Where do I start?
Europe is such a mess? Where do you begin trying to unravel it?
Many countries, especially many Americans laughed in derision as the Europeans espoused their lofty plans to create a pan-european society to rival America. Even many IN Europe didn't believe it.
I'm glad America has a little competition. That keeps everybody healthier and more fit. But - Europe will end in shame and defeat, returning to their various local currencies. Here's why...
But first - let's take a little walk down memory lane...
It all started with the Treaty of Rome and the creation of the European Economic Community, EEC. Then,
little by little through various baby-steps like the European Exchange Rate Mechanism, Europe embarked on its grand journey. Still the neysayers sneered. Even many in Europe continued to doubt.
Fast-forward to 1999. The grand new currency was created and christened - EURO. YAhooooo. Yippee...? Nope. Actually the people of the world and the markets in particular fairly yawned. The Euro quickly went from 1.17US to 80 US cents. An embarrassing start to say the least.
Then in 2002, when the paper was actually issued the currency finally began to get some respect. In fact, due to America's own self-inflicted problems, the Euro embarked on a nearly 10 year long rise. First back over parity. Then to its starting price - 1.17 and it didn't look back until the 1.60s.
You could almost hear them shouting: "Who's the man now, America? There's a new kid on the block." But they just didn't realise what a flash-in-the-pan they would be. How this plan would end like every other attempt to unite Europe since the fall of Rome.
And that is the root of the problem. Europe's troubled past... And more to the point, how that hampers and distorts their ability to perceive and deal with present realities that dooms them.
What we're seeing now is only the beginning of troubles.
Like Oil and Water...
1. You can't mix oil and water. You can't put the A-student with the D-student and hope the D student will improve. Experience has shown us again and again - The superior student will only be weakened by the poor student.
Think about it. In the Euro, they have pretended they could blend Spaniards with Dutch? Italians with Germans? Greeks with Danes? Are you kidding me!?
The North of Europe and the South are like Day and Night.
The Northerners know how to work, but not how to live.
The Southerners know how to live, but not how to work.
So - you've always had a divided continent. At door number 1, you have the stolid, boring, bland BUT hard, hard working northern countries. They are frugal. Savers. Careful. Planners and Builders. And they have world-class economies to show for it.
At door number 2, you have the Southerners. They are too busy enjoying life, Eating, Drinking, Feeling, Creating, Snoozing to be too bothered with ever doing anything too hard or taxing. Work --- Oh they do it when they have to. Then stop.
And as a result their lifestyle has been, and still is the envy of the world. They export their food and luxuries to the ends of the earth.
Their mentality has often been described as 'Manana', or Tomorrow. The put everything off - except FUN.
Work hard? Save money? Why should we?
'Live today, for tomorrow we die.'
These two will not blend without hard, severe, dirty, political union - Ever.
Then there is the reality conundrum...
2. The Europeans want to become a great power again, but without paying the price. Without getting their hands dirty. Without having to sully themselves with all the ugliness and nastiness that goes along with gaining and maintaining power.
Being one of the big boys is not for nice guys. And frankly, the Euros are just too nice.
They don't want to have to give up their sovereignty. They don't want to have a large, expensive military. They don't want wars.
And I understand. After the devastation in two world wars, they are understandably loathe to go to war. The problem is - if you're unwilling to fight, others WILL take advantage of you. It's called Human Nature.
No changin that.
So - they've tried to just have the currency. Have their proverbial cake and eat it too. Have the benefits that a common currency will bestow while still remaining independent.
Well, the charade has gone on for about 10 years and they are just now discovering what the Americans knew all along. Without political union, and without a military that has real teeth, and a general in command willing to bite, currency union is a joke that will never work long term.
A quick look at others who've contemplated world power will serve to illustrate why the Euros lack of grasp on reality and why the will never succeed.
Others Contestants in The Great Power Game
The Japanese had a chance to take the reigns of power - at least as a serious contender for title of Master of Asia. They declined.
Like a man or woman nominated for high office who refuses to run.
They were very clear. 'We don't want to make the sacrifices to become a world power. No. We like our little island. We are stuck in our ways. We don't want to have too much to do with foreigners. We like things the way they are. Thank you very much.'
They didn't have the stomach or balls for the dirty business. And that's OK.
China, on the other hand, IS hell-bent on becoming a great power. And they ARE willing to pay the price.
Their people have their nose to the grind-stones. Working hard hard hard. And saving upwards of 40% of their pay.
They are pursuing peace with all the countries surrounding them. Not out of any love for peace or any altruistic urge. No. It is about settling any ongoing disputes so they can focus ALL their energies on building their empire. They know they're not strong enough YET.
They are using their growing economic clout to build and bully their way to sustainable sources of energy to power their ever growing machine. They're on a military build-up of massive proportions. They have an active and ambitious space program.
They will succeed. They are willing to pay the price and do whatever it takes. No matter how hard or dirty. Or how long it takes.
In fact, they are very happy if America and Europe spend themselves into bankruptcy. 'Can we help you go broke faster sir...' Because they're waiting, building, biding their time. Waiting for the moment when they can start their world empire by taking over the shipping lanes of Asia.
That's the difference.
That's the hard truth the Chinese get. Americans too.
On the other hand, the Euros think they can create another model. A more humane, more noble model. Hence their International Criminal Court among other projects. They think they can find a way to become a great power without the dirty, nasty hard, long slog. But -
BECAUSE THEY DENY HUMAN NATURE the Euros will fail and once again become a cold, lonely forgotten corner of the world --- that once was great. But failed because they lost sight of reality.
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