I'm always amazed when someone predicts the end of some country or sees it taking over the world.
Back in the 80's and early 90's Japan was going to take over the world. By the late 90's, it was a pariah and laughing stock. Couldn't do anything right. Or so many writers made it sound. More recently is has been the Yellow Peril or China.
So - this article caught my attention.
The Miracle Is Over. Now What?
South Korea boomed by turning a rural economy into an industrial power. To keep growing, it's going to have to make some fundamental—and difficult—changes.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704791004575519703277433756.html
I believe this writer poses some very pertinent questions, but then gives us no direction. Having lived in Korea recently, here's my take:
Yes. Korea is at a turning point. Great. Will it make the necessary changes? Will it continue to follow Japan's model?
It is said, if you understand a person's soul, you know his character and if you know his character you can accurately predict his behavior. I believe this can be true for a people as well, especially one as homogeneous as Korea.
When I was in Korea, I was struck by just how much it reminded me of Japan twenty years earlier. [Things which have since changed in Japan].
In so many respects. The work ethic. The closed society. The obsessive drive to be the best - no matter the price. The state control of the export led economy. The dearth of women in the workplace. The xenophobia toward foreigners. But also the genuinely warm, beautiful people once you get to know them.
Just how xenophobic?
One example: Korea is one of the few countries where you cannot buy a local SIM card for your mobile phone and use your own phone. Nope. You have to rent or buy a Korean phone if you want mobile service.
Or if you want to shop at one of Korea's online shops, places like Gmarket, you'll need a credit card issued in Korea and a Korean National ID number to proceed.
But I see differences too. And those will make all the difference in the years to come:
During the 98 crisis, we saw Korea move aggressively compared with other Asian countries. And it recovered more quickly than any other. This is instructive.
I see Korea acting aggressively again. Sure it will make mistakes.
In this regard, it is more like the US: Fire, Aim, Ready...
But it is their persistence and drive to be the best that I believe will lead them to find the solution or solutions that works for them -- their culture and economy.
Case in point, there have already been some notable (and laughable) attempts to diversify its economy.
One is trying to make Seoul, and Korea in general into a tourist destination. The second is the attempt to establish itself as a center for medical tourism.
Anyone living in Korea instantly laughed at both of these propositions.
To be very cruel, blunt and honest. Let's consider the tourism first.
What does Korea have to attract tourists?
Does it have beaches like Thailand or Bali? Mountains? Spiritual retreats?
Does it have culture or history that is of interest to non-Koreans? Or is it the
fountainhead of some established religion?
And more importantly, is it open to outsiders? Can and do its people speak English?
And does it even have an established leisure industry for its own people?
Hmmmm. No on all counts.
North Korea has accurately been called the Hermit Kingdom, but the South shares the same culture.
An insistence on Juche or self-reliance which resists all foreign influence.
Case in point:
It is still difficult to get around most parts of Seoul - the capital city - without some knowledge of Korean.
It is not hard to see how all this will impact its goals - like medical tourism.
Yes. They clearly have the technical expertise and are price competitive. So they may achieve some limited success, but they will only become a destination if they can offer something India, Thailand and Singapore do not.
Another example which demonstrates a fundamental difference between Japan and shows just how bold, aggressive and hungry Korea is.
While Japan has tried to promote and teach its language and culture abroad, it has never tried to get any one else to adopt its writing system for use in their own language. Not Hiragana, Katakana or its version of Chinese characters. They were and are happy to remain different and unique on their island.
The Koreans on the other hand, believe so much in their Hangul script, they even propose it as a solution for other lands and peoples.
Hangul may help others record history
http://www.mygoguryeo.net/news-view.htm?p=&n=34
This shows a will to expand and take on a role in the world. It is also instructive.
So what will happen? Will Korea open up to the world? Allow expanded immigration?
Permit women an equal footing in the work place? Get the government out of its economy?
And diversify away from its export focus?
Yes to all of the above. But not all at once. The economy will come first. Then they will go down the line from least culturally painful to most. Juche will be the last to be abandoned. And women will be barred from most posts for the foreseeable future.
I expect one of the first ideas they will hit on --unknowingly imitating China-- will be to try and tap their diaspora of entrepreneurs. To lure them home with enticing incentives if they will set up or move their businesses to Korea.
Many women will be among this group, thus leapfrogging their male counterparts still working for Korea Inc. And in this way, they will be begrudgingly accepted as part of the solution.
In sum, I cast my vote of confidence that Korea will find new and better ways to deal with its problems effectively and remain a power to be reckoned with well into the future.
As an example of one such way, and which I've saved for the end of this blog: Korea, Seoul to be exact, has just recently become a destination for foodies.
Who would have thought?
Seoul Food
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704901104575424473797840454.html
One can only wonder and watch...
Very nice posts! :)
ReplyDeleteJust want to ask your opinion since you know them more than I do.
About Korea, If they're trying to follow some of Japan's ways. OR They're really following Japan's ways, Do you think this would end up into a "world domination craving?"
We, all know that Korea has some technologies also in terms of explosive, bombs and others as well. What do you think?
Thank you. You raise a very interesting question.
ReplyDeleteDo I believe Korea has aspirations of world domination? Yes. But do I believe that they will be able to do much about that anytime soon? No.
Unlike Japan, I think they HAVE the chutzpah to pull it off. But there are several things standing in their way:
1.) They are, and for some time to come, will likely continue to be preoccupied with the North. Until that is somehow resolved, I don't think they can seriously entertain ideas of world dominance.
2.) Corollary to the above. Largely because of the geopolitical threat from the North, they are dependent on America for their security. In some sense, you could even say they are an occupied country.
True domination is always accompanied by military might. Witness the enormous build-up of the PLA in China, and its growing percentage of their budget.
And lastly-
3.) Even more so than their brother, Japan, Korea's undying adherence to Juche will keep them on their peninsula for the foreseeable future. Yes, they have the technology, but without the willingness to engage with and be sullied by foreigners and their ways Koreans will forever remain in their small corner of the world.
BUT the whole world is in a transition period like few times before.
Down the road - say a decade or so - Korea could emerge as a leading power, in spite of its shortcomings. But their prowess will be in business, not war.
If ---and this gets into another whole discussion--- what many military experts are saying is true, if defensive weapons are now in the assent and if we are also are passing from the ballistic age to the age of smart weapons,
then this all strengthens the case for smaller countries becoming more dominant as the 21st century progresses. City-states and small compact countries like Korea could have a strategic advantage.
It's a simple idea really: As offensive weapons loose their superiority, small is more easily defended. Welcome the re-emergence of the city-state. Small, agile, integrated and focused on business. Examples? Think Singapore and Hong Kong.
Just as Switzerland had its niche of diplomacy during the cold war, and still has its niche in banking and finely crafted luxury goods,
I see Korea developing its own set of strategic business niches in the future. And that will guarantee it a place at the world table of important countries.
But it will not dominate the world in the way that Japan tried (either during the 1930s or 1980s) and failed.
This comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDelete