26 November 2010

Dream Job or Nightmare in Saudi Arabia

Things are a changin. Yep. Saudi is opening up. Nope. I don't mean they've decided to go liberal and close down their mosques, allow drag-racing or start opening up bars and brothels. No. No. No. It is STILL Saudi. There are still so many things you can't do. So many taboos and limitations -- especially if you're a woman. And Yet -

It is more popular than ever. Why?

Because for one it is safer than ever. That's right. It was just a few short years ago - as early as 2003 - that many of the westerners there kept (illegal;) firearms on their person and in there homes on the guarded compounds. Remember the Compound bombings? And the movie made about them : The Kingdom.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Riyadh_compound_bombings

For those not familiar with Saudi Arabia, it was a tacit agreement at high levels struck years ago between the country with the largest military in the world and the one with the largest oil reserves on the planet. Protection for Oil. It was also at this time, that the Saudi's began the long process of digging out of the dark ages.

They welcomed Western expertise, know-how and efficiency. What they wanted to shield themselves and their population from was the evil influence of the unwashed KAFIR. The Arabic for Infidel or one who doesn't believe in Islam.

The solution? Guarded Compounds. Very much like prisons on the outside. Like a piece of suburbia on the inside. This kept the Kafir tucked away where they wouldn't poison the local population with their alcohol, lewdness and lascivious lifestyle of Sodom.

It suited the Westerns too since not only could their safety be secured, but their was a little oasis of Western freedom and modern facilities which simply didn't exist on the outside.

But two major changes have taken place.

1. The security situation has vastly improved and,
2. The Saudis are on a major building binge.

The security situation has improved ---due to the efforts and policies put in place by His Majesty, The Guardian of the Two Holy Mosques (I'm always amused by the official title the King goes by....) --- to such an extent that many companies, like Vinnell Corp., have eliminated special allowances for danger - also known as Danger Pay - altogether.


And if you think there are a lot of cranes in China - per capita, Saudi may have the most on planet earth.

They are literally building WHOLE cities out of nothing. Where nothing but sand existed just a few short years ago, today you'll see cities rising up --literally-- out of the sand. And immense, gargantuan university campuses are under construction as well.

The building boom is on a scale almost unimaginable.

Those two things and hard times back in the West have begun bringing many many new workers to Saudi of late.

And as a result of that famous Law of Supply and Demand, more and more companies are beginning to look at the bottom line with a more squinted eye. And cutting back.

As there are more people than ever who are discovering the delicious tax free earnings available in the desert kingdom, companies don't have to offer as much as in times past. Fewer and fewer are willing to pay the generous expat packages of yesteryear. Case in point, school fees for the children. Gone. Compound housing? Companies are cutting back, reducing allowances and in many cases outright saying no - especially to those at the lower ends of the food chain.

So it's a mixed bag. It is easier to live in than ever before. And for people in construction and telecommunications there has never been more opportunity. But for those in the less glamourous fields or where demand is falling off, pay and conditions are deteriorating rapidly.

ESL is one great example. It is really opening up - at the low end. Those great jobs you heard about in the past. They are disappearing faster than a footprint in the sand during a sandstorm.

The Good News: There are more and more opportunities for people who have little experience and few credentials in the field. Most companies across the board are still asking for 5-10 years experience and superior credentials - in all fields.

But in ESL, there are more and more places now willing to take someone with only a year or two experience and a basic certificate. The salaries range between 2,000 and 3,500 US.

But consider the freedoms you'll have to give up for that: There is no alcohol in the desert kingdom. Except, of course, home brewed. If you're inside a compound - not a big deal as long as you're discrete. Some compounds even have bars. But outside, you always run the risk of a visiting MUTAWA. They are an unofficial force of religious police, but who have an extremely wide latitude of power.

There is no trial. No questions. If accused, you are guilty and there will be repercussions.

Then their other ideas about morality can be a serious inhibition to any sort of fun. For example -

You can be put in jail or unceremoniously shipped out of the country for holding hands or kissing in public. Even hugging can get you in trouble. And technically, you aren't even allowed to be with a member of the opposite sex who is not a family member.

You can kiss dating goodbye. Yes. There are parties at the embassies. But that is not quite the same thing as going to a club or relaxing with friends over a beer at the local pub.

And there is no culture. No cinemas. No live theatre or music. No art. No libraries. And precious few bookstores.  In fact, other than the Koran, many Saudis don't even read.

And yet - this is also one of the best things about living and working in Saudi. There's very little to spend money on.

That makes saving money easy -- if you're motivated and can entertain yourself. Otherwise - it can be a lonely place.

The economics: I found prices in Saudi to be on par with a the US in most respects. The one big exception is Petrol. About 1 Riyal (US 27 cents) per litre.

And the second best thing about life in Saudi - is that most companies still pay for your initial and annual return flights, housing, medical and all visa expenses. And of course - all salaries are tax free. The only exception is if you have the misfortune to be an American. The US is the only country on the planet which collects tax based on citizenship instead of residence.


All in all - Saudi is a great place to work and save money. It may be a bit short (to put it mildly) on culture, entertainment and lifestyle. As a result - most people head home (where ever that is) when their bucket of money is full.

18 November 2010

The Always Amazing Government

Governments everywhere daily demonstrate their stupidity. So why should I be surprised and why is this worth writing about? Maybe it is. Maybe it's not.

What I find so amazing is how they never learn from their mistakes  -- repeating them over and over and over again.  Each time they are white-faced with surprise.

The story today in all honesty could be from almost anywhere. So don't let the foreign names throw you. The Indonesian government deems it necessary to subsidize the price of petrol among other things. Fine. As they wish.

Today the news channels in Indonesia are all abuzz. Apparently the state owned petroleum company (and only authorized, legal distributor) of petrol has recently introduced a NON-subsidized line of petrol as well.

The way the system works - anybody - whether they live on $2 or $200/day can pull up to the pumps and fill up at the lower price. About 50 cents US/liter.


But picture this. You now have the choice when you roll up to the pumps to choose between the subsidized and the non-subsidized.

Stop just a minute and ask yourself (because obviously the government didn't ever think this through): Who is her right mind is going to choose to pay the higher price if there is absolutely NO DIFFERENCE between the two? And there is no other incentive or element of coercion.

So to combat the fact that everybody still opts for the cheaper - subsidized petrol - what does the state owned Pertamina do? They put each station on a fixed quota of the cheap stuff. But remember - it's still first-come, first-served.

There are no individual ration cards or any mechanism established to control who is given access to the subsidized goods. So...

You guessed it. Stations are running out of the cheap petrol.


Any sane, thinking, intelligent - even self-serving government that just wanted to save itself a lot of heartache would have thought things through a little better and either announced it well in advance and just gone cold-turkey.

'Sorry folks - No more subsidies. We just can't afford it anymore....' or

They would have provided some other mechanism to deal with the dual pricing confusion... or provided another way to subsidize the people they felt needed help.

Or.... There are a hundred other intelligent ways to deal with this.

This reminds me of the debacle several months ago when the government of idiots decided it wanted everybody to convert from using kerosene to LPG for cooking. In itself a wonderful idea.

But it was the way they went about it. In a word, they had no education mechanism set up to teach people how to use the LPG tanks. The price of the LPG was higher than the equivalent amount of kerosene.

And guess what?

Yep. It gets worse. The government in all its infinite wisdom decided it would give away small 3kg tanks of LPG to the poor.
Many, many of these literally exploded. Killing many people and leveling the only home many poor people had.

'Government' and 'intelligence' are two words which seldom seem to belong together...

17 November 2010

Dollar Days

For anybody who follows the currency markets, now is a great time to be holding US dollars.

The signals emerged a couple of days ago. Now we're seeing the dollar making a big comeback against all major currencies. I expect this trend to hold for a few weeks if not months.

16 November 2010

Thinking of Living in Bali? 3

So you've come to Indonesia, fallen in love with it and decided you want to live here long term?

Or you're a foreign man married to an Indonesian woman, but have just discovered that affords you zero rights.

Bottom line, you are not welcome in her country... What to do?

There are several ways to approach this. And strangely enough - none of them require you to be married to an Indonesian.

They are open to anyone.

That is to say - any marriage (by a foreign man to an Indonesian woman) is absolutely meaningless to the Indonesian government.

One is temporary and 3 are more permanent.

The first is what is known as a Sosial Budaya/Family Visit Visa.

This is a visa designed to allow you to soak up the culture or visit family for up to 6 months.

All you need is an Indonesian to sponsor you. Someone willing to submit some papers guaranteeing the government they will be responsible for you.

You don't have to be related. Travel agents are often willing to do this.


And getting this visa at most Indonesian embassies abroad is not too difficult. Note: You must get this while OUTSIDE Indonesia.

You'll need to present a valid return ticket to Indonesia and pay a small fee - about US$40.

And if you are passing through Singapore, there are visa agents who will do all the hard work for you - usually the same day. The fee is about S$200.

They initially grant it for 60 days. Then you'll need to renew it --in country-- every 30 days thereafter.

Simple enough in theory. The trouble is - someone has to go once to drop off the application.

Remember the lines at immigration offices in most countries? This is no different.

If you, your friend or family member do it yourself,
there will be at least one more trip to pick it up. And a fee of Rp250,000 (US$27)

Or again - there are agents who will take care of this for you. Expect fees to start around Rp1,000,000
(US$112)

Be forewarned though - on the last 2 renewals (month 5 & 6), the immigration officials become less and less kind.

They begin requiring supplementary documentation which must be signed off on at the Law Courts. Another government office.

It is not unheard of to be asked for a bribe at this juncture.

A Note about corruption. Indonesia is on the mend. In the last 5 years, it has gone from nearly the bottom of the list, to the middle now.

But it is still unimaginably corrupt by Westerner standards.
Corruption Index:
http://www.worldaudit.org/corruption.htm

If you have an agent doing this for you, your fee is going higher. 

If you or someone you know is doing it yourselves, it may take a half day 5 - 6 days during a 10 day period.

So it should be obvious that this is just a temporary fix while you sort out a more long term solution.

In the next installment: The actual letter (in Indonesian) your sponsor will need to sign. Then the Long Term Solutions. Pros and Cons, Ins and Outs, and the costs.

15 November 2010

Thinking of Living in Bali? 2

Indonesia is different from most countries when it comes to its visa and immigration policies.

It is VERY easy to get in as a tourist. Just show up at the airport, pay US$25 and voila - you're good to go for a month.

They've even recently changed the law. It's now possible to extend --in country--
for another month. Two months in all with only minimal hassle.


BUT - the whole story changes IF you want to live here. I have a theory about why I'll share toward the end of this post.

Anyway - just to give a flavor of the medieval mentality you'll encounter - let's say you marry an Indonesian.



In almost any other country, as soon as the authorities are satisfied the marriage is legit,  the foreign spouse is given a residency permit which usually allows one the right to live, work and engage in any legal business.

Not so in Indonesia.

Here if you are a foreign woman, married to an Indonesian man - all is well. He can sponsor you and you're legal-spegal.

But, if the marriage is between a foreign man an and Indonesia woman --- well --- let's just say they place a different value on women to men.

A woman can NOT sponsor a foreign husband. As unbelievable as it sounds, that's the law.

This is why most Indonesian women who marry foreigners choose to live abroad.

By the way - Singapore - which shares a similar Malay culture to Indonesia, abolished a similar law in the early 90's. Singaporian women are now on an equal footing with men.

The reason: The Singapore government realised it was losing many of its best and brightest women because of that law.



There are a number of ways to work around this problem, but they are a headache to say the least.

Now my theory about why? Actually this came straight from the proverbial horse's mouth. A government official recently admitted the reason is because they are afraid all the foreign men will come and take away all the high paying jobs. Go figure.

Next time: Ways to work around the problem...

12 November 2010

Korea to Dominate the World? No. But May Become Another Switzerland

Do I believe Korea has aspirations of world domination? Yes. But do I believe that they will be able to do much about that anytime soon? No.

Unlike Japan, I think they HAVE the chutzpah to pull it off. But there are several things standing in their way:


1.) They are, and for some time to come, will likely continue to be preoccupied with the North. Until that is somehow resolved, I don't think they can seriously entertain ideas of world dominance.

 2.) Corollary to the above. Largely because of the geopolitical threat from the North, they are dependent on America for their security. In some sense, you could even say they are an occupied country.

True domination is always accompanied by military might. Witness the enormous build-up of the PLA in China, and its growing percentage of their budget.

 And lastly-

3.) Even more so than their brother, Japan, Korea's undying adherence to Juche will keep them on their peninsula for the foreseeable future. Yes, they have the technology, but without the willingness to engage with and be sullied by foreigners and their ways Koreans will forever remain in their small corner of the world.

BUT the whole world is in a transition period like few times before.


Down the road - say a decade or so - Korea could emerge as a leading power, in spite of its shortcomings. But their prowess will be in business, not war.


If ---and this gets into another whole discussion--- what many military experts are saying is true, if defensive weapons are now in the assent and we are also are passing from the ballistic age to the age of smart weapons,

then this all strengthens the case for smaller countries becoming more dominant as the 21st century progresses.

City-states and small compact countries like Korea could have a strategic advantage.

It's a simple idea really: As offensive weapons loose their superiority, small is more easily defended. Welcome the re-emergence of the city-state. Small, agile, integrated and focused on business. Examples? Think Singapore and Hong Kong.

Just as Switzerland had its niche of diplomacy during the cold war, and still has its niche in banking and finely crafted luxury goods,


I see Korea developing its own set of strategic business niches in the future. And that will guarantee it a place at the world table of important countries.


But I don't see it dominating the world in the way that Japan tried (either during the 1930s or 1980s) and failed.

11 November 2010

Thinking of Living, Working or Doing Business in Bali?

This is a short introduction to a series of pieces on the ins and outs of living, working --and if you choose to-- setting up a business in Indonesia. It will stretch the limits of credulity.

Because the bureaucracy is a labyrinth of byzantine inefficiency, corruption and incompetence that boggles the mind. Yet once you successfully jump through the hoops or emerge from the maze (choose your metaphor), Indonesia has much to offer.  But be forewarned. It is still a third world country.

When I first came to Indonesia, though I had lived around the world, I soon realised none of the common sense that operates elsewhere worked here...

More to follow....

10 November 2010

Korea at an Inflection point. What's next..?

I'm always amazed when someone predicts the end of some country or sees it taking over the world.

Back in the 80's and early 90's Japan was going to take over the world. By the late 90's,  it was a pariah and laughing stock. Couldn't do anything right. Or so many writers made it sound. More recently is has been the Yellow Peril or China.

So - this article caught my attention.

The Miracle Is Over. Now What?
South Korea boomed by turning a rural economy into an industrial power. To keep growing, it's going to have to make some fundamental—and difficult—changes.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704791004575519703277433756.html

I believe this writer poses some very pertinent questions, but then gives us no direction. Having lived in Korea recently, here's my take:

Yes. Korea is at a turning point. Great. Will it make the necessary changes? Will it continue to follow Japan's model?

It is said, if you understand a person's soul, you know his character and if you know his character you can accurately predict his behavior. I believe this can be true for a people as well, especially one as homogeneous as Korea.

When I was in Korea, I was struck by just how much it reminded me of Japan twenty years earlier. [Things which have since changed in Japan].

In so many respects. The work ethic. The closed society. The obsessive drive to be the best - no matter the price. The state control of the export led economy. The dearth of women in the workplace. The xenophobia toward foreigners. But also the genuinely warm, beautiful people once you get to know them.

Just how xenophobic?

One example: Korea is one of the few countries where you cannot buy a local SIM card for your mobile phone and use your own phone. Nope. You have to rent or buy a Korean phone if you want mobile service.

Or if you want to shop at one of Korea's online shops, places like Gmarket, you'll need a credit card issued in Korea and a Korean National ID number to proceed.

But I see differences too. And those will make all the difference in the years to come:

During the 98 crisis, we saw Korea move aggressively compared with other Asian countries. And it recovered more quickly than any other. This is instructive.

I see Korea acting aggressively again. Sure it will make mistakes.
In this regard, it is more like the US: Fire, Aim, Ready...
But it is their persistence and drive to be the best that I believe will lead them to find the solution or solutions that works for them -- their culture and economy.

Case in point, there have already been some notable (and laughable) attempts to diversify its economy.

One is trying to make Seoul, and Korea in general into a tourist destination. The second is the attempt to establish itself as a center for medical tourism.

Anyone living in Korea instantly laughed at both of these propositions.

To be very cruel, blunt and honest. Let's consider the tourism first.
What does Korea have to attract tourists?

Does it have beaches like Thailand or Bali? Mountains? Spiritual retreats?
Does it have culture or history that is of interest to non-Koreans? Or is it the
fountainhead of some established religion?

And more importantly, is it open to outsiders? Can and do its people speak English?
And does it even have an established leisure industry for its own people?

Hmmmm. No on all counts.
North Korea has accurately been called the Hermit Kingdom, but the South shares the same culture.
An insistence on Juche or self-reliance which resists all foreign influence.

Case in point:
It is still difficult to get around most parts of Seoul - the capital city - without some knowledge of Korean.

It is not hard to see how all this will impact its goals - like medical tourism.

Yes. They clearly have the technical expertise and are price competitive. So they may achieve some limited success, but they will only become a destination if they can offer something India, Thailand and Singapore do not.

Another example which demonstrates a fundamental difference between Japan and shows just how bold, aggressive and hungry Korea is.

While Japan has tried to promote and teach its language and culture abroad, it has never tried to get any one else to adopt its writing system for use in their own language. Not Hiragana, Katakana or its version of Chinese characters. They were and are happy to remain different and unique on their island.

The Koreans on the other hand, believe so much in their Hangul script, they even propose it as a solution for other lands and peoples.
Hangul may help others record history
http://www.mygoguryeo.net/news-view.htm?p=&n=34

This shows a will to expand and take on a role in the world. It is also instructive.

So what will happen? Will Korea open up to the world? Allow expanded immigration?
Permit women an equal footing in the work place? Get the government out of its economy?
And diversify away from its export focus?

Yes to all of the above. But not all at once. The economy will come first. Then they will go down the line from least culturally painful to most. Juche will be the last to be abandoned. And women will be barred from most posts for the foreseeable future.

I expect one of the first ideas they will hit on --unknowingly imitating China-- will be to try and tap their diaspora of entrepreneurs. To lure them home with enticing incentives if they will set up or move their businesses to Korea.

Many women will be among this group, thus leapfrogging their male counterparts still working for Korea Inc. And in this way, they will be begrudgingly accepted as part of the solution. 

In sum, I cast my vote of confidence that Korea will find new and better ways to deal with its problems effectively and remain a power to be reckoned with well into the future.

As an example of one such way, and which I've saved for the end of this blog: Korea, Seoul to be exact, has just recently become a destination for foodies.

Who would have thought?
Seoul Food
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704901104575424473797840454.html

One can only wonder and watch...

09 November 2010

Alternatives to Oil Presage Big Changes Ahead

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703805704575594112825763700.html?mod=googlenews_wsj
Honda Looks to Grass to Resolve Its Power Needs

This is a very interesting article, but not for its being a trivial-pursuit type of conversation piece. And not for its geek factor or
even its environmental angle. No. But because it is one more hint as to a coming seismic change in how we live and the fuel we'll be using in the years to come.

As of now, most people around this planet still rely on oil in one form or another. Fuel for your car, warmth and cooling
for your home and a thousand countless other things.

And the result of this is - well - pollution, wars over oil etc...

But what will happen when electricity can be produced from renewable grass? (As in this article.) Or when we have 100
different natural alternatives to petrol/gasoline for your auto? Alternatives that are 100% renewable and either don't pollute
at all or only pollute a fraction of what oil and and its derivatives do today?

In fact - more and more people are turning used cooking oil into just that.
http://www.biodieselworks.com/home-fried-fuel/
Home Fried Fuel

And then there are those who are looking at other alternatives: manure for example.
http://www.enn.com/top_stories/article/9782
Vehicle Institute Works to Develop 'Biogas'-powered Car

But the really interesting thing to contemplate is:
How are things going to change when there are various, viable,
cheap, 100% renewable and natural, clean alternatives to oil?

The price of oil is going to crash.
Can you imagine the oil producing countries - especially of the Middle East?
Do you think they will be able to maintain their current political and economic leverage?

Or Big Oil?
And if oil importing countries are no longer beholden to the producers, how might that
begin changing the balance of power around the world?

And what about the business and investment opportunities that will open up?

Right now, it's just a minuscule cloud on the horizon. Tomorrow it may change the way we live.