness takes the oath to: "Tell the truth, the whole truth and nothing but the truth..."
And it is not just the classics. There have been a number of blockbuster movies in the last 10 years whose subject has been honesty. I can think of a couple of comedies in particular. And in each case, the MORAL of the story is that we should bear-it-all. Tell all. Keep nothing inside. Have Naked souls.
Nothing could be further from the truth.
First of all, Honesty is not an absolute. And Honesty DOES not mean sharing all.
Not an absolute?
Yep.
This is a classic example, but it illustrates well the point. Imagine you are living in a country that is Not free. (Or if you are, this will instantly ring a bell as you read...) Also, let's imagine you belong to a minority group which is being persecuted.
And - please - I don't want to hear anyone tell me this is an unreasonable example. There are too many such groups in different places --now and historically-- to count.
You really don't have look far to find racial, ethnic, religious and political persecution -- even genocide.
But just to keep our example straightforward, imagine you are a member of that persecuted group. Imagine also that the ruling group has decided your group needs to be exterminated and that now they are conducting house-to-house searches.
Further, imagine, that due to some genetic anomaly, you don't look like the persecuted group. A soldier knocks at the door and asks if there are any your people in the house or who live there?
What do you say?
Do you tell all? Spill your guts? Tell the truth, the whole truth and nothing but the truth, so help you God, knowing it will mean the certain death and dismemberment of you and your extended family?
Of course not. And if you are religious will that lie send you to dark and firey place?
In most ethical systems, there is something known as a Hierarchy of Values. That is a fancy way of saying some values trump others. Or to put it another way, whenever two values come into conflict, you can AND MUST break the one lower on the totem pole and keep the one higher up.
In the case above, you are not telling a lie for personal gain, convenience or fraud. You are not trying to get something that is not yours or keep something you've stolen. No.
You're trying to preserve life. And that value stands at the very top of the heap.
The exhortation to tell the truth is to keep us from gaining unfair advantage. The requirement is null and void when someone is trying to take your life or property.
Consider this very common practice: You leave home. But you leave some of the lights on or ask a neighbor to take your mail inside for you. You may even invest in a system that will turn the lights on at a certain hour every day and off in the daytime. WHY?
You want any would be thief to THINK someone is home. In essence, your intent is to deceive him. Are you wrong? Should you announce to the world that no one is home?
Or, if at work there is a certain someone, [you know who i'm talking about] who is just a little too interested, a tad too friendly, just a smidgin too concerned about you, you can be almost assured they are up to no good.
Do you owe it to them to let it all hang out?
OK... Nuff said.
Then there is Forgiveness. A sticky mess of matted honey it is... Again - because of the influence of religion, it is generally accepted that if someone wrongs you, the high-minded, the noble, the right thing to do is to 'Forgive' him or her. Let it go. Wash it away. Don't dwell on it. Accept that person fully, and forget. 'Forgive and Forget.'
Like Honesty, Forgiveness has its cultural roots in a misguided and erroneous interpretation of the term.
It is said, and I believe it is true based on my own research into the 3 desert religions (Judaism, Christianity and Islam), that Christianity and Islam each got part of the equation. But each is unbalanced.
Here's what I mean: Judaism puts great emphasis on the BALANCE of Justice and Mercy. They believe you cannot have One without the other.
That is Justice without mercy is not justice.
(Think of the a system where the criminal regularly escapes because the system is lenient and forgiving...)
And that
There is no Mercy (or Love) without Justice.
I'll let you think of your own examples...
Islam has taken and emphasises Justice at all costs. That is why we hear of Muslim countries sometimes cutting off the hands of a thief. Or someone being stoned in a public square. There are still public hangings in a place in Riyadh affectionately called 'Chop-Chop-Square'.
Christianity on the other hand --- has gone the other way --- emphasising Mercy to the exclusion of Justice.
(Again - just look at certain legal systems...)
Unfortunately, this is the root of the cultural bias and unbalanced idea about Forgiveness...
Because while all of that advice is good and sound, it masks a deeper cultural expectation. Down the rabbit hole we go....
Let's imagine someone wrongs me. Forgive. OK. Done. I'm not expecting anything in return. Not even an apology, certainly not any form of restitution. So - I've forgiven. Or have I?
Because the unwritten, unspoken, but universally understood implication of the infamous "Forgive and Forget" is that now I should PRETEND the incident never happened.
According to the cultural misconception, I should now roll back the clock in my mind and act like nothing ever happened.
OK. Hmmmm.
Let's say I lent someone my car. They get into an accident.
Wanting to be a good citizen and friend (or relative or whatever) I say --- "No sweat. I forgive you. I'll take care of everything."
So far so good - right?
But what do I do when that same person wants to borrow my car again?
This is where this cultural rubber of this lunacy meets the road of reality and light.
So what to do?
If I've forgiven and forgotten, am I now obliged to AGAIN loan my car? Because that is the logical fallacy many people struggle with. And...
What if it's much more dire? What if it could put you or your family's life in danger?
This is where I depart from the teachings or interpretations of some cultures and religions. I say. I can forgive, but
if I loan my car to that person again, I am a fool. If I put myself or my family in that same car with him, I deserve whatever happens and more.
Just like telling the truth doesn't not mean telling all to anybody who asks irrespective of their
motives or intent, I have no obligation to allow someone to repeat the same vile, irresponsible, destructive act again and again. That is madness and irresponsibility to myself and those I love.
Even if I believe the offender has materially changed and matured since that first unfortunate incident, it is still my judgement whether I want to take that risk again.
And if there is NO evidence at all indicating any change on the part of the offender, and IF I choose to loan him the car, again, I am the fool.
And that brings us to thorny ole Judgement. Oh what a nasty, four letter word it has become. 'How dare you judge me'! and its derivitives are so commonly heard, you have to ask yourself what they mean? And do they even make sense?
This one is simple and easy. This is really a cry for open-mindedness. A grand, noble and wonderful thing.
But ---and this is the problem--- like so many good things it has been taken to an extreme which makes it ridiculous. To judge is simply to evaluate. Something we do every hour of every day. It is the act of weighing options, assessing dangers and opportunities, and then making decisions. It is the basis of thinking and it is necessary for survival.
So - for someone to say we shouldn't judge is a little silly. What they should say is - we shouldn't PRE-judge. But all judgement is not bad.
Witness the incident above.
If someone else damages your car, you are now making a judgement based on experience. Or to make this just a bit juicier: (And unfortunately this happens everyday - somewhere...)
What if a family member comes to pick you up in the car, but you realise they've been drinking. Do you get in? Do you tell your kids to get in...??
That is judgement. Sweet and wonderful.
In essence we could say you are POST-judging, basing your decision on sound past experience and present evidence (or lack there of) of any change.... And that is an EXCELLENT and essential thing to do if we are to survive another day to live and love.
So - I encourage anyone out there: Don't be cowered or intimidated by these cultural blind spots and bits of lunacy. Well meaning or not, they are destructive if followed. I hope you will trust and stand up for yourself.
I don't owe anyone my life story, or the insanity of being a fool in order to appear agreeable. You don't either.
01 January 2011
Predictions For 2011...
Every year i find myself reading some newspaper or magazine's predictions for the coming year. And every year i sit there shaking my head in disbelief. I just can't believe how naive, bland and tasteless --- not to mention WRONG -- most predictions are. They only see in straight lines.
But that's just not how life, events and history play out. They take twists and turns and unexpected plunges. Totally new players emerge from left field to take center stage... and things we never imagined - HAPPEN.
The Economist, for example, admitted that it got nearly ALL its predictions for 2010 WRONG.
So what do they and many other publications do?
Yep. With a track record of utter failure, they invite us to read their predictions -- Yet AGAIN.
That i just don't get.
So this year, instead of sitting there in June or August and saying to my partner: "I told you such and such would happen", I've decided to go on record. Lay my predictions out and see how accurate I was in 12 months.
So, while some of my predictions will be extrapolations of trends already underway --straight lines-- others will attempt to anticipate the unexpected. As such, there is an inevitable degree of risk in making such predictions. But then that comes with the territory.
And even if they're totally off the mark - they won't be any worse than the others.....
Here goes:
1. Apple WARS: The Empire of Competitors Strike Back
Apple has been in an enviable position for several years with very little real competition. That is about to change. And with some interesting consequences. I predict that the same thing that happened with the personal computer back in the 80s and 90s will happen again. History will repeat itself.
For those of us old enough to remember - Apple single-handedly invented the pc - the original Mac. BUT, then as now - they tried to keep everything locked tight inside the Apple Kingdom. Although their machines were light years ahead of anything else, they were not FLEXIBLE or ADAPTABLE.
Then, as now, Steve Jobs kept iron-fisted control. And of course Apple's products were sold at a premium.
Then came Microsoft. That dorky nerd company with the whiny-sounding boss.
But Billy-boy understood something about human nature and marketing that Jobs in all his technical brilliance was blind too.
People want LOWER prices and more FLEXIBILITY. They don't want somebody telling them their product can only be used in a certain way. Even if it means a less sophisticated, harder to use product.
Billy-boy gave businesses, then the mass markets what they wanted. Not unlike the Video wars between Sony and Matsushita in the 80s. Remember the Betamax from Sony? It was technically better - had a much crisper, better quality picture. BUT
The VHS - which was a vastly inferior product from Mastushita was better. Better because they understood what people would want to USE the video for. To watch movies. Sony's Betamax was only 60 minutes in the beginning. The VHS two hours. Guess which one triumphed?
Matstushita, like Microsoft, made a vastly inferior product, but which answered the needs, what people really wanted. Sony just didn't get what people would use their products for.
Microsoft, similarly got its hands on several disparate programs from other companies and created its first integrated Office product.
Today MANY people are complaining about the Ipad's lack of Flash, locked Iphones and poor reception etc... It is only a matter of time before some one sees the possibilities in Apples products and history repeats.
Expect to see the humbling of Apple begin this year as the competition's products begin hitting the markets. In fact - Samsung already has its own Ipad ready to launch in Korea in March and in summer worldwide...
2. Gold : What Goes UP, Must Come Down, down, down...
Gold has been in a bull market for nearly 10 years. Up 30% just this year -- at over 1400US per ounce. It is so way over-priced, it is in bubble territory. Now would be an excellent time to take profits on any gold one has.
Because I see it falling back initially to the 1150s, then at some point to see it's low for the year in the 700s. And by year-end, it should have recovered back to the 900 range.
3.. Europe: Storm Clouds Continue To Gather and Darken.
We've seen Iceland implode. Then Greece need and get a rescue package. Next Ireland. And now Spain and Portugal are teetering on the brink of default... As a result Europe has begun moving towards the unthinkable: Political Union. Yep - A United States of Europe.
In order to stave off or delay the day of reckoning, the Europeans will push closer together.
Meanwhile, the storm clouds will continue to gather.
The wild card, I suspect, will be two-fold. One Northern and one Southern.
First the Southern. Everyone knows the south of Europe is a great place to take a holiday, but a poor one to try to get anything done. They work when they feel like it.
Or so the stereotype goes.
As such - Italy is the other one to watch that no one seems to be talking about.The list of problems is deep and long. Suffice it to say - it's a secret to no one.
Then there is the question of the Northern surprise - one that could really rock markets and confidence in Europe the world over.
I believe that one of the northern countries - one of the apparent stalwarts - will be found to be WEAKER than expected. Based on its history, France has always been closer in culture and mentality to the colourful and profligate South rather than the bland, goosestepping North. More like Spain or Italy than Germany or Denmark.
And if it happens, that will really cause jitters. There will be talk of the end of the Euro again, and the currency could very well push all the way down to parity.
But the Eurocrats will do anything to maintain the facade of unity and strength because they realise their whole Euro scheme will unravel if they don't. So - in the end - they will do whatever it takes to prop up their precious Euro. Even till their last dime.
4. ECONOMIC TECTONIC SHIFTS
And here's the part no one talking about. It is inevitable. It is coming. It will change the balance of power in the world for good.
What is it?
It is when the world realises that the developed world is not Rich anymore, but POOR. That is has spent all its money on welfare and war. It is when the world wakes up to the fact that the emerging countries, like BRIC [Brazil, Russia, India, China] are awash in cash and getting richer everyday.
And with it --- will be a realignment of power in the world.
It will be very interesting indeed to see the countries of the West stand with their hats out to the peoples they've looked down on for so long....
And I believe this will start with the problems in Europe that are just beginning.
Because in the end --- Not This Year --- but eventually Europe will fall. The Euro will come apart. The union will fail and they will be back to the squabbling, bickering countries they've been since the fall of Rome.
With one big difference. They will no longer be the rich and powerful masters of the earth -- but second or even third rate powers off in a dark corner of the world while the real action plays out elsewhere.
5. Australia: Headed For A Serious Crash---
Australia, the darling Down Under has been flying high of late. Americans are even immigrating.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704118504576034130441492962.html
To me that article is like seeing the CEO of a company on Time Magazine. Time to SELL.
Not to mention the currency is past parity. Housing prices are sky-high. Both in Bubble territory...
China is raising interest rates which is likely to slow their demand for commodities.
Remember the old saying - Updated?: China sneezes, Australia catches a cold.
My advice: SELL, Sell, sell.... In 6 months, you'll be glad you did.
6. The U.S.: Better weather ahead.
The US definitely has its problems. But right now, it is a case of Least Ugly Wins. With the whole world having problems, you don't have to be the fastest or most beautiful to win the race, you just have to be a little less slow or a little less ugly than everyone else.
I believe as the year progresses, more and more people will realise that for all its warts and pimples, the US economy and currency are still the best of all.
I expect to see the the employment picture get better by inches. Interest rates will begin rising before the end of the year and there will likely be a major re-evaluation of the US dollar as it begins systematically rising --on a long term basis-- against every major currency.
That's all for now. I may add to this post if other things occur to me....
But that's just not how life, events and history play out. They take twists and turns and unexpected plunges. Totally new players emerge from left field to take center stage... and things we never imagined - HAPPEN.
The Economist, for example, admitted that it got nearly ALL its predictions for 2010 WRONG.
So what do they and many other publications do?
Yep. With a track record of utter failure, they invite us to read their predictions -- Yet AGAIN.
That i just don't get.
So this year, instead of sitting there in June or August and saying to my partner: "I told you such and such would happen", I've decided to go on record. Lay my predictions out and see how accurate I was in 12 months.
So, while some of my predictions will be extrapolations of trends already underway --straight lines-- others will attempt to anticipate the unexpected. As such, there is an inevitable degree of risk in making such predictions. But then that comes with the territory.
And even if they're totally off the mark - they won't be any worse than the others.....
Here goes:
1. Apple WARS: The Empire of Competitors Strike Back
Apple has been in an enviable position for several years with very little real competition. That is about to change. And with some interesting consequences. I predict that the same thing that happened with the personal computer back in the 80s and 90s will happen again. History will repeat itself.
For those of us old enough to remember - Apple single-handedly invented the pc - the original Mac. BUT, then as now - they tried to keep everything locked tight inside the Apple Kingdom. Although their machines were light years ahead of anything else, they were not FLEXIBLE or ADAPTABLE.
Then, as now, Steve Jobs kept iron-fisted control. And of course Apple's products were sold at a premium.
Then came Microsoft. That dorky nerd company with the whiny-sounding boss.
But Billy-boy understood something about human nature and marketing that Jobs in all his technical brilliance was blind too.
People want LOWER prices and more FLEXIBILITY. They don't want somebody telling them their product can only be used in a certain way. Even if it means a less sophisticated, harder to use product.
Billy-boy gave businesses, then the mass markets what they wanted. Not unlike the Video wars between Sony and Matsushita in the 80s. Remember the Betamax from Sony? It was technically better - had a much crisper, better quality picture. BUT
The VHS - which was a vastly inferior product from Mastushita was better. Better because they understood what people would want to USE the video for. To watch movies. Sony's Betamax was only 60 minutes in the beginning. The VHS two hours. Guess which one triumphed?
Matstushita, like Microsoft, made a vastly inferior product, but which answered the needs, what people really wanted. Sony just didn't get what people would use their products for.
Microsoft, similarly got its hands on several disparate programs from other companies and created its first integrated Office product.
Today MANY people are complaining about the Ipad's lack of Flash, locked Iphones and poor reception etc... It is only a matter of time before some one sees the possibilities in Apples products and history repeats.
Expect to see the humbling of Apple begin this year as the competition's products begin hitting the markets. In fact - Samsung already has its own Ipad ready to launch in Korea in March and in summer worldwide...
2. Gold : What Goes UP, Must Come Down, down, down...
Gold has been in a bull market for nearly 10 years. Up 30% just this year -- at over 1400US per ounce. It is so way over-priced, it is in bubble territory. Now would be an excellent time to take profits on any gold one has.
Because I see it falling back initially to the 1150s, then at some point to see it's low for the year in the 700s. And by year-end, it should have recovered back to the 900 range.
3.. Europe: Storm Clouds Continue To Gather and Darken.
We've seen Iceland implode. Then Greece need and get a rescue package. Next Ireland. And now Spain and Portugal are teetering on the brink of default... As a result Europe has begun moving towards the unthinkable: Political Union. Yep - A United States of Europe.
In order to stave off or delay the day of reckoning, the Europeans will push closer together.
Meanwhile, the storm clouds will continue to gather.
The wild card, I suspect, will be two-fold. One Northern and one Southern.
First the Southern. Everyone knows the south of Europe is a great place to take a holiday, but a poor one to try to get anything done. They work when they feel like it.
Or so the stereotype goes.
As such - Italy is the other one to watch that no one seems to be talking about.The list of problems is deep and long. Suffice it to say - it's a secret to no one.
Then there is the question of the Northern surprise - one that could really rock markets and confidence in Europe the world over.
I believe that one of the northern countries - one of the apparent stalwarts - will be found to be WEAKER than expected. Based on its history, France has always been closer in culture and mentality to the colourful and profligate South rather than the bland, goosestepping North. More like Spain or Italy than Germany or Denmark.
And if it happens, that will really cause jitters. There will be talk of the end of the Euro again, and the currency could very well push all the way down to parity.
But the Eurocrats will do anything to maintain the facade of unity and strength because they realise their whole Euro scheme will unravel if they don't. So - in the end - they will do whatever it takes to prop up their precious Euro. Even till their last dime.
4. ECONOMIC TECTONIC SHIFTS
And here's the part no one talking about. It is inevitable. It is coming. It will change the balance of power in the world for good.
What is it?
It is when the world realises that the developed world is not Rich anymore, but POOR. That is has spent all its money on welfare and war. It is when the world wakes up to the fact that the emerging countries, like BRIC [Brazil, Russia, India, China] are awash in cash and getting richer everyday.
And with it --- will be a realignment of power in the world.
It will be very interesting indeed to see the countries of the West stand with their hats out to the peoples they've looked down on for so long....
And I believe this will start with the problems in Europe that are just beginning.
Because in the end --- Not This Year --- but eventually Europe will fall. The Euro will come apart. The union will fail and they will be back to the squabbling, bickering countries they've been since the fall of Rome.
With one big difference. They will no longer be the rich and powerful masters of the earth -- but second or even third rate powers off in a dark corner of the world while the real action plays out elsewhere.
5. Australia: Headed For A Serious Crash---
Australia, the darling Down Under has been flying high of late. Americans are even immigrating.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704118504576034130441492962.html
To me that article is like seeing the CEO of a company on Time Magazine. Time to SELL.
Not to mention the currency is past parity. Housing prices are sky-high. Both in Bubble territory...
China is raising interest rates which is likely to slow their demand for commodities.
Remember the old saying - Updated?: China sneezes, Australia catches a cold.
My advice: SELL, Sell, sell.... In 6 months, you'll be glad you did.
6. The U.S.: Better weather ahead.
The US definitely has its problems. But right now, it is a case of Least Ugly Wins. With the whole world having problems, you don't have to be the fastest or most beautiful to win the race, you just have to be a little less slow or a little less ugly than everyone else.
I believe as the year progresses, more and more people will realise that for all its warts and pimples, the US economy and currency are still the best of all.
I expect to see the the employment picture get better by inches. Interest rates will begin rising before the end of the year and there will likely be a major re-evaluation of the US dollar as it begins systematically rising --on a long term basis-- against every major currency.
That's all for now. I may add to this post if other things occur to me....
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